# Suppose the world does nothing about climate change. Will we adapt? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 23, 2017, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525 "2017-02-23T04:51:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/81 "2017-03-02T17:39:31Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > Various studies disagree with your assessment of the impact from sea level rise [1,2,3] (I can provide a few hundred more if needed). Also, this is a problem that expand beyond just Florida and New Orleans or the USA in general. As you can see in [1] this is a global issue and can significantly hurt entire regions of the world. From your first citation: > [@](#): > > Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sea- level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment and consideration. That actually agrees completely with my assessment … there are large uncertainties … from 8" to 6’ of rise {[Cite](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level)} … your third citation focuses on the damages from sea level rise without any mitigation efforts … if we didn’t build any sea walls of any kind anywhere in the world … then yeah, of course there would be serious problems … but I believe with much certainty we will build sea walls where necessary … also, I only have access to the abstract this side of the pay wall … would you please read the entire article and post their explanation as to why the salt marshes will disappear and not move inland … > [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > And this is just talking about sea level rise. This ignores changes in global crop development and political instability from poor food security from decreased local food production [4,5]. If you think the refugee situation has been a problem wait until climate refugees starts becoming a significant issue. This ignores ocean acidification [6,7]. This ignores all of the other problems associated with climate change. Your fourth citation pretty much hedges their claims, perhaps there’s better information in the paper behind the pay wall … but the abstract clearly states only some of their scenarios produce food shortages, some of their scenarios produce food neutrality … as though there’s great uncertainty about the results … How are we to separate out the socio-political causes of great migrations? … the refugees entering Europe right now are fleeing warfare, it’s not that crops don’t grow in Syria, it’s that everyone is shooting at everyone else … a person could die in that environment … Look at the Indian Subcontinent in the late 1940’s, we start with too many people to begin with, add heaping doses of religious intolerance and only allow a few years to move … it was horrible … any climate or weather related issues are at best stressors to an already bad situation … give this peace and patience and a hundred years … maybe things wouldn’t be as bad … look to regions of the world where peaceful coexistence has a long history, 40 million refugees move and assimilate giving prosperity to all involved … > [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > So even if solving sea level rise was just a simple matter of building walls, which it isn’t and lets recall did not hold in New Orleans, climate change promises to cause many more problems. The only logical course of action is to do something to reduce the damage. Building three foot sea walls to mitigate sea level rise is simple … building twenty foot sea walls to mitigate major hurricanes is not so simple … we only need protection during high tide, and with anything built by the hands of man, it will need maintenance … it’s a proven technology … Your citations speak to uncertainties … you speak of promises … I’m not making the connect here … what is certain is that we will run out of fossil fuels … logically we should be severely limiting our utter dependence on the filthy stuff … starting immediately … “climate change” is an unnecessary mechanic to skyrocket food prices in our cities … they will anyway to pay the costs of building nuclear power plants and electrifying the railroads … perhaps the destruction of civilization as we know says more about civilization as we know it not being very good, especially since it depends on cheap energy … we’ll have to change when energy isn’t so cheap … It’s very clear what will be done with the more difficult aspects of CO[sub]2[/sub] pollution in 75 years … just look at Oak Ridge and Hanford today … and I’d say the most difficult is conservation, getting everyone to use less energy … try asking Americans to ditch their AC (never going to happen) … ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/82 "2017-03-03T06:12:10Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Building three foot sea walls to mitigate sea level rise is simple … building twenty foot sea walls to mitigate major hurricanes is not so simple … we only need protection during high tide, and with anything built by the hands of man, it will need maintenance … it’s a proven technology … Again, you ignore the issues that Florida has, and even when it can work the costs are increasing while less people decide to remain in a place like New Orleans. The costs of the “proven technology” (again, thinking of Florida here) are also included in many of the studies. As usual, they tell us that the most logical course of action is to prevent most of the CO2 to be dumped in the atmosphere. There is little chance now that we can avoid some changes, but it is important that the oceans do not rise to higher levels than the conservative estimates are telling us. And someone will still have to pay for the more innovative (yes more expensive) walls. It was yesterday when we should had taxed our emissions. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/83 "2017-03-03T07:17:25Z")
What will the sea walls eventually cost? A large chunk of California could be saved by damming the Carquinez Strait, right? That should be fairly cheap. I’m almost surprised they’re not doing this now, to utilize more fresh water from the Sacramento River. The New York City area is fairly elevated, I guess, if we don’t mind losing Newark. But I suppose we’d just give up on much of Florida. And what about Bangkok and surrounding area? It’s barely above sea level. What would it cost to build a sea wall to salvage the largest city in mainland S.E. Asia? ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/84 "2017-03-03T17:28:17Z")
