Update: Scotland has passed legislation that shortly will permit same sex marriage and, for those who wish it, conversion from same-sex civil partnership to same-sex marriage.
Not to mention that similar legislation already came into force in England and Wales in March. By the end of this year Northern Ireland will be the only part of the UK that does not allow same-sex marriage. (wiki)
It seems like the Supreme Court sent a pretty clear signal by declining to even hear the challenges in the recent 5 cases. Unless some Circuit Court rule against marriage equality, I expect the Supreme Court will just continue to declining to hear them for a while.
As for the remaining states, every single one of them has a lawsuit pending where same-sex couples are challenging their states’ law banning same-sex marriage. Eventually they will get their day in court. I expect that somewhere they will get a troglodyte judge who rules against same-sex marriage, but that will be apealed, and the Circuit Court will likely overturn it.
What hasn’t happened yet is a ruling in a more conservative Circuit that could well rule the other way. A ruling is due any day now in the 6th (MI, OH, KY and TN) that will probably go pro-SSM but might not. Arguments will will soon be held in the 5th which covers TX, LA and MS for a case each in TX and LA that have been combined. That is the one that could very well turn the tide.
I’m not quite following your meaning; are you saying the 5th Circuit is made up of more conservative judges who may rule against SSM? Or is the 6th more likely to do that?
From my reading, the 6th is more conservative and could go anti-SSM. They are due to issue a ruling soon. The 5th tends to be very conservative. They are about to hear arguments so their ruling is a ways off.
Meet Jeffrey Sutton, the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals judge who is thought to have the deciding vote on the SSM cases which could be announced at any time.
Some point out that his track record isn’t particularly hopeful for those who support SSM.
However, the buzzfeed article analyzed his questions during the oral arguments.
The article goes through to list some of the concerns he raised, including if Baker is still the controlling precedent. The writer believed that Sutton may have tried to hold out, waiting to see which way SCOTUS goes. Now that’s decided, it will be interesting to see how he decides.
Minor update: Idaho went legal today courtesy of the Ninth circuit, and tomorrow is a big day as the federal judge hearing the Arizona case demanded arguments by then (and is anticipated to rule tomorrow? I don’t know my jurisprudence) and the Wyoming case is scheduled for hearing tomorrow as well.
Apparently the Sixth circuit is due to rule soon, although I can’t find out when, if such information has even been released.
Yes, pretty much. But it would likely not be heard by the Court until next Spring at the earliest.
The Supreme Court could duck the issue for a while, by denying cert to an appeal of a 6th Circuit ruling against SSM, finding that there was some minor difference that distinguishes that case from the other Circuit rulings. But I don’t think that is likely. The arguments in all these cases are pretty much the same (which the SC showed when they did all 5 of those previous cases at once).