# Super Tuesday Primary Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 1, 2020, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741 "2020-03-01T05:33:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/61 "2020-03-03T03:03:09Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > I will have a fucking house party to watch a brokered convention. Not because I think that will help Trump, but for the historic nature of it. Same here. I want multiple ballots that span several weeks, and cigar-smoke-filled rooms. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/62 "2020-03-03T03:19:15Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Same here. I want multiple ballots that span several weeks, and cigar-smoke-filled rooms. I want anti-smoking laws and ordinances suspended for the DNC this summer. šŸ™‚ ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/63 "2020-03-03T04:08:16Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > I want anti-smoking laws and ordinances suspended for the DNC this summer. šŸ™‚ And letā€™s make it a drunken brawl, as well! [ā€œWisconsin Republicans hopeful about bill to set later bar time during Democratic conventionā€](https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-republicans-hopeful-about-bill-to-set-later-bar-time/article_aa2ce372-083c-55b7-8dd5-1f97e5d171e3.html) ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/64 "2020-03-03T17:49:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Same here. I want multiple ballots that span several weeks, and cigar-smoke-filled rooms. Rightā€¦ā€œCigarā€ smoke filled rooms šŸ™‚ ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/65 "2020-03-03T20:16:36Z")
I canā€™t wait to hear the conspiracies if Biden does well and California takes forever to count. We already know now that California will take forever to count. Iā€™m sure if Biden does well, the Bernie people will be making accusations that the DNC is fixing things in California. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/66 "2020-03-03T20:28:01Z")
Seems to me that every election we hear talk of a brokered convention. I doubt it will happen. Personally, I think talk Bernieā€™s lock on the nomination was entirely premature, I think Biden will have a majority of delegates by June. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/67 "2020-03-03T20:40:06Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > I canā€™t wait to hear the conspiracies if Biden does well and California takes forever to count. > > We already know now that California will take forever to count. Iā€™m sure if Biden does well, the Bernie people will be making accusations that the DNC is fixing things in California. Iā€™m in a red California county and districts. Too bad the DNC canā€™t fix things here. That lengthy vote count occurs county by county, all 58 of-em. The smaller, poorer red counties might be slower than the bigger, richer blue counties in tallying mail-in ballots. If red-county vote-counters with Tramp leanings pull any tricks, Bernie will likely benefit. Iā€™m not sure elections are the best way to pick leaders. Paintball shoot-outs between candidates might work better. šŸ˜› ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/68 "2020-03-03T21:51:24Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Rightā€¦ā€œCigarā€ smoke filled rooms šŸ™‚ Yup, no measly cigarettes. Not when the stakes are this high. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/69 "2020-03-03T22:13:16Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Seems to me that every election we hear talk of a brokered convention. I doubt it will happen. Personally, I think talk Bernieā€™s lock on the nomination was entirely premature, I think Biden will have a majority of delegates by June. Itā€™s sure starting to look that way. There are signs that Bloomberg just wants to see how many votes he can get today after spending all that money and then he is going to drop out and support Biden. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/70 "2020-03-03T22:25:48Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Yup, no measly cigarettes. Not when the stakes are this high. Rightā€¦ā€œtobaccoā€ smoke filled rooms. šŸ™‚ ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/71 "2020-03-03T22:33:53Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > Rightā€¦ā€œtobaccoā€ smoke filled rooms. šŸ™‚ After 4/20, there might be an adjustment. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/72 "2020-03-03T22:59:23Z")
[This page on Vox has the](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/super-tuesday-2020-live-updates_n_5e5d2423c5b6732f50e5c392) poll closing times, in US Eastern time, for those who might find it useful. The first 3 close in about an hour - Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/73 "2020-03-03T23:22:37Z")
Virginia is a key early-poll-close state. If itā€™s ā€œtoo close to callā€, then Bernie might be on his way to a good night. If he wins the state, he could be on his way to a great night. If Biden blows him out of the water like SC, then Biden could be on his way to a good-to-great night. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/74 "2020-03-03T23:24:49Z")
Snap shot of PredictIt derived win probabilities as of about right now. Ranked from most Bideny to the Berniest. ```auto State Biden Sanders Alabama 98.0% 2.0% Virginia 95.0% 5.0% North Carolina 93.9% 6.1% Arkansas 93.5% 6.5% Tennessee 88.8% 11.2% Oklahoma 80.2% 19.8% Texas 54.3% 45.7% Minnesota 21.2% 78.8% Massachusetts 19.3% 80.7% Maine 12.1% 87.9% Utah 10.4% 89.6% Colorado 8.2% 91.8% California 8.0% 92.0% Vermont 1.0% 99.0% ``` Looks like the Texas market might be the most interesting. Massachusetts is a little weird here because Warren is ahead of Biden there. My final [Super Tuesday Tracker](https://twitter.com/Very_Stable_G/status/1234976859701440512) has more detailed time series info. ---
**Author:** ![WildaBeast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wildabeast/32/6_2.png) [@WildaBeast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WildaBeast)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/75 "2020-03-03T23:37:59Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > I canā€™t wait to hear the conspiracies if Biden does well and California takes forever to count. > > We already know now that California will take forever to count. Iā€™m sure if Biden does well, the Bernie people will be making accusations that the DNC is fixing things in California. Iā€™ve already seen complaints from Bernie supporters on social media complaining that Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawing before Super Tuesday was some sort of dirty trick by the DNC to hurt Bernie. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2020, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/76 "2020-03-03T23:39:19Z")
voted today in NC and the crowd seemed larger than normal for a primary but I donā€™t recall the crowd size in 2016 ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2020, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/77 "2020-03-04T00:01:34Z")
Biden projected winner in VA. No data to call VT. At closing timeā€¦big night for Uncle Joe? ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2020, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/78 "2020-03-04T00:11:29Z")
Biden wins Virginia and according to Nate Silver: ā€œBloomberg is considerably underperforming in the exit polls; it looks like heā€™s at around 11 percent vs. our projection of 17 percent.ā€ Good news for Biden. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2020, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/79 "2020-03-04T00:16:07Z")
At least I can take comfort that Bloomberg is doing poorly. Hopefully Bernie will get Texas and do well outside of the south. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2020, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741/80 "2020-03-04T00:24:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > At least I can take comfort that Bloomberg is doing poorly. Hopefully Bernie will get Texas and do well outside of the south. Hopefully Biden will do well in TX and embarrass Bernie. Iā€™d love to drink some Bernie tears [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/super-tuesday-primary-discussion/848741.md?page=5)