# Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 24, 2020, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485 "2020-04-24T05:02:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/1 "2020-04-24T05:02:05Z")
[Or: Branch Covidians on their way to Waco](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-2020-battlegrounds-204708): > [@](#): > > “The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.” > > [snip] > > William Galston, a Brookings Institution scholar on governance, said the effects are large enough only to affect outcomes in states that are very narrowly divided. But he concluded the study made sense. > > Trump supporters, especially in Greater Appalachia, tend to be older and heavier, traits correlated with underlying conditions that make Covid-19 more lethal, he said. Smoking levels — another leading indicator of vulnerability — also tend to be higher in red areas. In other words, [the GOP should stop the God-Emperor from suggesting people inject disinfectant](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-inject-disinfectant-bleach-treatment-sunlight-a9481291.html) before he kills off too much of the base. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/2 "2020-04-24T14:54:24Z")
I’m not sure really. A lot of the people who die of coronavirus are probably going to die of some other old age disease pretty soon anyway. In the US we have about 3 million deaths a year, the vast majority occurring among people over the age of 60. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/3 "2020-04-24T15:19:57Z")
Of the ~50,000 U.S. deaths reported so far, more than 30% have been in New York, a reliably blue state. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/4 "2020-04-24T18:45:56Z")
Clicking though, it is a very simplistic study. The article about it brings up one issue. The death totals it assumes are based on a period when predictions were much higher than the trend we were on. For predictive value the study seems to have been overcome by events unless there is a large second wave that strikes swing states. A bigger issue is that it uses national demographics and national fatality numbers to predict the influence. Everything else is ignored. Things like race and its correlation with both the fatality rate and voting patterns are ignored. Very importantly, where people live is ignored. The disease does not affect areas uniformly. Living in the urban cores of our largest cities is strongly associated with voting Democratic. It is also associated with higher chances of being infected thanks to higher population density . Michigan is a great example. The margin was wafer thin last cycle and they have the third highest number of deaths in the nation. Michigan infection and deaths have dominantly fallen on the counties of the Detroit metro area. That area is a Democratic stronghold. The areas where Republicans dominate are relatively lightly affected. The study has an interesting idea but the execution lacks IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/5 "2020-04-24T21:03:57Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m not sure really. A lot of the people who die of coronavirus are probably going to die of some other old age disease pretty soon anyway. > > In the US we have about 3 million deaths a year, the vast majority occurring among people over the age of 60. Corona takes people who were liable to die in the next couple of years and makes them die this year instead. It’s sort of like a fast-forward. Except, at the same time, people generally become more partisan with time. There won’t be a similar fast-forward there. Corona also takes out men more than women. Trump voters are mostly male. In terms of demographics, Trump is either going to screw himself on the economy or on protecting the survival of his voters. He seems to have chosen door 2. ---
**Author:** ![pool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pool/32/4152_2.png) [@pool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pool)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/6 "2020-04-24T22:03:47Z")
Isn’t Coronavirus also killing more blacks and latinos than whites? Quick googling said in New York their deaths were double that of whites. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/7 "2020-04-24T22:38:48Z")
We are at 50,000 deaths atm, you’d need at least a couple zeroes at the end of that before any partisan lean in the death toll starts to make a difference. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/8 "2020-04-24T22:40:20Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’m not sure really. A lot of the people who die of coronavirus are probably going to die of some other old age disease pretty soon anyway. > > In the US we have about 3 million deaths a year, the vast majority occurring among people over the age of 60. You strike me as a smart guy, so I’m very confused. Do you really believe that the majority of the folks who have died of the coronavirus would have died anyway by November 2020 if the virus weren’t in the picture? Because that seems to be the point you’re making. And I want to think I have misunderstood you. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/9 "2020-04-24T22:46:04Z")
I don’t know about the death toll from CV making a difference, but if the flu and CV are bad enough in November to keep seniors from venturing outside, and the Republicans succeed in suppressing vote by mail, they may outsmart themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/10 "2020-04-24T23:13:19Z")
> [@pool](#): > > Isn’t Coronavirus also killing more blacks and latinos than whites? Quick googling said in New York their deaths were double that of whites. They’re more affected. But they’re also a smaller slice of the pie. 10% of 30m = 3m 5% of 200m = 10m ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/11 "2020-04-24T23:21:32Z")
