Any chance that Scotland could separate from England and form a union with Ireland? A United Republic instead of a United Kingdom?
After Irish Independence there was a vicious civil war between different factions of the IRA over support for the treaty negotiated with the UK. That had consequences for decades afterwards and can still be seen in the fundamental political divisions between political parties that exists to this day. The scars left by civil wars last for generations.
While there was some sectarian discrimination against Protestants, the political divisions between Irish of whatever religious affiliation was the greater problem. It left a legacy of bitterness. Years later there were still unofficial blacklists operating depending on which side you were on. Emigration has always been an option in Ireland. When life becomes difficult, people leave.
I’m…not convinced the vast majority of Scots would be remotely interested in that. Those that want to separate from England want independence, not another master.
Agreed, but I hope we are not going back to the days of Bobby Sands
Capt
A slight tangent, but I just finished reading Say Nothing: A True Story of Murder and Memory in Northern Ireland and I’d recommend it to anyone interested in what life was like in and around Belfast during the Troubles. It is largely focused on the IRA side of things, so there’s not much there about the loyalist side. It does make me think that, even though the violence has been quieted for years now, the grudges run very, very deep.
And even a further side note, there is an absolutely marvelous detective series by Adrian McKinty about a Catholic police officer in the Royal Ulster Constabulary during the Troubles. The stories are fiction but the atmosphere of Belfast he creates is quite evocative.
The movie ‘Michael Collins’ with Liam Neeson in the title role, is set in the time of the Irish war of independence and the subsequent Irish civil war.
It is a very engaging drama and the acting is first rate.
The Irish Question is not really so much about religion these days. It is about the fundamentals of power and politics - The Constitution. Ireland never really bought into the United Kingdom political project so it there was always going to be a fault line there. Constitutional divisions affect many countries, they never quite go away and from time to time they flare up into a crisis. Ireland has had enough of that.
It would certainly be a fine thing if a lots of kids got together and sorted it all out for the benefit of the all the cranky seniors during a spring break. I am not sure it would result in world peace, but they would certainly have a hoot. 
I should think any theoretical union between Scotland and Ireland would be more of a union of equals, but especially given the existence of the European Union, there doesn’t seem to be any compelling reason for one.
It’d be a back-door entrance for Scotland into the EU. I have no idea if that’s important or not.
On the basis of the comments so far:
The Troubles have not been forgotten, they could come back if the situation goes pear-shaped and any particular group feels really unhappy. From what I have read, NI is getting close to a 50/50 split on joining up with the RoI, but that is just a return of the Brexit, with a hair-thin majority either way. My feeling on referendums as a whole is that they should not be held until it is very clear that the public as a whole overwhelming favor a particular option. I think this will apply even more so to NI. A seriously disgruntled and relatively sizeable minority that will resort to violence if need be will simply bring back the Troubles. Consider that Ireland was on the verge of extreme militancy by the Ulster Protestants on the eve of WW1.
It looks as if people are changing their attitudes, but slowly, and it is mainly the younger ones who are more tolerant. The older ones remember the bombings and shootings, they have long memories. It would be nice if the process could be made to go faster, but I think it will take up to a generation for it to be a viable and widely accepted possibility.
If the Brexit really hits NI hard, what with the loss of the EU subsidies and if Westminster.does not replace them, then the economic stress will force all alternatives to be considered. But, the RoI is not pressing for reunification in view of the potential costs, as NI is a money pit.
Scotland. I dunno. The SNP keeps making noises, but seems to be totally clueless about how to deal with reality, either now or in a posited future. It is like the Brexit talk of “never mind the economic side, as least we have sovereignty”, and in fact Scotland would have very little extra sovereignty if independent, and possibly less, as it would probably have to use the GBP, and would not quality to be in the Euro-zone. The big problem is that the Scottish economy is very closely tied to the English one, even thought the SNP choose to ignore this.
