# Suppose we survive 2012, what's the next predicted doomsday?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Created:** [January 4, 2010, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591 "2010-01-04T05:24:35Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2010, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/1 "2010-01-04T05:24:35Z")
Like the title said. We make the long shot and survive until 2013. What’s the next opportunity for global disaster?
I know about the [Apophis meteor](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis) is supposed to take a couple of swings at us in 2029 and 2036. The odds listed in 2004 were 1 in 60, currently about 1 in 250,000. So it 's not looking too good for that one. The Russkies are planning on taking a shot at it anyway, probably more for practice for when it’s really needed than anything.
So what about it? Anything before then? Or after?
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### Author:  [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2010, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/2 "2010-01-04T23:06:54Z")
[2038](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y2038), maybe? That’s when the 32-bit time counter in \*nix systems wraps around to the negative.
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### Author:  [@Larry\_Mudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Mudd)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2010, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/3 "2010-01-04T23:35:27Z")
The absolute, hard date for the End Times is July 5th, 1998.
The saucer people _will_ come on this date, doling out retribution and powder-form Ecstasy as appropriate.
Due to certain metaphysical difficulties with our current calendar, it remains unclear as to precisely when it will be July 5th, 1998. It is almost certainly not in the year 8661 of our current reckoning; that’s just silly.
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### Author:  [@AdmiralCrunch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AdmiralCrunch)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/4 "2010-01-05T01:44:34Z")
> [@Larry\_Mudd](#):
>
> The absolute, hard date for the End Times is July 5th, 1998.
>
> The saucer people _will_ come on this date, doling out retribution and powder-form Ecstasy as appropriate.
>
> Due to certain metaphysical difficulties with our current calendar, it remains unclear as to precisely when it will be July 5th, 1998. It is almost certainly not in the year 8661 of our current reckoning; that’s just silly.
Well sure, that’s when the world ends on Earth, but Earth and Mars got switched back when we were too busy fighting the Nazis to notice.
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### Author:  [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/5 "2010-01-05T05:02:37Z")
We’ll all be dead by 2012. The date is [May 21, 2011](http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/01/01/BA8V1AV589.DTL&feed=rss.news)
> [@](#):
>
> Harold Camping lets out a hearty chuckle when he considers the people who believe the world will end in 2012.
>
> …
>
> Camping, 88, has scrutinized the Bible for almost 70 years and says he has developed a mathematical system to interpret prophecies hidden within the Good Book. One night a few years ago, Camping, a civil engineer by trade, crunched the numbers and was stunned at what he’d found: The world will end May 21, 2011.
>
> …
Sure, he’s been wrong before, but everybody makes mistakes.
> [@](#):
>
> This is not the first time Camping has made a bold prediction about Judgment Day.
>
> On Sept. 6, 1994, dozens of Camping’s believers gathered inside Alameda’s Veterans Memorial Building to await the return of Christ, an event Camping had promised for two years. Followers dressed children in their Sunday best and held Bibles open-faced toward heaven.
>
> But the world did not end. Camping allowed that he may have made a mathematical error. He spent the next decade running new calculations, as well as overseeing a media company that has grown significantly in size and reach.
>
> …
I just know he’s going to be right this time!
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### Author:  [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/6 "2010-01-05T05:12:12Z")
Has a doomsday prediction ever been right?
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### Author:  [@samlefou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samlefou)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/7 "2010-01-05T05:16:54Z")
Not yet, but it only needs to be right once
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### Author:  [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/8 "2010-01-05T05:37:11Z")
But then who’s going to be left to say I told you so?
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### Author:  [@Jragon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jragon)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/9 "2010-01-05T05:41:17Z")
> [@garygnu](#):
>
> Has a doomsday prediction ever been right?
Well, there was that one time, but we don’t talk about that day anymore those poor albino penguins… _shudder_. It was the second biggest apocalypse I’ve ever seen.
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### Author:  [@Gary\_Robson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_Robson)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/10 "2010-01-05T06:18:13Z")
> [@Jragon](#):
>
> Well, there was that one time, but we don’t talk about that day anymore those poor albino penguins… _shudder_. It was the second biggest apocalypse I’ve ever seen.
Ah, you paid for the good seats at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe, didn’t you?
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### Author:  [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/11 "2010-01-05T07:43:09Z")
> [@garygnu](#):
>
> Has a doomsday prediction ever been right?
