# Survivor 12/12 **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [December 12, 2002, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237 "2002-12-12T12:56:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![dragongirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b38774/32.png) [@dragongirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dragongirl)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/1 "2002-12-12T12:56:10Z")
The title for tonight’s episode is _The Tides are Turning_. I would like to believe that Jan is going tonight, but with that title I’m afraid that it’s going to be Brian, which will suck, he’s been playing the best game so far. What do you think ? ---
**Author:** ![In\_Conceivable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/4bbf92/32.png) [@In\_Conceivable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/In_Conceivable)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/2 "2002-12-12T13:07:11Z")
I am hoping that it will be Clay. Helen and Jan want Clay gone. It seems that Ted isn’t too fond of him either. It will be hard for Brian to keep Clay around with out messing up his other “deals”. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/3 "2002-12-12T13:20:26Z")
Clay or Helen. Which one Brian will choose to go forward with, I can’t tell. But he’d be smarter to kick Helen, since she might beat him in F2 and she’s an immunity threat. ---
**Author:** ![David\_B](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/51bf81/32.png) [@David\_B](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_B)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/4 "2002-12-12T14:21:42Z")
I agree with minty – either Clay or Helen. What we saw last week would make us think it’s Clay, which therefore leads me to believe it’s actually Helen who is going. ---
**Author:** ![Mullinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@Mullinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mullinator)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/5 "2002-12-12T14:46:58Z")
I have no clue, which is nice after about 5 weeks of it being pretty obvious. I hope Helen goes. I really like her, but I want Brian to win just so Survivor can be won by a porn star. So many good headlines are just waiting to be born. ---
**Author:** ![BiblioCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@BiblioCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BiblioCat)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/6 "2002-12-12T15:26:23Z")
I think it will be Helen or Jan. I have a feeling the guys will gang up on the girls and kick them out one after the other. My guesses: This week: Helen or Jan Next week: Jan or Helen Then I’m not so sure. If Brian wins the final immunity, he will dump Ted in favor of Clay. He knows he can win easily over Clay, but not over Ted. Brian would win, 7-0. If Clay wins the final immunity, I’m not sure who he’ll bring with him, but he won’t win. Brian would win over Clay, 7-0, and Ted would win over Clay, also. If the final two are Ted and Clay, Ted would win, maybe 5-2 or 6-1. If Ted wins the final immunity, he’ll bring Brian along with him, and I think it will be close, but Brian will win, 4-3. ---
**Author:** ![BiblioCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@BiblioCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BiblioCat)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/7 "2002-12-12T15:30:25Z")
**David B** , a quick question…since you’re the resident expert. Is it correct that whoever wins the final immunity has never won the million dollars? On S1, Kelly won it, and took Rich with her to the final 2, and Rich won. On the Africa Survivor, Kim won it and took Ethan with her, and Ethan won it. On the Australian Survivor, Colby won it, and took whats-her-name with him, and she won it. On the S4, who won the final immunity, Vecepeia or Nelah? Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![elf6c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c57346/32.png) [@elf6c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elf6c)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/8 "2002-12-12T15:32:43Z")
Ted is catching on. Therefore Brian has to choose between Ted and Clay. The key is how much control Helen has over granny Jan. However, granny Jan cares about who is working around camp. Clay is not. So unless Clay wins immunity tonight-- I predict he is gone. If he does win immunity- Jan hits the bricks. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/9 "2002-12-12T17:29:01Z")