Scotland and the EU; it would not meet the economic criteria, and after the debacle with Greece that was let into the EU on the basis of optimistically padded figures, I don’t think Scotland would get any exemptions. The EU and the various European financial institutions might well refuse to take on an economic basket case. And, last but not last, all the current EU members have to agree to Scotland being admitted. Just one “no”, and that is it.
Wales? Fergeddit. A small and not very well balanced economy, no real resources (apart from sheep and touristy castles), a work force that seldom has a knowledge of foreign languages or a talent for internationalism; it is simply not viable even within the bosom of the EU. Unless it exploits one of the loopholes, such as Luxembourg and a lower rate of VAT to attract foreign companies. But the world already has its share of tax havens, and they are under attack. Otherwise, Wales does not have much of an IT industry, or a services industry, or any other industry now for that matter. Wales might be down there with Malta, which does well out of the EU, but what could Wales give back?
However, if the Brexit manages to actually be even worse than the most gloomy predictions, then all bets are off.
Could you elaborate on the issues of power, politics and the Constitution? The ROI appears to have a fairly commonplace parliament structure so perhaps you’re talking about the representation aspect but that’s just a guess on my part.
An election system geek like me was interested to learn that the ROI is one of the few places on the planet using multi-member constituencies with single transferable voting.
I second the recommendation of Say Nothing. I’ve read a few books on the Troubles and this is my favorite, by far. There was treachery on both sides and very few saints. If a referendum were held and the North voted to unite with RoI, there would, no doubt be violence. But without the support of the English, the Loyalists would be looking at a much different picture than before. It would still be a disaster without an overwhelming majority in the North supporting the move. I’m talking 90% or more and I don’t see that happening in the near future. A good friend of mine came to America from Ballymurphy - a Belfast neighborhood in the the thick of it.and as a teen was directly involved in IRA actions. HIs hate for the Brits and Prots runs deep .
An article I read somewhere claimed that the first question out of the EU negotiators’ mouths at the very first Brexit talks was “what are you going to do about your land border with the EU?” and the reaction from the UK negotiators was stunned silence.
Now whether this was because they had hoped not to get confronted with that difficult question first up, or because they had forgotten about it, wasn’t entirely clear. But certainly the article suggested it was the latter.
I wasn’t referring to the electoral system.
Ireland is a comparatively young as an independent nation state. It made its bid for independence from the UK with the 1916 Easter Rising, hoping to get help from Germany. That was put down severely by the British and its leaders were either imprisoned or executed. Nonetheless they had made a proclamation of a Irish Republic as a separate political entity from the UK and independent of it. That had consequences.
After a few years of guerilla war negotiations took place between the leadership of the IRA and the British authorities and a Anglo Irish treaty in 1920, recognising the Irish Free State with Dominion status within the British Commonwealth. That meant the UK could pass laws that had force within the Irish Free State. There was also the not inconsiderable issue of the oath of allegiance to the King. Part of it provided for the six counties of Northern Ireland to opt out of this arrangement and remain part of the UK.
For the British this achieved a prescence in Northern Ireland to guarantee its swift response to any security threat from a foreign power that might think of using Ireland as a base from which to threaten the UK. Much of the industrial base of the Ireland was also located in the North and the politics were dominated by the Irish Protestants who were very Unionist. The Royal Navy would also have access to Treaty Ports in the Irish Free State.
While the Treaty was accepted as a positive step on the path to independence by one part of the leadership of the IRA, it was rejected as a betrayal of the principles of complete independence that were fought for in 1916. This dispute led to the Irish Civil war.
Dominion status was alteres in 1931 to give up the right of the UK to legislate and allow British dominions to become self governing colonies. In 1937 the Irish Free State declared a new constitution. This claimed whole of Ireland, but accepted that it could not legislate in Northern Ireland. It pursued a deft policy of neutrality during WW2. In 1948, Ireland declared itself an independent Republic of Ireland. Independent, but poor. Its fortunes and its outlook on the world changed when it joined the EEC in 1973, later to become the European Union. The EU has been very good for small states, they get a seat at the big table.
