# Strasburg out for season and all of 2011 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 27, 2010, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717 "2010-08-27T21:25:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/1 "2010-08-27T21:25:51Z")
I don’t really follow baseball, but this caught my eye. [CNN Link](http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/08/27/nationals-phenom-stephen-strasburg-will-likely-miss-2011-season/?hpt=T2) Torn ligament in the elbow. Tommy John surgery. Ouch for him. Ouch for the Nationals, too. ETA: The article says possibly out for 2011, so it is not definite. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/2 "2010-08-27T21:34:04Z")
I heard that story today and thought - I couldn’t come up with a worse scenario if I tried. They’ve destroyed another great young pitcher by overuse. But then I realized I’m not sure if overuse is what caused this. I hope he is getting paid well for his first few years under contract. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/3 "2010-08-27T21:35:30Z")
I know he got a huge contract when he signed as the top draft pick. Dunno if that was guaranteed money or not… ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/4 "2010-08-27T21:37:37Z")
I hope he’s wisely invested his guaranteed money. It’s premature to say that. Some pitchers have come back fine from the surgery, Tommy John, for one. And Strasberg will only be 23 at the beginning of the 2012 season, and certainly will have time left for a long career. And it just goes to show that the idea of babying young pitchers along doesn’t stop them from getting hurt. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/5 "2010-08-27T21:38:18Z")
I thought I had heard on the radio today that the Nats had been pretty careful with him. This sucks, but the good news is that he is young and hopefully he won’t have lost anything once he’s recovered. The good news is, it shouldn’t affect the Nationals’ playoff hopes. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/6 "2010-08-27T21:43:20Z")
> [@Telemark](#): > > I heard that story today and thought - I couldn’t come up with a worse scenario if I tried. They’ve destroyed another great young pitcher by overuse. Nonsense. He’s pitched 135 innings this year. His contract was for 15 million. I’m sure some of that was signing bonus, some was salary. All that would be guaranteed, but I don’t know how much of it might have been performance bonuses, which would not be. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/7 "2010-08-27T21:47:50Z")
AUUUUUGGGHHH!!! He may come back, maybe even as a starter, but he’ll never throw 100 mph again. Being a Nats fan sucks. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/8 "2010-08-27T21:52:32Z")
Don’t many pitchers come back stronger from Tommy John than they were before? Of course, if the injury is because he’s more fragile than the average MLB starter, this doesn’t bode well for his long-term prospects. And as **Frank** noted, I thought the Nationals were really taking pains to limit his pitch count, making things as easy as possible. This doesn’t look to be another case of Dusty Baker “managing” a pitching staff. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2010, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/9 "2010-08-27T22:53:08Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > ETA: The article says possibly out for 2011, so it is not definite. It’ll probably be less than that - I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitching the second half of 2011, though where is a good question (they could very well put him in AA see he’s not seeing Big League competition). Tommy John surgery recovery has taken a huge leap the last decade. > [@Telemark](#): > > They’ve destroyed another great young pitcher by overuse. It’s not overuse - it’s just an unfortunate elbow injury. Overuse usually sees pretty dramatic damage to the shoulder. > [@bup](#): > > He may come back, maybe even as a starter, but he’ll never throw 100 mph again. Neither of those clauses make sense. TJ surgery isn’t a death sentence, have nothing to do with in-game endurance, and often times allow pitchers to throw harder. ---
**Author:** ![Superhal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Superhal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superhal)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/10 "2010-08-28T02:06:53Z")
Let’s hope he comes back. He’s probably the brightest young talent of this generation. I watched Dwight Gooden flame out (although he had 3 good years) and read about Herb Score. It’s really a shame since players like this are so rare. ---
**Author:** ![Cubsfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Cubsfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cubsfan)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/11 "2010-08-28T02:10:39Z")
Wow. What a dagger for DC. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/12 "2010-08-28T02:16:28Z")
It sucks for the fans, but it’s not like the Nats were going to the WS next year with him healthy. As others have mentioned, many come back with _increased_ velocity from TJ surgery. Not that Strasburg should throw any harder…it’s the rotator cuff injury that kills power pitchers. Not many remember that Mariano Rivera had TJ surgery years before he became THE GREAT Mariano Rivera. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/13 "2010-08-28T02:19:29Z")