There was once this genius dinosaur…
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### Author:  [@FriarTed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FriarTed)
#### Post date: [January 5, 2010, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/12 "2010-01-05T11:53:18Z")
I think 2018 (Israel turns 70), 2028 (Israel turns 80), 2034-37 (120 years since what was supposed by Charles Taze Russell to become Armageddon, but to his successors became the Beginning of Sorrows, also 2037 is the 70th anniversary of the Jewish recapture of Jerusalem), 2048 (Israel turns 100), 2068 (Israel at 120) and 2087 (120 for Jerusalem) will all be heralded by various Apocalyptic groups.
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### Author:  [@Illuminatiprimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Illuminatiprimus)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2010, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/13 "2010-01-06T16:23:48Z")
> [@FriarTed](#):
>
> I think 2018 (Israel turns 70), 2028 (Israel turns 80), 2034-37 (120 years since what was supposed by Charles Taze Russell to become Armageddon, but to his successors became the Beginning of Sorrows, also 2037 is the 70th anniversary of the Jewish recapture of Jerusalem), 2048 (Israel turns 100), 2068 (Israel at 120) and 2087 (120 for Jerusalem) will all be heralded by various Apocalyptic groups.
Hmmmmm - if only there were some logical pattern to these predictions that we could discern, they might make more sense…
😃
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### Author:  [@Ann\_Onimous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Onimous)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2010, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/14 "2010-01-06T16:40:24Z")
According to the Bible, no man will know the day or the hour. I can just see God laughing, going, “Oh, so you think it will be this day? Well, I’ll show you!” 😃
There’s also the argument that, when the resurrection happened, that it was the second coming. He was born, died and came back. In that case, it’s already happened.
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### Author:  [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2010, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/15 "2010-01-06T16:48:32Z")
> [@Juliana](#):
>
> According to the Bible, no man will know the day or the hour. I can just see God laughing, going, “Oh, so you think it will be this day? Well, I’ll show you!” 😃
So what we need to do is everyone pick a unique hour from now until the next…684,000 years. That should do it.
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### Author:  [@FriarTed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FriarTed)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2010, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/16 "2010-01-06T17:13:07Z")
> [@Illuminatiprimus](#):
>
> Hmmmmm - if only there were some logical pattern to these predictions that we could discern, they might make more sense…
>
> 😃
Actually, there is a weird sort of logic IF you go by certain premises.
Biblically, you have 40 years to a generation (Numbers 14: 34), threescore & ten (70) for a good long life and fourscore (80) for an exceptional one (Psalm 90:10), and 120 for the furthest time of probation before Judgment (Genesis 6: 3).
Next, you take a significant historical event that is seen as a Sign of The End, such as World War I, the creation of the State of Israel, or the recapture of Jerusalem, plug in the Biblically significant time-spans & Voila!
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### Author:  [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2010, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/17 "2010-01-06T17:49:44Z")
Don’t you remember back in '84 when the world blew up and we all moved to this planet?
We decided not to tell the stupid people because we thought it might upset them.
Ooops. Nevermind. Forget I said anything.
old Steve Martin joke
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### Author:  [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2010, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/18 "2010-01-06T20:28:07Z")
> [@Equipoise](#):
>
> We’ll all be dead by 2012. The date is [May 21, 2011](http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/01/01/BA8V1AV589.DTL&feed=rss.news)
>
> Sure, he’s been wrong before, but everybody makes mistakes.
>
> I just know he’s going to be right this time!
Civil engineer? I need to know what bridges he was involved with, so I can avoid them.
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### Author:  [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2010, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/19 "2010-01-06T23:58:46Z")
> [@FriarTed](#):
>
> Biblically, you have 40 years to a generation (Numbers 14: 34),
Only in a patriarchal society- in which all the fresh young girls get snapped up in polygamous marriages by the old farts running the tribe, and men can’t accumulate enough wealth and status to marry and sire children until they have grey hair- would a “generation” (the average age men are when their sons are born) be **forty**. :dubious:
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### Author:  [@Skylark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skylark)
#### Post date: [January 7, 2010, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/suppose-we-survive-2012-whats-the-next-predicted-doomsday/523591/20 "2010-01-07T01:18:55Z")
Forty for kids? Really? It starts getting dangerous to have a kid that old (not that there aren’t plenty of kids who turn out just fine). The average childbearing age is closer to 25-30 range, and that’s largely a modern development. ([link](http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_age_of_wom_at_fir_chi-health-age-women-first-childbirth)). In the days before “teenagers” were a bunch of no-good lawn-trodding ruffians, a male around the age of 17 would be expected to have a family and a steady job in the salt mines. In 1900 average life expectancy in this country was only barely past 40 (for some groups), and that was even _after_ germ theory. ([link](http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html)).
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