Though I desperately want Kamala to win this, I honestly don’t think that there is a damn thing that her campaign can do to influence things.
At this point, Trump and his minions can literally say anything, regardless of how, inaccurate, deceitful, dishonest, and toxic it is and the needle won’t budge. Ten years ago or so, his actions would have totally torpedoed any western world candidate’s chances. Now? Nothing.
~10 years ago Trump said he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose a single vote.
The (R) fascists have been saying the quiet part out loud since Palin. hell, since forever. They know their people don’t care.
It used to be that politicians thought they needed to court a “undecided” middle.
Now they know they just have to scare their own folks into voting. There is no undecided middle.
Let’s not get too worried about not running up as big margins as we’d like in early voting. The simple explanation is that Republicans aren’t as opposed to early voting as they used to be. And don’t fret about the polls. There are ton of biased Republican-leaning polls and few if any Democratic-leaning polls. When the overrated 538 takes an average of biased polls it gets a biased average. What is key is turnout. The turnout will be massive, and that’s a big advantage for the Democrats.
I hope so. I hope America can come together and turn out like we did in 2020.
That is not what they do. Polls ain’t skewed by that.
Look. Completely agree on early voting. Would I be happier with the usual fraction of baked in early D votes? Of course. But yes last time Ds, especially older Ds, mailed in during Covid in particular, and Rs were discouraged from early and mail in as part of the sow distrust narrative.
And to get crazed about a point up or down with a tool that has as an accuracy of plus minus three to four is not too rational. It would be standard for there to be a big standard systemic polling error; there is every reason to think that error over rates Trump support this time.
Democratic turn out has to be big. Team Harris has done everything possible to reach out in the other direction as well, and hopefully that translates at least to some previous reluctant Trump voters at least leaving it blank.
Can I panic yet? I feel like panicking. 
New Brunswick polling showed a late surge for the Liberals. Extend the Wikipedia trend curve to Election Day, and the polls are arguably even more accurate,
Am I seriously advising that we analyze the American election polls that way? No, because opinions change and trends reverse.
Rather than focusing on whether the polls are accurate, I suggest using the polls to learn about how the race has changed. Polls tell us that Harris is a stronger candidate than Biden was. They do not tell us who is going to win.
Other than a few fanboys of Musk, I don’t see Trump gaining much. He needs to keep rallying and be in the media to reming the losers that voted for him 2020 to show up. But there is a feel of exhaustion in all his rallies and stunts. He went to talk to a crowd and everything is off the cuff. So he could not remember the word deep fryer to explain his McDonalds stunt. This is not the plan that will add voters. There may have been some shifts in independents, but they took place in August and September. Not much now. Kamala is counting on independents turning up, though. For her it is crucial. If an independent was leaning to Trump…not so much now. They are hard to convince Trump votes are worth the time.
Me too! Let’s hold hands.
What Tim Walz said on TDS the other day sorta had an appeal to me. Maybe I’m grasping at straws, but the idea kinda appealed to me - that there are SOME not entirely insane longtime Rs who MIGHT be respond to good reasons to vote against TFG. Or at least stay home.
I continue to struggle with the idea that nearly 50% of my country’s voting public is so stupid or depraved as to vote for this guy… If it turns out that they are, we will get what we deserve, and I’ll just kick back and watch the country burn.
I talked to a lot of voters last week. Inflation hurts. “I was better off under Trump.” “I only buy American, I’m not worried about Trump’s tarifs.”
Yeah, I’m panicking, too.
I’m not convinced high turnout is a net positive for Democrats. The democratic coalition now contains a lot of college educated suburbanites, that do tend to vote. Its part of why they have done so well in special elections. Presidential elections bring out a lot of fringe voters that Trump tends to do better with.
It might be good to remember that that 50% of voters or 1/3 of the public that would be/is completely fine with authoritarian rule is nearly universal.
We see the same numbers in here in Holland, in Germany, France, Spain, Brasil.
The only way to keep them from getting their way is making sure the people that care about democracy are involved and that actual democratic (as in valuing democracy) politicians get more votes than the populists / fascists / authoritarians. When you fail to do so you end up like Russia.
You can’t panic until you’ve voted. And done at least one other thing.
So I can’t panic until sometime next week, and until I’ve written my letter to the paper. (Which yes, they will also post online; and which I’ll probably send in that way.)
There is definitely a Republicans for Harris movement. I don’t remember that happening last time.
How much of it there is I don’t know. But it exists.
I don’t know why the 50% who despise Trump can be said to “deserve” what he’ll do to this country (and the world). I don’t think I deserve this. (but I agree with the rest of your post)
Scroll up to post #1052:
Better hope it’s more than that, because last time Biden only won by half a football stadium’s worth of voters (the 44,000 vote margin in Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia.)
That’s a good - and scary fact. Makes you realize how vulnerable democracies are, if all it takes is 20% (or fewer) of voters from the sane portion joins ranks with them…
I understand your emotion, but ALL OF us tolerate a political system with rules and institutions that permit such outsized influence by a rabid minority. I’m not sure of what would be a possible alternative - maybe ranked choice voting, primary tweaks, a more responsible media… - but Trump, and his appeal, is reflective of our country as a whole.
.
All that is needed is is to stop giving voting power based on land. every American should have the same relative representation in the senate, congress and the EC. None of that 2 senators per state bullshit- 1 senator for every 3 million Americans.
In fairness to Russians, they were never in the position we find ourselves–with a centuries-long democracy that has been gradually eroded by pro-authoritarian forces. They lived under the rule of authoritarians for all those centuries and more (despite a brief flutter of democracy-adjacent phenomena in the 1990s, which Putin quickly extinguished).
Part of the problem is that “valuing democracy” is too abstract for many. “Freedom” is likewise abstract. “Resentment against The Other” seems more real to too many Americans.
All of that would likely improve our situation, but of course getting it would require a Constitutional Convention—something that right-wing extremists have been salivating over for years. If one happened, they would be ready to use it to further their fascist ends.
As for panicking: I’m nowhere near as confident of anti-fascist victory as some here seem to be. At the same time I do have confidence that many who reject right-wing extremism are prepared for what the right plans to do to install their cult leader. I do think the cult won’t find consolidating power as easy as they may be assuming it will be.