[Twenty percent of American COVID-19 deaths have occurred in black Americans](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/) While black people are suffering disproportionately, plenty of white folks are dying too. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/12 "2020-04-24T23:36:01Z")
[https://www.similarweb.com/website/politico.com#overview](https://www.similarweb.com/website/politico.com#overview) [https://www.similarweb.com/website/thehill.com#overview](https://www.similarweb.com/website/thehill.com#overview) [https://www.similarweb.com/website/foxnews.com#overview](https://www.similarweb.com/website/foxnews.com#overview) One notes that dead folk don’t browse the web. I wouldn’t call that conclusive, but April’s numbers will be interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2020, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/13 "2020-04-24T23:43:32Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > You strike me as a smart guy, so I’m very confused. > > Do you really believe that the majority of the folks who have died of the coronavirus would have died anyway by November 2020 if the virus weren’t in the picture? > > Because that seems to be the point you’re making. And I want to think I have misunderstood you. I can be pretty stupid sometimes so don’t get your hopes up. Humility and admitting you can be wrong is a good thing. In Italy I believe the median age of death was 80 for the virus. Those people may not have died within six months thats true, but they won’t be around much longer. However yes for the purposes of this thread we’re talking about november 2020 and you’re right the people who died probably wouldn’t have died in the next 6 months. Having said that as was said, a sizable chunk of the deaths so far are in NJ and NY, reliable blue states. If the virus explodes in Florida, then it may flip the state. Florida is full of elderly Trump supporters and it is pretty evenly split in presidential elections. But the virus also seems to take off more in urban areas, which are democratic. And it kills more non-whites than whites. Even though it also kills more men than women. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/14 "2020-04-25T00:22:00Z")
My wag is that survivors are more likely to blame Trump for the deaths than China. They will overwhelmingly vote out trump, and their numbers greater than the elderly maga voters that actually die from covid. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/15 "2020-04-25T00:36:33Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > My wag is that survivors are more likely to blame Trump for the deaths than China. Biden doesn’t have to air any political ads, really. The taskforce debriefings are more effective than any political ad at showing the average voter that Trump is dangerously incompetent. Trump has no one but himself to blame for this. All he had to do is let Pence be the face of the US coronavirus response and thus be the fall-guy for its mishaps and failures. But Trump’s ego wouldn’t let him take a backseat. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/16 "2020-04-25T01:17:34Z")
Trump’s popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office. I am of the belief that if Trump were to strip naked, scream “death to America” in Arabic, and stab Pence to death on national tv, his popularity level would not budge one inch. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/17 "2020-04-25T04:13:42Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Trump’s popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office. > > I am of the belief that if Trump were to strip naked, scream “death to America” in Arabic, and stab Pence to death on national tv, his popularity level would not budge one inch. And in order to get the rest of the vote necessary to win the Electoral College vote, I’m certain that Trump will find a way (or several ways) to undermine the election. He knows that even if he does something illegal, he’ll be in office before anything can be done about it, and by then no one will indict him because he’ll be president, and Bill Barr will cover his ass. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/18 "2020-04-25T04:31:42Z")
It’s really quite surreal. The President of the United States suggested yesterday in a press conference that people could inject bleach to cure themselves of an infection. But we have this thread based on the presumption that the only way his supporters will not vote for him again in November is if they are dead. ---
**Author:** ![Ranger\_Jeff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranger_jeff/32/2065_2.png) [@Ranger\_Jeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranger_Jeff)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/19 "2020-04-25T05:18:35Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > [Twenty percent of American COVID-19 deaths have occurred in black Americans](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/) > > While black people are suffering disproportionately, plenty of white folks are dying too. So, 80% of the COVID-19 deaths are of white americans. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/20 "2020-04-25T05:22:22Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > It’s really quite surreal. The President of the United States suggested yesterday in a press conference that people could inject bleach to cure themselves of an infection. But we have this thread based on the presumption that the only way his supporters will not vote for him again in November is if they are dead. If we’re not watchful, some of those dead Chump supporters may be voting for him anyway. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485.md?page=2)