# Super Tuesday Primary Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 1, 2020, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741 "2020-03-01T05:33:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/1 "2020-03-01T05:33:42Z")
March 3rd Alabama American Samoa Arkansas California Colorado Maine Massachusetts Minnesota North Carolina Oklahoma Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia I am not voting since my only choices were Donald Trump and 6 people I’ve never heard of. I’m trying to get people to vote for Klobuchar but after SC I don’t think that’s going very far. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/2 "2020-03-01T07:23:03Z")
Let’s order this list by number of delegates: ```auto 415 California primary 228 Texas primary 110 North Carolina primary 99 Virginia primary 91 Massachusetts primary 75 Minnesota primary 67 Colorado primary 64 Tennessee primary 52 Alabama primary 37 Oklahoma primary 31 Arkansas primary 29 Utah primary 24 Maine primary 16 Vermont primary 6 American Samoa caucuses ``` ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/3 "2020-03-01T10:29:10Z")
I see a lot of Bernie stans on Twitter reassuring themselves that the black vote in Super Tuesday states looks stronger in polls for their man than the blowout in South Carolina. But Nate Silver says black voters tend to decide late and shift to the establishment candidate at the end. If this happens on Tuesday, I will be very happy—because I think it’s a terrible mistake to nominate Bernie, and I will feel like African Americans saved us from that fate. But that makes me wonder if people on the Bernie side are going to start feeling racial resentment, since it was also black voters that denied him the nomination in 2016 (I’m pretty sure he actually won more votes than Hillary among whites, although it was close). Hopefully they are progressive enough not to go down that road, but it is human nature if you have your hopes and dreams loaded up on a certain outcome and an identifiable group of people repeatedly thwarts you. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/4 "2020-03-01T12:51:27Z")
This is the big one - go Bernie! We’ll know the true state of the race after Tues. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/5 "2020-03-01T14:05:51Z")
Bernie will have a good night on Tuesday. I don’t see any scenario in which he doesn’t win more contests and delegates, and he will likely win Texas and California. But Biden probably holds the South and Southeast going forward. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/6 "2020-03-01T16:07:38Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > March 3rd > Alabama > American Samoa > Arkansas > California > Colorado > Maine > Massachusetts > Minnesota > North Carolina > Oklahoma > Tennessee > Texas > Utah > Vermont > Virginia > > I am not voting since my only choices were Donald Trump and 6 people I’ve never heard of. I’m trying to get people to vote for Klobuchar but after SC I don’t think that’s going very far. So Biden and Sanders are the new kids on the block to you? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/7 "2020-03-01T16:21:56Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > So Biden and Sanders are the new kids on the block to you? :dubious: He probably is a registered Republican and Colorado (his location says near Denver) has closed primaries. So he probably means the other Republican candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/8 "2020-03-01T16:41:54Z")
I was going to vote Yang then Steyer. I might end up with none of the above which is an option here. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/9 "2020-03-01T17:06:18Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > He probably is a registered Republican and Colorado (his location says near Denver) has closed primaries. So he probably means the other Republican candidates. **Saint Cad** is in Colorado and a Republican. Here are his choices: Robert Ardini Zoltan Istvan Matthew John Matern Donald Trump Bill Weld Joe Walsh On top of that Joe Walsh dropped out on February 7th. I guess Bill Weld is not a household name, but mail in ballots went out on February 10th which seems like more than enough time to Google those nine characters if not all six names. Also… Zoltan Istvan? I think he was a minor bad guy on the old G.I. Joe cartoon. You don’t need to know anything else about him to know that he deserves your vote. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/10 "2020-03-01T17:19:50Z")
Super Tuesday: _(Posted by a Sanders fan on Facebook)_ Alabama: No polling (52) American Samoa (caucus): No polling (6) Arkansas: One poll, Bloomberg +1 (2/6) (31) California: Sanders +18 (possible no other candidate is viable) (415) Colorado: Sanders +13 (67) Maine: One Poll, Sanders +9 (2/13) (24) Massachusetts: Sanders +4 (91) Minnesota: Klobuchar +6 (75) North Carolina: Biden +3 (110) Oklahoma: Biden +1 (37) Tennessee: No polling (64) Texas: Sanders +9 (228) Vermont: Sanders +38 (possible no other candidate is viable) (16) Virginia: Sanders +6 (99) Utah: Sanders +13 (29) Wrap-up: Sanders leading in 8 states Biden leading in 2 states Bloomberg leading in 1 state (Arkansas, by one percent) Klobuchar leading in 1 state (MN, her home) No Polling: Three states Buttigeig: Not leading any states Warren: Not leading any states Gabbard: Not leading any states Gabbard has won zero delegates so far Warren: three straight events with zero delegates Buttigeig: two straight events with zero delegates ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/11 "2020-03-01T17:24:05Z")