The highest elevation in the Republic of Maldives is 7 meters above sea level. In other words, scratch one country. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/85 "2017-03-03T17:54:45Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > What will the sea walls eventually cost? A large chunk of California could be saved by damming the Carquinez Strait, right? That should be fairly cheap. I’m almost surprised they’re not doing this now, to utilize more fresh water from the Sacramento River. > > The New York City area is fairly elevated, I guess, if we don’t mind losing Newark. But I suppose we’d just give up on much of Florida. > > And what about Bangkok and surrounding area? It’s barely above sea level. What would it cost to build a sea wall to salvage the largest city in mainland S.E. Asia? I don’t know … how expensive is it? … Three foot stem wall on an simple footing and 25 foot of fill backing it up … certainly cheaper than a rural interstate freeway on a per mile basis … buying the real estate would be the most expensive part … so this would only happen in places worth protecting … It only gets wet for a few hours every other week … and we have fifty years to build it … I agree that this isn’t the best solution everyplace … Florida for sure is going underwater and there’s a number of places in similar difficulty … however it is a good solution for many other places … like Holland or the Delta region in California … ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/86 "2017-03-03T18:38:36Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > What will the sea walls eventually cost? A large chunk of California could be saved by damming the Carquinez Strait, right? That should be fairly cheap. I’m almost surprised they’re not doing this now, to utilize more fresh water from the Sacramento River. > > The New York City area is fairly elevated, I guess, if we don’t mind losing Newark. But I suppose we’d just give up on much of Florida. I’m not sure why you think creating a half-mile (ish) long barrier across an active shipping route is “cheap”. Lower Manhattan is actually not very elevated and suffered pretty severe flooding during Hurricane Sandy. Recently, there has been talks about using a 250 million dollar Federal grant to erect a seawall and other flood control measures along Weehawken, Hoboken and Jersey City NJ. That’s just building a 12 ft wall and some cisterns. I suppose what New York could do is put a movable sea wall across The Narrows like London has in The Themes. As people have pointed out, these things are not unconquerable engineering challenges. They are, however, political and financial ones. Sadly, most of our wall budget is going to go towards keeping Mexicans out. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/87 "2017-03-03T21:20:23Z")
I think with the discussion veering more toward sea level rise, it might be worth recalling that [it’s just one of a great many problematic consequences of climate change](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20021763&postcount=26) and, depending on how fast the rise accelerates and the extent to which there are stronger storm surges, it may be one of the more manageable problems compared to everything else, even if it’s disastrous for some states and countries. Unless the root cause underlying all these consequences is addressed, even a perfect low-cost solution to rising sea levels is pretty meaningless, even if such a thing were possible. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2017, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/88 "2017-03-04T23:01:42Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > [snip] … Recently, there has been talks about using a 250 million dollar Federal grant to erect a seawall and other flood control measures along Weehawken, Hoboken and Jersey City NJ. That’s just building a 12 ft wall and some cisterns … [snap] There are a number of coastal communities who are currently under-protected … and this a local choice, call it the “New Orleans effect”, live life like there’s no tomorrow … these communities above have to buy all that real estate anyway, just to protect themselves from current sea levels … so that wouldn’t be a cost associated with global warming … that’s hurricane country, and we’ve known that a long time … ---
**Author:** ![sear](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sear)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2017, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/89 "2017-03-06T06:42:58Z")
> [@](#): > > Suppose the world does nothing about climate change. Will we adapt? Famine is already an adversity that afflicts millions. In the U.S. we are accustomed to plenty. In fact, we reportedly throw away more food than some have. BUT !! Though it may not seem like it, we live pretty much hand to mouth. Humans can adapt. PUT ON A SWEATER !! But our crops evolved over millions of years. Contemporary agribidness is enormously productive. One acre of rain forest is enough to feed one aboriginal hunter-gatherer. But with modern technology, one acre of Iowa farm land can feed many times that many. Earth’s human population is dependent on a reliable and continuous food supply. Cut the food supply in half, what do you think will happen to the population? ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2017, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/90 "2017-03-06T15:54:31Z")
Do you mean half the food tomorrow or next year? … then many many people will starve to death … Do you mean half the food in a thousand years? … that will depend strictly on whether society will change … Nitpick … a surprising number of the food crops in the USA are engineered … they’ve only been around for twenty or thirty years … ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2017, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525/91 "2017-03-07T15:00:37Z")
History indicates that we will do very little and simply adapt incrementally. That’s exactly what has happened in Venice, the Netherlands, and Bangladesh. Currently Miami Beach is inundated at high tide and during rain storms. But, there is no mass exodus or dramatic drop in property values. For many years people built homes on stilts in Biscayne Bay - ‘Stiltsville’. That will happen again only it will be in the metropolitan area, just as it is in Venice. Life will continue with the only difference being that at low tide you walk to shopping and at high tide you take your boat. Just like in Venice. Mass social adaptations occur very slowly. Military responses seem to be more rapid. Annexation of Canada to accommodate northern migration will likely be more popular than changing our lifestyles to avoid the need. Crane [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-the-world-does-nothing-about-climate-change-will-we-adapt/780525.md?page=4)