Straight Dope 3/10/2023: Will Elon Musk's Starlink satellites ruin space travel?

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@Jasmine

Once all of these satellites are added, any terrorist group that could get their hands on, say, 100 rockets that can reach low earth orbit could destroy satellites and create a cascade effect that could blossom into a true disaster.

A “terrorist group that could get their hands on, say, 100 rockets that can reach low earth orbit,” wouldn’t be a terrorist group; it would be a major strategic power that could force the English to actually eat their jellied eels.

Stranger

[Jasmine]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

A “terrorist group that could get their hands on, say, 100 rockets that can reach low earth orbit,” wouldn’t be a terrorist group; it would be a major strategic power that could force the English to actually eat their jellied eels.

Granted, but the threat is still there.

I look up, “jellied eels”, and they look disgusting. LOL

[Sam_Stone]

For a little perspective, there are about 26,000 pieces of trackable material in orbit right now. And the latest Russian ASAT test in 2021 caused about 2,000 pieces of trackable debris, and anywhere from 10,000 to 100,000 pieces large enough to be hazardous. The 2007 Chinese ASAT test did about the same.

From the cite below:

More than 25,000 objects larger than 10 cm are known to exist. The estimated population of particles between 1 and 10 cm in diameter is approximately 500,000. The number of particles larger than 1 mm exceeds 100 million. As of January 2022, the amount of material orbiting the Earth exceeded 9,000 metric tons.

https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/faq/#

Compared to 500,000 pieces of junk big enough to wreck a satellite and 100 million pieces that can damage satellites, the risk from a very low constellation of satellites in known positions that can manoever away from risk, and that leave LEO within a few years if they fail, is a very manageable issue.

[Ludovic]

I think this was the best column yet in the revival: it brought up some issues I wasn’t aware about, without engaging in strawmen, and even informing me of some facts don’t seem outlandishly implausible. I’m glad to see this on a - shall I say it - upward trajectory.