# Stupid lottery **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [February 18, 2004, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783 "2004-02-18T13:41:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DadWagonDriver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/edb3f5/32.png) [@DadWagonDriver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DadWagonDriver)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/21 "2004-02-19T06:44:53Z")
> [@Cerowyn](#): > > BTW, Canadian lottery prizes are awarded in a single payment, tax free. A $10 million prize is a $10 million cheque. Just in case those of you who do play lotteries want to contribute in Canada… Yes, but when I come home to Michigan, won’t my governments want their share of my $7,557,320? Or does this remain tax free, since I won it in Canada? ---
**Author:** ![Morrigoon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/858c86/32.png) [@Morrigoon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morrigoon)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/22 "2004-02-19T07:18:34Z")
> [@wmulax93](#): > > Yes, but when I come home to Michigan, won’t my governments want their share of my $7,557,320? Or does this remain tax free, since I won it in Canada? Depends on whether you bring it into the US, or if you are smart enough to keep it in a Canadian (or Swiss!) bank account. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 11:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/23 "2004-02-19T11:04:28Z")
If you play to win, you need to look more carefully at the odds. If you have an Expectation of winning, you’re a mathematician. If you play for fun, you’re typically only betting the minimum amount and expecting to lose it but the pleasure granted by that ticket is worth the cost. You know, you buy a ticket one day and go to work thinking, “Yes, tomorrow I’ll be out of here!” ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/24 "2004-02-19T11:59:40Z")
Plus, I don’t know why people will drop a couple hundred bucks (I’ve seen them do it and rung it up for them) playing the lottery (note: I’m not talking about betting pools, which is a much better idea than playing alone in my opinion) or scratchers when they could just as easily drive to one of the casinos within 30 miles of Albuquerque and play blackjack or something with a much better chance of walking away having broken even or coming out ahead. Of course, the really smart thing would be to sock away the five or ten bucks or whatever every week into a savings account and then move it into a better investment the next year once you’re looking at 500 bucks or more. Or spend it for something big for Christmas or something, like paying for that brand-new big screen TV. ---
**Author:** ![thinksnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thinksnow/32/2849_2.png) [@thinksnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thinksnow)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/25 "2004-02-19T13:47:16Z")
Mega Millions: 1 in 135,145,920 (OVERALL ODDS OF WINNING **ANY** PRIZE: 1 in 43) Max payout, unlimited; currently at $215MM Expected (jackpot only) return on $1 “invested” = ~$1.60 The Ohio Super Lotto: 1 in 13,983,816 (Overall odds of winning **any** prize are 1 in 451) Max payout, unlimited, starts/resets at $4MM; currently at $7MM Expected (jackpot only) return on $1 “invested” = ~$0.50 Buckeye5: 1 in 435,897 (Overall Odds of Winning **Any** Prize: 1 in 8) Max payout, $100,000 Expected (jackpot only) return on $1 “invested” = ~$0.23 Now, the catch is that the games all have various levels of winning, which is which your expectation of _winning_ is actually higher w/ Buckeye5, but the expected _payout_ is lower. ---
**Author:** ![HDS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/bb73d2/32.png) [@HDS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HDS)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/26 "2004-02-19T13:51:03Z")
I liked how Orwell described the lottery in 1984. As previous dopers have said, save those dollars (or whatever money you use) and save them. My extra money goes to the Boy and Mama Foundation, which sponsors inexpensive fun things. Always a payoff 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Qazzz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/aeb1de/32.png) [@Qazzz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qazzz)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/27 "2004-02-19T13:55:15Z")
Blagh. It was the first ticket I’ve ever bought. Well, first five tickets I ever bought. And $177 million! I think I got one number correct out of all 30 numbers. What are the odds of THAT? I guess I’ll just have to EARN money. _sigh sigh sigh_ ---
**Author:** ![beajerry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@beajerry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beajerry)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/28 "2004-02-19T17:25:22Z")
Now, now, you lottery bashers. It’s all about risk. If you can afford to risk a dollar once a week to play the lottery with a chance to win millions (very bad odds, certainly), then one should by all means go for it. Because it is a chance, nonetheless. And someone does win. Now, if you’re paying more than five bucks a week on tickets and can’t really afford it, then you are taking an unreasonable risk. ---
**Author:** ![laserkitty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@laserkitty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/laserkitty)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/29 "2004-02-20T00:55:27Z")
> [@beajerry](#): > > Now, if you’re paying more than five bucks a week on tickets and can’t really afford it, then you are taking an unreasonable risk. No cite, but I’ve heard time and time again that the people who spend the most on the lottery(ies) are those who can least afford it. Again, I don’t have a cite handy, but the numbers misting through the fog in my brain were shockingly high- the the tune of averages of $50/year from “middle class” but $300+/year from “lower class.” ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/30 "2004-02-20T01:01:34Z")
