# Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 24, 2020, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485 "2020-04-24T05:02:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/21 "2020-04-25T05:32:43Z")
> [@Ranger Jeff](#): > > So, 80% of the COVID-19 deaths are of white americans. Actually, no. 50%. You should look at the link, it’s very informative. One thing it seems to be saying is that the virus in America is concentrated more in non-white areas, but that within those areas black and white people are dying a little more often than they proportionately ‘should’, hispanic people somewhat less and asian people quite a lot less. I suppose that a lot of this is down to rural/urban demographic differences ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/22 "2020-04-25T05:47:34Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > Actually, no. 50%. > > You should look at the link, it’s very informative. > > One thing it seems to be saying is that the virus in America is concentrated more in non-white areas, but that within those areas black and white people are dying a little more often than they proportionately ‘should’, hispanic people somewhat less and asian people quite a lot less. > > I suppose that a lot of this is down to rural/urban demographic differences Its also due to the fact that white people are more likely to have jobs that allow them to work at home. In NY state, around 20% of backs and latinos have been infected vs ~10% of whites and asians. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/23 "2020-04-25T07:09:43Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Trump’s popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office. If you look closely at that graph though, he was actually significantly less popular for nearly all of 2017 than he ever consistently has been since, which I have always found very curious. I would say if anything, he has gotten a lot worse since 2017, but I guess people got more used to him or something? The whole “defining deviance down” idea? I dunno, it’s strange. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/24 "2020-04-25T10:27:02Z")
Remember the old CT? Trimp was buddies with the Clintons and a registered Dem for most of his years. The CT holds that he ran in 2016 to destroy the GOP by leading them to Hell. Then he unexpectedly and undesirably (on his part) won. Now he’s been handed a golden opportunity to kill-off the GOP base. What a sly devil! President Biden should pardon him, award a Presidential Medal Of Opportunism, and exile him to Mar-a-Lago (with tight security). ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/25 "2020-04-25T10:43:21Z")
IIRC what I heard on NPR recently, black people (can’t remember if Latinos were included) were more likely to die _if_ they were infected. The speculation was that they waited longer to seek palliative care, and pushed themselves to keep working longer, even when they were already ill, instead of resting. They were also less likely to be able to eat well and get lots of fluids when they were ill. So while, yes, more African Americans are becoming ill; in addition, a higher percentage of those ill will die. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/26 "2020-04-25T10:43:47Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > [Twenty percent of American COVID-19 deaths have occurred in black Americans](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/) > > While black people are suffering disproportionately, plenty of white folks are dying too. Yeah, while it’s important to know that black people are disproportionately affected too many white people are taking that to mean it’s not their problem so they don’t have to worry about it. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/27 "2020-04-25T10:48:36Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > But the virus also seems to take off more in urban areas, which are democratic. And it kills more non-whites than whites. Even though it also kills more men than women. No, in _raw numbers_ more whites are killed by this virus in the US than minorities because white people are a higher percentage of the population. While a higher proportion of black/brown/other minorities are getting severe disease and dying, a smaller percentage of white people dying is still a crap-ton of dead white people. Right now it’s hitting urban areas hard, because dense populations are a feeding frenzy for epidemic diseases. But if rural Americans keep insisting on flaunting preventive measures, going to demonstrations inside of cities, having Sunday services as normal jammed into churches and shaking hands and trading hugs, it’s going to explode in rural areas. And they’ll find out the hard way that being white and rural and a loyal Trump follower doesn’t protect you if you insist on leaving yourself exposed because you foolishly think it’s someone else’s problem. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/28 "2020-04-25T11:42:01Z")