**Bibliocat:** I’m not DavidB, but I do read his website. [The Final Survivor Immunity Challenge: A Death Wish?](http://www.realitynewsonline.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=1&article=article2515.art&page=1) No winner of the final IC has ever won the million. And there is no way that Brian would beat Clay 7-0. No freakin’ way. I think it would actually be a fairly close vote, since Brian is definitely going to lose some votes when he starts tossing people overboard. They’ll look at that as “OMG, you chose _Clay_ over _me_? WTF is wrong with you?” I’m leaning towards Helen getting the boot tonight. Ted is the swing vote, and he’s got a better chance of F2 with Clay and Brian than he does with Jan and Helen. ---
**Author:** ![Mullinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@Mullinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mullinator)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/10 "2002-12-12T17:57:06Z")
> [@](#): > > They’ll look at that as “OMG, you chose Clay over me? WTF is wrong with you?” I disagree. I think the other 4 all know that Clay is the one you want to be paired with. They may have hurt feelings temporarily, but I doubt they would let that get in the way of stiffing Clay. I say it goes 5-2 or 6-1 no matter who faces Clay. ---
**Author:** ![DKW](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dkw/32/3118_2.png) [@DKW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DKW)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/11 "2002-12-12T18:28:01Z")
minty green - Not being privy to the many, many, MANY things the producers aren’t showing us, and knowing their penchant for exaggerating and distorting nearly everything in their attempts to create “characters”…well, I have no idea if there really is a final immunity curse. But I’d doubt it. Looking back at Survivor 1, the real turning point wasn’t Kelly’s last IC victory, but her first, against Colleen. If Colleen wins, Kelly’s toast, and all it takes is a repeat of Kelly’s remarkable run to _destroy_ Richard in the final vote. If she’s eventually eliminated anyway (which is likely), Sue would’ve made it to the end and edged out Richard. Or maybe not. My point is, the moment Colleen took the walk, the chances of anyone outside the core alliance (Richard-Sue-Rudy) winning became zip and none. All Kelly’s choice amounted to was picking her poison. Survivor 2. Colby. I feel like I’m repeating myself for the 2,000th time, but here goes. _He didn’t care which one of them won._ Yes, she would’ve done the same for him. Yes, they enjoyed a big laugh about this after the show. Colby, quite simply, was more concerned about the goodwill and good relations he’d have with Tina in the future. (And maybe, oh, I dunno, she might have _repaid_ him in some way? Just because you can’t split the money right then and there doesn’t mean you can’t use it to show your gratitude later.) I say lay the hell off the poor guy already. This is getting old. Survivor 3, similar position. Kim was toast, and she knew it…even realitynewsonline admits this. The only question was which of the two remaining contestants she felt deserved it more. Hard to argue with her choice now, hmm? And I’ve seen Survivor 4, and it was a damn crapshoot from start to finish. No one would’ve picked _either_ of the finallists to get that far. It was pure luck of the draw and being in the right place in the right time, and Vecepia was a little luckier than everyone else. All I’m saying is that we really shouldn’t be buying into any “curses”, questioning the thinking of people we’ve seen maybe 3% of, or generally making any great pronouncements about a weird outdoor game show where the rules change all the time. Thanky you. [P.S.: It’s gonna be Brian or Jan. I think.] ---
**Author:** ![BiblioCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@BiblioCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BiblioCat)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/12 "2002-12-12T18:41:33Z")
I still say if the Final 2 are Clay and Brian, Brian will win it 7-0, or MAYBE, just maybe, 6-1. Maybe someone will give Clay one vote. Who would, though? Ted…would most likely vote for Brian Helen…would definitely vote for Brian Jan…would NEVER vote for Clay, so Brian gets her vote Erin…I think she’d vote for Brian Jake…I doubt he’d vote for Clay, so Brian gets his vote Penny…I also think she’d vote for Brian Ken…Maybe would vote for Clay Of course, that’s going on a Brian-Clay Final Two. I have no idea what’s going to happen. This week they kick someone off, and then next week is the 2-hour finale, right? They always go into it with four. Tonight should be pretty interesting. I still think one of the girls will go. I think the Old Boys Club will get rid of the girls first. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/13 "2002-12-12T19:23:01Z")
Why do so many people think Jan will be booted early? She’s terribly annoying, and she isn’t an IC threat in the slightest. That’s the kind of person you want to keep around, especially if you can convince her to vote with you. If Brian can swing it, he’s better off getting rid of Helen and Ted, who are bigger immunity threats and would get more jury votes than Jan or Clay. I’m picking Jan for the final 3. ---