> [@Qazzz](#): > > Blagh. > > It was the first ticket I’ve ever bought. Well, first five tickets I ever bought. And $177 million! > > I think I got one number correct out of all 30 numbers. What are the odds of THAT? > > I guess I’ll just have to EARN money. _sigh sigh sigh_ I’m pretty sure that each of the tickets you buy can be classified as an independent event. So the odds of you matching a single number are around 12% for each ticket. (6 out of 49?) I’ve forgotten most of my statistics but I don’t think that means you have a 56% chance of getting a single number. Just 5 independent events 12% each. If some math wiz doesn’t come in and calculate your odds then I’ve got a book of Cartoon Statistics that probably has it in there. ---
**Author:** ![jackelope](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@jackelope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackelope)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/31 "2004-02-20T01:04:17Z")
> [@Qazzz](#): > > I think I got one number correct out of all 30 numbers. What are the odds of THAT? There are 49 numbers, right? And you’ve got 30 randomly (I assume) distributed digits, only one of which happened to fall within a specified subset of six of those numbers. OK, someone please correct me if I’m wrong on this: (43/49)[sup]29[/sup] = 2.264%, or about 1 in 44. Wow, them’s some long odds. It’s still about 317,000 times more likely than winning, though. Actually, come to think of it, my numbers are slightly off since you can’t choose the same number more than once per group of five, but I think they’re close enough. Unless they’re wrong. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/32 "2004-02-20T02:09:04Z")
> [@jackelope](#): > > There are 49 numbers, right? And you’ve got 30 randomly (I assume) distributed digits, only one of which happened to fall within a specified subset of six of those numbers. > > OK, someone please correct me if I’m wrong on this: > > (43/49)[sup]29[/sup] = 2.264%, or about 1 in 44. > > Wow, them’s some long odds. It’s still about 317,000 times more likely than winning, though. > > Actually, come to think of it, my numbers are slightly off since you can’t choose the same number more than once per group of five, but I think they’re close enough. Unless they’re wrong. Nah, it’s not that simple (and not as simple as I said earlier, either). With powerball-type lotteries you get five number (from 1-52 in this case), and then a sixth number, which can be duplicative of the first five (again from 1-52 for MegaMillions). Of course in the 30 numbers that **Qazzz** picked there can be and probably were duplicate numbers. ---
**Author:** ![jackelope](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@jackelope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackelope)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/33 "2004-02-20T04:11:08Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Nah, it’s not that simple (and not as simple as I said earlier, either). With powerball-type lotteries you get five number (from 1-52 in this case), and then a sixth number, which can be duplicative of the first five (again from 1-52 for MegaMillions). Of course in the 30 numbers that **Qazzz** picked there can be and probably were duplicate numbers. Hmm. OK, the kind of lottery I’m thinking of isn’t the Powerball; it’s the Pick 6 type, in which you pick six numbers from 1 to 49. So for each card, the odds of not hitting any of the six numbers are: (43/49)x(42/48)x(41/47)x(40/46)x(39/45)x(38/44) I think that’s correct. That gives us 0.436 (I’m rounding off). So with five cards, the odds are 0.436[sup]5[/sup], or 1.575%. That’s about 1 in 63.5, a bit worse than I’d originally come up with. And still 220,000 times more likely than winning the lottery. (I really hope my math is right this time. But it’s probably not.) ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/34 "2004-02-20T05:14:20Z")
Ok, I just checked the Mega Millions website. The odds of winning _anything_ are 1:43. The odds of winning it all are 1 in 135,145,920\*. The current cash payout is estimated at $131,360,952. So you’re still almost five million under water if you buy every single combination, and that’s _before_ taxes. So it needs to go up quite a bit before you could wheel the whole thing. And if someone else (or more than one) got lucky and won you’d be in really trouble. \*Which tells me one thing. Somewhere in there **Jackelope** ’s math is off. Not that I could have done any better. ---
**Author:** ![jackelope](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a6a055/32.png) [@jackelope](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackelope)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2004, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/35 "2004-02-21T00:47:44Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Ok, I just checked the Mega Millions website. The odds of winning _anything_ are 1:43. The odds of winning it all are 1 in 135,145,920\*. \ > > \*Which tells me one thing. Somewhere in there **Jackelope** ’s math is off. Not that I could have done any better. I got my “1 in 13,983,816” figure from **Cerowyn** ’s [Ontario Lotto link](http://www.lottery.ca/nontariolot/n649/649odds.htm) above. It’s also the number quoted by **thinksnow** as the odds of winning the Ohio Super Lotto. And this English major, having exhausted his arithmetical prowess, is checking out of the math discussion before he starts embarrassing himself… ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2004, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/36 "2004-02-21T08:19:35Z")
Someone won the Mega Millions last night. Maybe it was **Qazzz** … wouldn’t he feel silly winning $230,000,000 after this pit thread? ---
**Author:** ![Tusculan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecd19e/32.png) [@Tusculan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tusculan)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2004, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/37 "2004-02-21T08:40:08Z")
If I were to win the lottery after complaining about never winning, the last thing I would feel is silly. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2004, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783/38 "2004-02-22T17:20:01Z")
I cannot vouch for the figures, but this Virginia lottery ticket was the subject of some back-of-the-envelope calculations at work today. It works out to a third of a billion dollars before taxes. Ten million a year for twenty years. That is something like $80,000 a month. About $2,500 a day. Of course a million isn’t what it used to be. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stupid-lottery/229783.md?page=1)