Stop Panicking!

Just watched some clips of the MSG rally and wow… the Puerto Rico comment was one among many.

All democrats are degenerates and jew-haters, joking about black people carving watermelon for Halloween and calling Kamala the antichrist.

Unbelievable.

I’m really surprised Ghouliani’s disparagement of Palestinians hasn’t gotten more ink. Rudy was (is?) actually a part of the maga team, not just some rando doofus comedian most people have never heard of.

“Residents of Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories do not have voting representation in the United States Congress, and are not entitled to electoral votes for president.” - Wikipedia

However, many mainland residents of Puerto Rican origin do vote for President.

His supporters aren’t the only people in consideration, and aren’t an unbreakable monolith. Not everyone who voted Trump is a full-blown “fool some of the people all of the time” MAGAt or enthusiastic about Trump. More to the point, there is anecdotal evidence that Trump has made statements that have caused some people who voted Trump in the past to change their minds.

Is it really inconceivable that the Puerto Rico bashing was stark enough to push some socially-conservative voters of Puerto Rican or other Latin descent (if they don’t distinguish born-citizen Puerto Ricans…) to realize that the leopard will gladly eat their face? They don’t have to vote Harris, they just have to stay home, and there doesn’t have to be that many to possibly change the result in a state like Pennsylvania.

TL, DR: nibbling at the edges is a thing, and this election is being decided at the edges. :slightly_smiling_face:

Yes roughly two to one. Typically though they are a low turnout group, barely breaking 50%, compared to the overall of roughly two thirds.

580K eligible Latino voters in PA. More than half of Puerto Rican descent. Going from 64% Harris to 75% Harris or even just increasing turnout up closer to average, let alone both, would be big.

Kind of. I mean, some individuals, sure, but for the last nine years, I’ve been watching Democrats and other left-of-center folks crow over Trump’s words: this time he’s alienated them, for sure! This quote will have repercussions!

And I’m sure they do, but what I’m not sure is whether it’s enough to move the needle. He’s said appalling things before. He’s still here.

It’s not going to make a difference to his supporters, they like him for who he. They ARE the minority though, and anything that gets people on the other side to the polls helps just as much. Biden did not get 81 million people to vote for him, not in a million years. A very large chunk of those voters are only there to vote against Trump.

Alienating just a few in the right states for the course of eight days only is all we are looking for.

Maybe in two weeks our voter public goldfish minds would move on. But this minute there are some unsure about bothering to vote or not leaning on each side in a few critical, and per polling reports, expected to be very close states.

Anyone one of those voters who decide to stay home or to come out could very well be the tipping point voter.

I did not know that there were so many in Pennsylvania until I saw a Reddit post breaking it down. The numbers for NYS, and to a lesser extent, Florida don’t matter too much, and the numbers in most swing states aren’t that high, but if this makes only 1% of Pennsylvanian Puertoriqueno Trump voters stay home, it would make a noticeable difference in the vote totals.

They don’t even have to stay home, just not cast a vote for President.

Ignore the polls, just vote. Updates to my blog. Politics: a view from the prairie: Polls are....polls

By raw numbers sure, most haven’t heard of him. Especially the codgers on this board. Doesn’t mean he’s not popular. He recently sold out two shows at MSG for live tapings of his podcast. Sold out in minutes. He got a lot of heat (the show business good kind) for his appearance on the Tom Brady roast. He treated the rally like it was another roast.

I’m still panicking, but I’ve been finding that I calm down a little bit when I play around with this map showing donor support.

Gift link, I’m not sure what will happen to it when my WaPo subscription expires in two days.

https://wapo.st/4hqVMxw

The preview isn’t working but like I indicated above, it’s a WaPo article with an interactive zip code based map showing the number of donors and dollar amounts for each candidate. The analysis of the map is unfortunately horrible, they don’t even give statewide totals on swing states……instead wasting print inches on “revelations” like “black donors in GA strongly prefer Harris”.

The map looks horrible for Arizona and Nevada, but the maps of PA, WI and NC give me lots of hope. I’ve spent a lot of time on the NC map in particular.

My zip code,in a blue leaning area on the edge of a mid-sized city, shows 1000 Harris donors to 231 Trump donors.i was pleasantly surprised by this, my most optimistic guess would have been that my neighborhood was for Harris 2 to 1.

The zip codes in what I think of as the bluest areas of the state, Asheville, Chapel Hill, and Raleigh, show intense support for Harris……lots of zip codes with 2 or 3 thousand Harris donors and a few hundred (or less) Trump donors.

The red areas of the state are mostly pink……while there are more Trump donors there is still lots of Harris support……300 or 400 Trump donors to 200 or so Harris donors seems typical. There are a few zip codes where the ratio is higher, but not nearly enough of them to offset the blue areas.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem even bluer than that at first glance.

My optimism may be misguided, because I have no idea how donor data is going to relate to voter data, but at least it’s something to calm me down for the next week.

PA in particular has gone blue in every election since 92 except in 2016, it’s not much of a battleground state.

Oh come on, this guy’s a fucking nobody, especially compared to Giuliani. He may be somewhat well known in right wing circles, but Giuliani is a well-known (in all circles) Trump associate who just called Palestinians terrorists and no one seems to be noticing that. That was my point, not that this guy whose name I can’t remember without looking it up has a maga podcast that bro-dudes love because he’s racist and homophobic.

I was flabbergasted that my zip code (a conservative, rural area of one of the most conservative counties in Michigan) had two more Harris donors than Trump donors when I checked last week! Now, in dollars donated, Trump collected a lot more from my zip code than Harris has, but I’m just impressed that we are outnumbering the Trump donors. Driving around seeing all these Trump signs in my area can get discouraging. This lets me know there’s a silent bunch of Harris supporters around me who are willing to put money up for Harris even if they’re too nervous about putting a sign up for her.

I won’t change your mind because you already know everything you need to know about a guy you don’t know. But just so you know, his podcasts are rarely political but they do reach an important demographic. Before he appeared at the rally I had no idea who he would support. Almost all of his guests are comics.

The videos of his podcast routinely reach over 3 million views each on YouTube alone. Millions more on other platforms like Spotify. At this point he’s somewhere around 200 million total views. On the other hand no one is listening to Guiliani. Like it or not the media landscape has changed.

But he’s not, nor has he ever been a part of the Trump campaign. Yes, what he said is shitty, and is rightfully hurting Trump. But again, my point was how are Ghouliani’s shitty things still being largely ignored-- that’s all I was pondering. Rudy called the Palestinians in Gaza terrorists and said they’re dangerous to Americans!

I think you’re taking exception with the fact that I called this guy a nobody, and that strikes me as really odd. Would it make you feel better if I said he’s a brilliant young comic with millions of loyal followers, a wicked-sharp tongue and his finger on the pulse of America? I will if you want because his overall popularity was never my point.

Giuliani’s comments can be narrowcast effectively on social media with a Michigan Arab community focus to have impact. The impact of the Puerto Rican comments are only possible with broadcasting it.

Huh?
Oh, I get it…you’re being funny!