> [@Ulfreida](#): > > Trump’s popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office. And that is really bad for him in a crisis when governments tend to get a bump. Even states that refused to lock down got upticks in support. Trump did get a bump early on, but it’s completely evaporated. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/29 "2020-04-25T17:42:56Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > Biden doesn’t have to air any political ads, really. The taskforce debriefings are more effective than any political ad at showing the average voter that Trump is dangerously incompetent. > > Trump has no one but himself to blame for this. All he had to do is let Pence be the face of the US coronavirus response and thus be the fall-guy for its mishaps and failures. But Trump’s ego wouldn’t let him take a backseat. A poster at another board compared the current situation to the McCarthy hearings. The public started out in support of the commie hunt only to turn on him once McCarthy’s loathsomeness was revealed day by day. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/30 "2020-04-25T18:45:08Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > A poster at another board compared the current situation to the McCarthy hearings. The public started out in support of the commie hunt only to turn on him once McCarthy’s loathsomeness was revealed day by day. Inlaws were recently pretty well-off and even now aren’t poor but they’ve already lost millions in investments even pre-COVID and they know Trimp the Chimp wants them dead. Yet they still support him. Trimp’s loathsomeness hasn’t extended far enough. Suckers gonna suck. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/31 "2020-04-25T20:33:31Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > A poster at another board compared the current situation to the McCarthy hearings. The public started out in support of the commie hunt only to turn on him once McCarthy’s loathsomeness was revealed day by day. Problem is, to his base Chump’s loathsomeness is a feature, not a bug. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/32 "2020-04-25T21:12:30Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Problem is, to his base Chump’s loathsomeness is a feature, not a bug. Nailed it in one. Only thing is to register and turn out the opposition vote in November. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2020, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/33 "2020-04-25T23:21:33Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > We are at 50,000 deaths atm, you’d need at least a couple zeroes at the end of that before any partisan lean in the death toll starts to make a difference. No, I don’t think the actual number who will have died will make a crucial difference but 23K made the difference in Wisconsin, 11K made the difference in Michigan … and we can all remember an election when 537 votes in Florida made the difference. Recent elections have sometimes come down to a relatively few votes in key places. But if there is an election impact it will be most that a crisis is a chance for a president to shine, winning over those who are winnable with demonstrated leadership. People want to rally together. He continues to show he’s not the president to do that. In terms of impacting his base, well that depends on how this progresses and the timing of it. My fear for the real world is that the rural America will be hit hard but in a very lagging fashion, maybe as the Fall hits, possibly synchronized with influenza starting up. That’s bad for people dying. And rural voters then may realize that failed leadership is what is killing them as much as the germ is. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2020, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/34 "2020-04-26T00:43:43Z")
What won’t tip the scales, IMHO, is the actual number of people who won’t cast ballots because they’re dead due to the coronavirus. What’s more likely to have an impact is the effect of their deaths, and Trump’s failure to do anything meaningful to try to prevent them, on their family and friends. Older voters in particular will have lost friends (if not spouses or siblings) to the coronavirus, they will have felt personally threatened by this epidemic, and they will remember the way so many conservatives were ready to throw them [del]under the bus[/del] six feet under, just to get the economy going again. That’s going to be a real problem for Trump in states like FL and AZ where people retire to, and in the Midwestern states that have gradually been trending red, in part because of an aging electorate in those states. ---
**Author:** ![Warm\_blood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/df705f/32.png) [@Warm\_blood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Warm_blood)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2020, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/35 "2020-04-26T01:32:12Z")
I think those of you who are underestimating the possibility of dead voters directly impacting Trump’s electability don’t realize most of the red states who have prematurely loosened social restrictions or had none to begin with still haven’t seen the peak of the pandemic. New York is just getting over its hump, meanwhile there will be several more New Yorks elsewhere, especially in the swing states Trump relied on to win the election. A victory won by razor thin margins in most cases, mind you. And like RTFirefly said, the survivors and families of those who died from COVID-19 won’t forget which party let them down in their time need. A few die-hard sycophants will still support Trump and blame the Democrats, but for the rest of them seeing their president’s abysmal response to a pandemic that has killed them, maimed them, and ruined their economic prospects will be the wake-up call they urgently needed to finally turn their backs on Trump and the GOP. I honestly believe the everlasting legacy of COVID-19 is the death of the Republican Party for at least a generation. This is a party that will have to be rebuilt from the ground up. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2020, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/36 "2020-04-26T03:35:05Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > What’s more likely to have an impact is the effect of their deaths, and Trump’s failure to do anything meaningful to try to prevent them, on their family and friends. Older voters in particular will have lost friends (if not spouses or siblings) to the coronavirus, they will have felt personally threatened by this epidemic, and they will remember the way so many conservatives were ready to throw them [del]under the bus[/del] six feet under, just to get the economy going again. I’ve seen this view mentioned by someone in another thread. I don’t see it. Trump’s popularity is in similar territory as the belief in God. If things are good, then it’s thanks to God. If things are bad, fortunately, God was there to guide us through it and it would have been worse without him. Likewise for Trump. The expectation of some sort of rational approach to the matter, when looking at a steady 40% approval rating through “The British attacked our airports during the Revolutionary War”, “It’s not an election finance crime, because I have him on permanent retainer to handle all my sexual assault payoffs”, and “Is it reasonable to inject Draino to cure Coronavirus?”, seems overly optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2020, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/37 "2020-04-26T03:57:16Z")
The GOP holding onto 40 percent support definitely does not leave them “destroyed”, especially with gerrymandering and other structural advantages, but it doesn’t leave them in a terribly strong position either–especially when they have burned their bridges with the other 60%. > [@Broomstick](#): > > But if rural Americans keep insisting on flaunting preventive measures, going to demonstrations inside of cities, having Sunday services as normal jammed into churches and shaking hands and trading hugs, it’s going to explode in rural areas. Pretty sure I agree with you, but I have got to think you mean “flouting” rather than “flaunting”. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > What won’t tip the scales, IMHO, is the actual number of people who won’t cast ballots because they’re dead due to the coronavirus. > > What’s more likely to have an impact is the effect of their deaths, and Trump’s failure to do anything meaningful to try to prevent them, on their family and friends. Older voters in particular will have lost friends (if not spouses or siblings) to the coronavirus, they will have felt personally threatened by this epidemic, and they will remember the way so many conservatives were ready to throw them [del]under the bus[/del] six feet under, just to get the economy going again. > > That’s going to be a real problem for Trump in states like FL and AZ where people retire to, and in the Midwestern states that have gradually been trending red, in part because of an aging electorate in those states. Yes, there was a polling expert on PBS’s _Washington Week_ yesterday who said that Trump has lost support specifically among older voters over the past two weeks. And that of course is before any effect of his disinfectant/UV light insanity on Thursday. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2020, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/38 "2020-04-26T05:02:35Z")
The impact of Trump voters dying is overstated. Even if hundreds of thousands of Trumpers died, all it takes is for a mere increase of 1% in voter turnout among Trump’s base (compared to 2016) to complete negate the effect of those deaths. Remember, Trump got 63 million votes four years ago. Even if we assume that Covid-19 kills off 63 Trump voters out of every hundred victims that it kills (which is a highly doubtful percentage,) it would take a whopping 1 million American coronavirus deaths before November to reduce Trump’s vote performance by just one percent. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2020, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/39 "2020-04-26T05:51:34Z")
> [@](#): > > rural voters then may realize that **failed leadership** is killing them > [@](#): > > the survivors and families of those who died from COVID-19 won’t forget which **party** let them down in their time need. I don’t think it works that way. People are dying , and afraid of dying, because of germs that came from China. They won’t blame the president for Chinese germs. Sure, you can point out that some countries did better than us and had fewer deaths because of political leadership. But that requires rational thought. Elections are not won by rational thought. (see: Brexit) > [@](#): > > Trump’s popularity is in similar territory as the belief in God. If things are good, then it’s thanks to God. If things are bad, fortunately, God was there to guide us through it and it would have been worse without him. This is a much more accurate observation of human behavior than the two quotes above. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2020, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485/40 "2020-04-26T08:02:42Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The impact of Trump voters dying is overstated. Even if hundreds of thousands of Trumpers died, all it takes is for a mere increase of 1% in voter turnout among Trump’s base (compared to 2016) to complete negate the effect of those deaths. > > Remember, Trump got 63 million votes four years ago. Even if we assume that Covid-19 kills off 63 Trump voters out of every hundred victims that it kills (which is a highly doubtful percentage,) it would take a whopping 1 million American coronavirus deaths before November to reduce Trump’s vote performance by just one percent. Winning isn’t based on gross quantities. Hillary could have gotten 15m more votes and still lost, if all 15m were in California. Swing states, swing districts, people who actually vote; everything else is immaterial. A few people one direction or another can make a large difference, sometimes. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/study-elderly-trump-voters-dying-of-coronavirus-could-cost-him-in-november/852485.md?page=3)