The constitutional fault line in Northern Ireland erupted in the late 1960s, inspired by the civil rights campaigns in the US. In Northern Ireland it was protests against the domination by the Protestant interests over those of the Catholics. The developed into a low level civil war that lasted 40 years and became the UK’s domestic terrorist problem.
It was resolved in 1998 with the Good Friday Agreement which contained a change in the Constitution of the Irish Republic to remove claim to the North and recognise that it is part of the UK. In return the provisions of the 1920 Treaty regarding Northern Ireland and its claim over the rest of Ireland were repealed. It also provided for cross border institutions and Northern Ireland assembly. It recognised the rights of the people of Northern Ireland to decide their future. It is in the UK, but it leaves open the possibility that they may decide leave and perhaps join a united Ireland.
Membership of the EU by both the UK and Ireland made the dismantling of the border with Northern Ireland easy. These constitutional changes in the UK were extended to create similar devolved governments for Wales and Scotland. The amount of political capital spent on these changes to the UK constitution was considerable by both the administrations of John Major and Tony Blair.
Consequently there is more than a bit of alarm that the current PM, Boris Johnson, might upset this delicate balance with his wreckless Brexit escapades which is complicated the border issue. In Ireland, the Sinn Fein party are growing in influence and the constitution of that party is to work towards and united Ireland.
It is a delicate balance and there could be trouble ahead. However, I think everyone is quite well aware that referendums that simplify very complicated constitutional questions or major elements of trade policy are fraught with unintended consequences.
Will there be a referendum at some point by the people of Northern Ireland asking the question whether they would like to be part of a united Ireland?
It would have to be 100% in favour or Ireland would be handed a poisoned chalice indeed. The provisions of the Good Friday Agreement provide a fair amount of cross border latitude. So the border is pretty invisible in a lot of respects. Irish politicians have better fish to fry.
That is exactly what kills me about this whole Brexit thing. The “oops we forgot to think about what has happened over the past twenty years in reference to the Emerald Isle”. The Good Friday Accords were a watershed event in the not so distant past. How could the powers that be, be so daft?
Capt
If only they were…
Well, bear in mind that the UK government of the day hoped and expected that the 2016 referendum would affirm continuing membership of the EU. On that basis they did zero planning or modelling for the alternative outcome; to do so was considered defeatist. When the referendum result was announced it emerged that, of the 28 EU member states, the one that had done least planning or preparation for the possiblity that the UK would leave the EU was the UK.
Those who advocating leaving in that referendum were not in government, and felt no responsiblity either for implementing a feasible brexit or even for campaigning for one. They called for the Grand Project; it was for others to make it actually happen in accordance with The Vision.
And that attitude has persisted; the Brexit movement is characterised by magical thinking, a conviction that they are entitled to the platonic ideal of a cost-free wholly-benefical Brexit and that other have a responsiblity to devise and deliver this, a studied avoidance of real-world difficult questions, and a sense of outrage and victimhood when reality intrudes.
It was obvious from the outset that Brexit would threaten the Irish border and, therefore, the stability of the NI peace settlement. Post-Brexit, “no hard border” was one of the earliest red lines that the UK government adopted (and the EU shares this objective, so it really shouldn’t be controversial). But many Brexiters give the impression of believing that it is enough for the UK simply to say that it doesn’t want a hard border in Ireland; there is no need actually to follow through with viable, deliverable measures to avoid one, and that being expected or required to do so by teh grownups in the room is a sinister plot and a vile oppression.
The powers that be had almost nothing to do with it. Brexit was a lark stirred up by buffoons and rabble rousers who enjoyed the yuks and cheers they could evoke by playing on “Little Englander” xenophobia. The leaders of the movement probably never expected to win and never considered any of the serious consequences of doing so.
They couldn’t have done it without the cooperation of the establishment in power at the time. David Cameron made a devil’s bargain with the radical right in order to stay in power, the same bargain that the Republicans in the United States are making with fascists now.
Funny (or not so) my UK friends knew Brexit would be at Sh*tshow and voted against. One even asked me “what is the plan for Northern Ireland?” before the referendum.
Stupid Wankers
Capt