# Supercomputers and Artificial Intelligence Impact Survey 2020++

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/supercomputers-and-artificial-intelligence-impact-survey-2020/518323>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [November 20, 2009, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/supercomputers-and-artificial-intelligence-impact-survey-2020/518323 "2009-11-20T20:04:58Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![ready29003](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71e660/32.png) [@ready29003](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ready29003)\
**Post date:** [November 20, 2009, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/supercomputers-and-artificial-intelligence-impact-survey-2020/518323/1 "2009-11-20T20:04:58Z")

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According to this chart, we are looking at 2020 as the date when a supercomputer exists that can simulate/model a human brain in real time:

[Latest chart from IBM Blue matter team indicating time line for supercomputer brain modeling and the human brain](http://www.modha.org/C2S2/2009/11182009/content/top500figP3.JPG)

If the trend holds, then it follows that by 2030 a super computer will exist that can simulate a brain 10x more complex than a human brain. And by 2040, a supercomputer will exist that can simulate a brain 100x more complex then a human brain.

[You can read much more about this here:…](http://p9.hostingprod.com/@modha.org/blog/2009/11/post_3.html)

So what do you think will happen over the decades following the day a supercomputer is capable of simulating a brain as complex as a human brain?

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**Author:** ![Dervorin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Dervorin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dervorin)\
**Post date:** [November 20, 2009, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/supercomputers-and-artificial-intelligence-impact-survey-2020/518323/2 "2009-11-20T20:25:54Z")

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Not a clue. However, simulating something doesn’t mean anything necessarily - it might simulate it at a rate much slower than it actually runs.

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**Author:** ![ready29003](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71e660/32.png) [@ready29003](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ready29003)\
**Post date:** [March 30, 2026, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/supercomputers-and-artificial-intelligence-impact-survey-2020/518323/3 "2026-03-30T01:08:41Z")

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Looks like we are probably past this threshold.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [March 30, 2026, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/supercomputers-and-artificial-intelligence-impact-survey-2020/518323/4 "2026-03-30T02:05:57Z")

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Oh? Do you have a supercomputer in your back pocket that’s that much further advanced than what anyone else has? Because nobody who’s published anything has one that’s anywhere near being able to simulate a full brain.

ChatGPT is impressive, but that’s not at all what it is. It might be a simulator of a human mind, or at least a portion of a human mind (we don’t know enough about the human mind to be sure on that one), but it’s definitely not a simulation of the hardware, nor a simulation of the whole thing.