# Suppose Kerry Wins, But...... **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 11, 2004, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821 "2004-06-11T15:22:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2004, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821/21 "2004-06-12T01:21:25Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Republicans retain control of Congress. > > It seems a likely scenario to me. Republicans have a slim lead, and probably will keep it. Sounds like the perfect scenario for a small government conservative, if you could only bring yourself to admit it. Vote Kerry, you know you want to. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2004, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821/22 "2004-06-12T04:52:05Z")
Mr. Kevin Drum, previously of _Calpundit_ offers this compilation of various polling numbers that suggest, at least to him, that this election may become known amongst the Tighty Righties as the Foggy Bottom Masacree. > **[Washington Monthly Magazine](https://washingtonmonthly.com/)** > > We’re an independent voice, listened to by insiders and willing to take on sacred cows—liberal and conservative. I’m precisely as skeptical as I am pessimistic, but wouldn’t that be a hoot! ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2004, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821/23 "2004-06-12T06:42:33Z")
WTF is a “Hillary style spending bill” supposed to mean? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2004, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821/24 "2004-06-12T12:56:31Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Mr. Kevin Drum, previously of _Calpundit_ offers this compilation of various polling numbers that suggest, at least to him, that this election may become known amongst the Tighty Righties as the Foggy Bottom Masacree. > > [http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/](http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/) > > I’m precisely as skeptical as I am pessimistic, but wouldn’t that be a hoot! I would be drop-dead astonished if that happened. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2004, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821/25 "2004-06-12T18:02:03Z")
> [@MMI](#): > > I think rolling back the Medicare drug bill is one way to start, as there is just enough vague general disapproval that it isn’t political suicide. Not that the GOP won’t rip him a new one while they sigh in secret approval. I would be astounded if Kerry even considered this, except to replace it with a hugely more expensive program. He may try some stuff about importing cheap drugs from Canada, but that won’t make enough difference to matter. Some kind of reform to the Medicare prescription drug bill is Kerry’s best/only chance to do anything at all about health care. > [@MMI](#): > > I think that this situation would almost require us to bug out of Iraq. That would be suicide. Come what might, Iraq goes down the toilet into internecine warfare, and Kerry has the choice between becoming LBJ (“Hey, hey, JFK - how many kids did you kill today?”), or Nixon and standing by while some brand-new despot takes over. > [@MMI](#): > > I don’t think cutting Soc. Sec. benefits is either morally or politically viable. Plus it would probably be unwise to announce that the US government feels no obligation to pay its debts when it requires massive foreign investment to pay for itself. One of the major problems with electing Kerry. Something needs to be done about Social Security. A gridlocked President and Congress aren’t going to be able to achieve anything. And the longer we wait, the worse it gets. > [@MMI](#): > > My guess is that the President could go on the offensive and make it very plain who is forcing him to cut road bills, veterans benefits, etc. across the board. Unless the GOP leadership has gotten better at the game since Gingrich they will most likely be forced to compromise on something (although Kerry is certainly no Clinton). I don’t know about this. Kerry is not a strong legislator. I see no indication that he would be able to achieve much against the Republican tide in Congress, which is one reason I started this thread, and the Republicans shut down the government to get the budget balanced last time. And that was against Clinton, a far more canny politician (to say the least) than the rather hapless Kerry. It may be the best thing for Kerry if the Congress treats him basically as an irrelevance, and goes ahead with its agenda regardless. Then Kerry has a chance to take credit for a recovering economy and whatever successes Congress can put together in balancing the budget, or other kinds of social programs. Party unity, on both sides, is going to be important if Kerry wins. Neither side will be able to achieve much without it. Clinton was more centrist than Kerry, as well as a better politician, and it did Clinton little good in achieving what he claimed he wanted. (Other than re-election, the only thing Clinton really cared about.) I suspect Kerry and Co. are in for a big surprise if and when they win. OK, Democrats, you wanted “anybody but Bush”. Now you elected him. What are you going to do with him, when his big promises hit the roadblocks of the actual legislative process? Kerry shows little history of actually achieving big things. Are you going to be satisfied with four years of Kerry declaring National Friends of the Earth Day, while the majority leaders of both houses do the heavy lifting? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![pervert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/bbe5ce/32.png) [@pervert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pervert)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2004, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821/26 "2004-06-12T18:23:07Z")
> [@blowero](#): > > WTF is a “Hillary style spending bill” supposed to mean? :rolleyes: It was an innocent reference to the Healthcare proposal made in Clintons first term. ---
**Author:** ![pantom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/34f0e0/32.png) [@pantom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pantom)\ **Post date:** [June 12, 2004, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821/27 "2004-06-12T19:02:16Z")
It should be noted that whoever the next Prez is is going to face both a recovery and inflation, increasing inflation, for the first time since Carter. Oil and copper have staged very big moves already. The era of flat to falling commodity prices, a condition of the world since Reagan, is, IMO, over. If the economy continues to recover and China doesn’t crack up completely, there’s a lot of inflation that can happen over the next few years. Inflation is very good for debt, and if Kerry manages to even just tweak the already-passed tax cuts to nullify a few of them, he could easily find himself swimming in surplus funds. (OTOH, interest rates could shoot up, which would do nasty things to the interest on that debt. Best not to think too much about that, though.) That would mean he could find it very easy to pass his agenda. And I saw that stuff from Drum on the stats for past Congressional elections. I think if you look at what’s happened already in India, where the nationalist right-wing party got a pasting, and over in Britain, where the Laborites have been defeated in a couple of elections for MP seats that came up, it doesn’t generally look good for incumbents anywhere. Seems to be the way of the democratic world these days. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-kerry-wins-but/249821.md?page=1)