**Author:** ![Mullinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@Mullinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mullinator)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/14 "2002-12-12T19:38:34Z")
They may be thinking (and I would say rightfully so) that Jan is a big threat for mental challenges like island or islandmate trivia. Since those are usually reserved for the latter portions of the game, it may not be a bad idea to vote her off when possible and also eliminate a wild card vote. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/15 "2002-12-12T20:29:40Z")
I’m not buying into any curse either, **DKW**. I was merely answering the question of whether it was true that no winner of the final IC has ever won the game. My answer demonstrated that it is in fact true. That said, there is a good reason why you would rather be the one _taken_ into the final vote than the person _taking someone else_ into the finals. As we all know, the decision at the F3 tribal council comes down to one person and one person only. You WILL piss off the person you leave behind, and that makes them much less likely to vote for you. If Brian takes out Helen tonight, at least he can spread the blame around, because it takes three votes to boot her. If he takes her out at F3 in favor of (say) Clay, there ain’t nobody to blame but Brian. That’s why Neleh lost last time around–the Gang of Four couldn’t forgive her for her “betrayal” of them, even though they were going to axe her themselves. **BiblioCat:** Why do you think Ted or Helen would vote for Brian if he has broken his (separate) promises that _they_ were going to F2 with _him_? Since when has that kind of betrayal been the way to win votes in this game? Remember Sue Hawk? She _hated_ Rich, but she gave him her vote for the million dollars because Kelly had betrayed her. Penny is also another possible Clay voter, thanks to his schmoozing of her and the vote he showed her he was casting for Jake. No way would it be 7-0 for Brian. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/16 "2002-12-12T21:24:41Z")
And in other news, Brian’s wife got arrested for misdemeanor spousal abuse last month, plus ordered to stay away from her husband. Man, this guy is some major tabloid fodder. > **[Wife Beats Up TV "Survivor"](http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/crime/wife-beats-tv-survivor)** > > 12/17 UPDATE: Charmaine Heidik agrees to attend counseling in return for dismissal of spousal abuse charge. > Despite snakes, monsoons, and food-stealing monkeys, the beach where CBS's "Survivor: Thaila ---
**Author:** ![BiblioCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@BiblioCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BiblioCat)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/17 "2002-12-12T21:45:33Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by minty green \* > \*\ ***BiblioCat:** Why do you think Ted or Helen would vote for Brian if he has broken his (separate) promises that _they_ were going to F2 with _him_? \*\* Because they like Brian, and they really hate Clay. Helen really hates Clay, and so does Jan. Even if Brian dumps them in favor of Clay for the Final 2, I think he has just enough charm that he could shmooze it to be in his favor. That Smoking Gun link…OMG, what a riot. She is a mess. :rolleyes: That’s even better than all the drunk driving convictions rolled into one! ---
**Author:** ![BiblioCat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ed8c4c/32.png) [@BiblioCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BiblioCat)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2002, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/18 "2002-12-12T21:48:59Z")
Of course, this is all wild speculation. For all we know, Brian could be voted out tonight! ---
**Author:** ![elf6c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c57346/32.png) [@elf6c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elf6c)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2002, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/19 "2002-12-13T13:35:28Z")
I guess the lack of posts come from everyone being officially stunned. :eek: Ted? Wow. I did not see that coming. I guess that’s what happens when you get caught scheming. I guess Jan refused to come along with Helen and Ted. Actually I am baffled as to what Jan is doing. Still, this was the first TC surprise in quite a while. I guess Brian really was upset he didn’t get thanksed for the truck win. I hope Ted enjoys his Trailblazer. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2002, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237/20 "2002-12-13T13:40:44Z")
Yeah, I think Ted made himself an easy target last night. He’s big and strong, he kept winning challenges, and everyone knew he was scheming. Still, it surprised the heck out of me. All the spoiler boards certainly had it right yesterday afternoon, however. Best part: Brian describing his three allies: Disposable, the loyal soldier, and the good friend. Any more questions which one he wants to take to the final vote? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-12-12/142237.md?page=2)