While religions may have some things in common with longtermism, it generally isn’t the core of the belief system. Longtermism, I believe, is a specific practice that justifies itself solely by utilitarianism.
That said, I think the point of asking “secular belief” in the question is just to leave out any more stupid religious beliefs. Logntermism is stupid without needing to appeal to anything supernatural.
The 600 million years have nothing to do with climate change. It’s about the fact that the sun is slowly getting brighter. It does this by about 1% every 100 million years. The 5 billion years is because at that point the Earth will bet absorbed by the sun.
the Earth will be absorbed
I dunno; if you’re in the U.S., you may have noticed the explosion of legal gambling options in recent decades. I don’t think it’ll take 5 billion years for the Earth to be “bet absorbed,” at this rate.
Yes, I know. I was trying to add to your point that ignoring current problems in order to worry about the eventual damage and then destruction of the Earth by the sun may result in an Earth made uninhabitable by heat much sooner, though by an entirely different route.
The Borg will assimilate it long before that.
Somehow it reminds me of a Ponzi scheme. Or some kind of scheme, anyway.
It’s a bit like, “You can spend millions [of peoples lives] today in order to earn a fantastic return of trillions of happier and healthier people tomorrow! Just sign here.”
Well yeah, if you want to fertilize the desert, just overfeed the vultures.
I might be missing some of the finer points. But a comparison with religion or cultish thinking does not seem unreasonable to me.
ITSM just a preference to keep this topic focused on non-religious manifestations of this phenomenon.
I think long-termism is a rich guy conceit.
I think that there is a lack of, shall we say, medium term planning in most of the world today. The idea of taking on some short term pain for long term gain never plays well political and leads to things like boom and bust economic cycles and a lack of infrastructure maintenance.
I think we are highly invested in what happens to us in our lifetime and somewhat invested in the idea of making the world a better place for our real and tangible children and grandchildren. But once you look out beyond that, not so much.
It’s hard for us to feel too invested in the fates of imaginary great-great-great-great-great grandchildren, it’s just too distant and any imagined idea you or I have of what the world will look like in 200, 300 years, much less 2000 or 200,000, is widely speculative and most certainly wrong. It’s probably as wrong as any guess that my ancestors 300 years ago might have made about how the world would look in the 21st century.
And I don’t think there is any amount of money that ancestor could have invested that would make the world a better place than it is today. And to be optimistic, I think if that ancestor could see the world today, could see the way the average person lives, it would be way better than any future he could’ve constructed from his imagination and any long term initiative they would’ve taken would have been a waste of time and effort.
I used to sell and program home automation systems for the multi-millionaire set, and I’m reminded of this potential client that announced very imperiously at the beginning of the meeting that he intended for this house to have a 500 year lifespan. I think he was looking for me to assure him that the system he was buying would last 500 years. I told the guy that I could not promise him that the product or the company would be in existence in 500 years. I also told him that I sincerely doubted that whatever electrical infrastructure existed in 500 years would support the system and I closed by telling him that anyone that would make this promise was lacking in integrity. I didn’t get the job and I’m assuming he hired someone that would tell him what he wanted to hear.
Isn’t that what being rich is all about?
Thanks, Ann - great post!
It’s certainly possible to build a house that’s capable of standing for 500 years. That doesn’t mean the beds aren’t going to need new mattresses for 500 years, or that the residents are going to be able to eat for 500 years the same dinner that’s being cooked today. And whoever lives there 500 years later may want or need to eat an entirely different diet. – and I rather doubt the house is going to last 500 years, or even 100, if nobody fixes the roof in all that time.
The proper length of time to plan for depends on what you’re planning. There’s a famous story about some place in England planting trees hundreds of years ago that were deliberately meant to replace beams that were supposed to last that number of years in a building that was indeed still standing when the original beams started to go, and got its beams properly replaced.
Some types of planning make sense on that scale. Others don’t. Very little, if anything, makes sense to plan on a scale of millions of years. On a scale of billions, they’re just talking nonsense.
Or the Swedish Naval Forest, planted in 1830-1840 so that there would be plenty of tall straight timber available for masts and spars.
I for one wouldn’t commit my descendants to a 500-year interstellar colony voyage; who knows if 500 years is viable and faster options would likely be developed in the meantime.
A good point. But I expect other benefits have accrued from the existence of that forest and/or from the use of the wood for other purposes.
Some of the question for planning, of any length, has to be what the additional effects of the plan are likely to be. And some parts of all the planning are always going to be, at best, a guess.
The world won’t get too hot for humans due to global warming. It’ll get too hot for people to live in some laces they currently live, which could result in truly awful famines and wars.
In the distant future, the Sun’s radiation will just get so high that the carbon cycle will end and all life will die.
So, if we’re going to go all longtermism why don’t we just learn how to manage that pesky Sun, huh?
Yeah, yeah, it’s impractical. But you can actually pretty much count on the Sun’s expansion happening eventually.
Just move the Earth a bit further away from the Sun. And keep moving it as the Sun gets hotter. That should work until the red giant phase.
Orbit, shmorbit. I don’t want to haul around the Earth like it’s a stellar trailer home, I want to manipulate the Sun.
Sorry but that requires us to have ordered the Deluxe Sun. You know, the one with leather-trimmed velour seats and extra cupholders. We just have the standard Sun, so we’ll just have to make do.