Nitpick: the Democrats Abroad have their primary on Super Tuesday as well. I think it’s a two man race now. Biden gets a bump out of SC, clears the 15% in CA and comes close if not wins TX. Kloubuchar, Warren, and Buttigieg drop out Wednesday. Maybe even Bloomberg if he becomes convinced that Biden will beat Bernie. The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/12 "2020-03-01T17:27:43Z")
If Sanders wins all the delegates in states he leads in the polls (impossible) and zero delegates in other states (also impossible), he would win 969 delegates of the 1990 needed for a nomination on the first ballot. He’d be a bit more than halfway there counting the delegates he has already won. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/13 "2020-03-01T17:44:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > He probably is a registered Republican and Colorado (his location says near Denver) has closed primaries. So he probably means the other Republican candidates. Ah. Okay. That makes more sense. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/14 "2020-03-01T17:47:13Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I see a lot of Bernie stans on Twitter reassuring themselves that the black vote in Super Tuesday states looks stronger in polls for their man than the blowout in South Carolina. But Nate Silver says black voters tend to decide late and shift to the establishment candidate at the end. If this happens on Tuesday, I will be very happy—because I think it’s a terrible mistake to nominate Bernie, and I will feel like African Americans saved us from that fate. But that makes me wonder if people on the Bernie side are going to start feeling racial resentment, since it was also black voters that denied him the nomination in 2016 (I’m pretty sure he actually won more votes than Hillary among whites, although it was close). > > Hopefully they are progressive enough not to go down that road, but it is human nature if you have your hopes and dreams loaded up on a certain outcome and an identifiable group of people repeatedly thwarts you. There is kind of a racial division among minorities right now though, on top of the age division. Latinos seem to be going to Bernie while blacks are going towards Biden. Sanders is making inroads with blacks, but I think Biden is still the leader. So there is the age gap and ideological gap, but also a racial gap between minorities. Not sure if that will cause problems. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/15 "2020-03-01T17:49:30Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Nitpick: the Democrats Abroad have their primary on Super Tuesday as well. > > I think it’s a two man race now. Biden gets a bump out of SC, clears the 15% in CA and comes close if not wins TX. Kloubuchar, Warren, and Buttigieg drop out Wednesday. Maybe even Bloomberg if he becomes convinced that Biden will beat Bernie. > > The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more. Sanders has a 30% ceiling in a 6 person race, but as 2016 shows his ceiling is higher in a 2 person race. Assuming several candidates drop out later this week, some will go to Bernie. I could see Klob, Buttigieg and Warren dropping out later this week. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/16 "2020-03-01T17:52:11Z")
Someone posted all the 2-candidate preferences by polling from last week or so - Bernie beat every other Democrat, with wide margins against all but 2, IIRC - Warren and Biden (Warren was closest but still lost to Bernie). ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/17 "2020-03-01T18:11:10Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more. I would think that Bernie has 100% of the Democrats who support him. Certainly no more. 🙂 It looks like that 15% threshold is going to decide this race. Biden and Bernie probably make it in almost every state (certainly Bernie) but if another candidate cannot consistently win at least 15%, there is no brokered convention as Biden and Bernie will slug it out and the winner will by definition have a majority of delegates. I think the outcome of this race depends on Bloomberg. Not that he will win, but whether he causes a brokered convention by denying Sanders a majority. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/18 "2020-03-01T18:14:55Z")
Also, and I hate to be that guy, but this polling seems to be extremely volatile such that they should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt. Look at SC…Biden was up big for a long time, and as little as a week ago, Bernie was up by 7 points and Biden ends up winning by 30. I think Bernie certainly takes a hit after SC. Maybe he still wins, but only by 5 instead of 20. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/19 "2020-03-01T19:58:55Z")
What **UltraVires** said. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/20 "2020-03-01T20:14:13Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Look at SC…Biden was up big for a long time, and as little as a week ago, Bernie was up by 7 points and Biden ends up winning by 30. Where are you getting your information? I don’t think this happened. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741.md?page=2)