[A knowledgeable expert on pitching motions](http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/StephenStrasburg.html) has been saying for months that Strasburg was an injury waiting to happen-his throwing arm is in the so-called “inverted W” position halfway through his motion, something Strasburg has in common with another talented yet oft-injured pitching phenom, Mark Prior. Damned shame, but he’ll have to make some alterations to his delivery when he comes back. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/14 "2010-08-28T02:21:31Z")
> [@](#): > > The surgery “probably” means he will miss all of this season and possibly the entire 2011 season. Great sportswriting. If he had the surgery tomorrow, there’d be no “probably” about missing the rest of this season - with the injury described, he’s 100% gone for 2010 no matter what. A return late in 2011 might not be impossible, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/15 "2010-08-28T02:28:40Z")
It’s 18 months for Tommy John surgery, minimum. I wonder if anyone has come back quicker. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/16 "2010-08-28T03:41:55Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > It’s 18 months for Tommy John surgery, minimum. I wonder if anyone has come back quicker. Your numbers are a little bit old - Tommy John came back from Tommy John surgery after 18 months. Eric Gagne: Had his second TJ surgery June 2005, was pitching in the bigs June 2006. Rick Ankiel: Surgery July 2003. Returned to the mound September 2004. Chris Carpenter: Surgery May 2007, returned July 2007. Francisco Liriano: Surgery November 2006, returned beginning of 2008. Josh Johnson: Surgery August 2007, returned July 2008. That’s just a quick glance at recent names. [Here’s a list](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_John_surgery) if you want to do some basic research. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/17 "2010-08-28T04:29:11Z")
Eric Gagne: Pitched all of 2 innings in 2006 and 18 innings in 2007. Rick Ankiel: Pitched 10 innings in 2004. Chris Carpenter: Pitched 6 innings in 2007 and 15 innings in 2008. > [@](#): > > Francisco Liriano: Surgery November 2006, returned beginning of 2008. Hmm, that’s about 18 months, and he only managed 76 innings in 2008. Johnson seems to be the outlier, returning surprisingly early and pitching 87 innings in 2008. So you’re right, my anecdotal evidence citing 18 months is wrong. On average, it takes most pitcher at least 2 years to fully recover from Tommy John surgery. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/18 "2010-08-28T04:57:25Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > Chris Carpenter: Surgery May 2007, returned July 2007. Something’s off about those numbers. I’m pretty sure it took Carp over a year to come back from Tommy John—he had it in mid-2007, and wasn’t really “back” until the 2009 season, though he pitched very well then. There’s a [short article](http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100827&content_id=13997232¬ebook_id=13997502&vkey=notebook_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl&partnerId=rss_stl) at the Cardinals website about Carpenter talking with Strasburg during the Cards’ series in Washington. > [@](#): > > Carpenter said his main point of emphasis to Strasburg is that the operation is not a career death sentence, and that if Strasburg works hard and trusts the people helping him, he’ll come out of it all just fine. > > But he also sympathizes, knowing what a scare it can be to face a year of rehab. FWIW, Jaime Garcia, who pitched for the Cardinals tonight against Washington, also had Tommy John surgery recently, causing him to miss most of the 2009 season, but he’s been pitching well enough this year to be considered for Rookie of the Year. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/19 "2010-08-28T05:05:04Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > Eric Gagne: Pitched all of 2 innings in 2006 and 18 innings in 2007. Are you suggesting that herniated discs have something to do with recovering from Tommy John surgery? > [@](#): > > Rick Ankiel: Pitched 10 innings in 2004. Are you suggesting that losing the mental ability to pitch is related to recovering from Tommy John surgery? > [@](#): > > Chris Carpenter: Pitched 6 innings in 2007 and 15 innings in 2008. Carpenter’s TJ was for his elbow. In 2008 he suffered a shoulder injury. > [@](#): > > Francisco Liriano: > > Hmm, that’s about 18 months, and he only managed 76 innings in 2008. That’s about 15 months, and that’s due to the fact that the baseball season started March 31 and not some time in December. > [@](#): > > Johnson seems to be the outlier, returning surprisingly early and pitching 87 innings in 2008. He’s not an outlier if you have a data set of 5. Again - do a little research. > [@](#): > > So you’re right, my anecdotal evidence citing 18 months is wrong. On average, it takes most pitcher at least 2 years to fully recover from Tommy John surgery. Oh, “fully”! Keep pulling those goalposts back, that’s fine. Your “minimum” was wrong, as was any knowledge of players in recent history coming back from TJ. Now you know, so embrace your new-found knowledge. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2010, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/strasburg-out-for-season-and-all-of-2011/551717/20 "2010-08-28T15:54:07Z")
I’ll change “recovered” to “fully recovered”, as in pitching their normal load, and keep them goalposts right where they are, but thanks a bunch for your “research”.