# Survivor 4/21 **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [April 21, 2005, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454 "2005-04-21T18:42:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/61 "2005-04-22T15:04:50Z")
> [@rockle](#): > > Maybe. Maybe not. She didn’t have a lot of faith in her alliance with Tom, Ian, and Katie, did she? That certainly didn’t help things. If the Editors are to be believed (and that’s always a Big IF), her lack of faith was well-founded. I think she would’ve been the bootee, and dodged a bullet. And if the previews are to be believed (another big IF) she is belatedly realizing that she needs to take matters into her own hands. ---
**Author:** ![rockle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/73ab20/32.png) [@rockle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rockle)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/62 "2005-04-22T15:07:37Z")
> [@Jaade](#): > > **rockle** , Steph asked Ian right before tribal counsel if the plan was still to vote off Janu. He says something like “mubble, uh…yeah, mubble”. She said “I don’t think so. I think it’s me tonight.” She asked him something else (IIRC) and he just stands there looking down at the ground. > > So yeah, he’s not an effective liar, but he did lie. The coolest part was how Steph called him out on it so blatantly. I don’t remember this. Hmm. Do we know that Steph was _definitely_ the target? I’m not saying she wasn’t, but I’m not committing to the idea that she was, either. It sounded to me like the person who really wanted to get rid of Steph was _ **Gregg** _. Maybe I am reading too much into things, but the way that Tom let Gregg speak his piece, it looked like Tom was trying to uncover Gregg’s strategy: Does Gregg trust Tom, or not? Is he going to vote with them, or not? I think Gregg made some good arguments in favor of voting Steph out, which Tom pretty much disregarded. Then again … Tom did say at TC that Steph would fit right in at 108 Truck, but that this wasn’t about work. Hmm. Now I’m not sure what to think. In any event, even if Ian _did_ lie to Stephanie (which it appears that he might have), I think that Stephanie’s strategy problems still put her at higher risk than any of the guys. Caryn, I am fairly confident, would vote as a bloc with the women. But Jenn and Katie are not to be trusted, I don’t think. Jenn seems like the type who would “accidentally” let it slip to Gregg that the girls have a voting strategy, and Katie would definitely run right back to her sugar daddies, Tom and Ian, to save her own ass. And on the way, both Jenn and Katie would finger Steph _(not like that, you pigs!)_ as the mastermind behind the plot. Not good for Steph, unless she wins immunity next time. Or, am I overthinking things? (Again, with the good view from the cheap seats.) ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/63 "2005-04-22T15:17:52Z")
When Tom was letting Gregg talk at Tribal Council, it looked to me like Tom was not happy with the choice he had made to dump his day-1 alliance with Steph, and he was having second thoughts. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/64 "2005-04-22T15:23:16Z")
**RikWriter** A plea to those of you who have read spoilers [from someone who does not read spoilers] could you please stop posting information from them? [don’t post information from said spoilers] Even when you’re using spoiler boxes your other comments leak information [even though the original comments are boxed, the comments on them give information away so box them too] Haj ---
**Author:** ![Jaade](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/dfb087/32.png) [@Jaade](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jaade)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/65 "2005-04-22T15:35:16Z")
Well, they showed Ian laying on the floor of the hut saying “I’m going to miss her” and cut to Tom who looked very unhappy. They certainly gave every indication that Steph was out; I don’t see Ian saying that he would miss Janu. Yes, I think that Gregg is the one who wanted Steph gone, but for some reason the other guys were not very stenuous in their objections. I really thought, in honor of their secret alliance, they’d say let’s vote out Janu now and we’ll take Steph out next time, giving themselves a way to get around that later. After all, they certainly shouldn’t want Steph on the jury if they screw her right now. I don’t see Steph as a liar, I think that anyone who elicited an actual promise from her could take that to the bank if she could hold up her end in any way. I don’t think that Tom and Ian could say the same of Gregg. I don’t think you are overthinking things Re: Jenn and Katie. They are sheep. Not only that, they are certainly as ridiculously gossipy as you think they are. They wouldn’t know an original strategy if Steph slapped them in the face with it. ---
**Author:** ![shijinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cc9497/32.png) [@shijinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shijinn)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/66 "2005-04-22T16:14:49Z")
> [@rockle](#): > > I don’t remember this. Hmm. Do we know that Steph was _definitely_ the target? … yes. it happened as **Jaade** said. Stephenie sensed something amiss and confronted Ian/Tom. Ian’s a terrible liar and i have no idea why Tom did not reassure her and try to break the Gregg duo which seems like the bigger threat. (fairy tale ending for Stephenie notwithstanding) she might have discovered this too late to do anything, hence her real emotion at TC for very possibly losing the place to Janu who couldn’t care less. > [@rockle](#): > > … What I don’t entirely understand is why she didn’t say anything to _Gregg_, though. Steph was told about the “traitor sub-alliance” by Coby before his ouster. … Gregg was the one who wanted Stephenie out, she might have tried and failed. > [@WIGGUM](#): > > Thanks. I was talking to my wife when both of us thought that we heard Jeff say that she wouldn’t be part of the jury. More than likely he said, “You are now the second member of the jury.” I should learn to shut up and listen. he said, " … but you wouldn’t be going home, you’ll join the jury … " **RikWriter** someone back on the first page, (i don’t want to check. i had paged down real quick when i saw the unboxed reply) replied to spoilers with some writing including survivor names, then a very visible ‘ **but** ’ followed by boxed spoilers. it really should have been all boxed up. and her name is **Steph_e_nie**! * * * props to Probst for keeping her around that bit longer. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![RikWriter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/49beb7/32.png) [@RikWriter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RikWriter)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/67 "2005-04-22T16:36:59Z")
> [@shijinn](#): > > **RikWriter** > > someone back on the first page, (i don’t want to check. i had paged down real quick when i saw the unboxed reply) replied to spoilers with some writing including survivor names, then a very visible ‘ **but** ’ followed by boxed spoilers. it really should have been all boxed up. The someone was me, but I did NOT give away a spoiler in the unboxed part, I simply said that the coming attractions at the end of the last Survivor made it look like Stephenie was targetting Tom. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/68 "2005-04-22T16:38:58Z")
It came across to me like Jeff was pulling for Steph. I think that’s why he didn’t mind Janu quitting. Plus, they deliberately tried to make this season different, spice things up a bit, and this sort of fell in their lap. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/69 "2005-04-22T16:57:54Z")
Yeah, Jeff did not push back at all when Janu said she wanted out. I would have expected him to make it very hard for her to quit. ---
**Author:** ![Draelin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ce73a5/32.png) [@Draelin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Draelin)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/70 "2005-04-22T17:06:15Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Yeah, Jeff did not push back at all when Janu said she wanted out. I would have expected him to make it very hard for her to quit. Remember all the shit he gave Osten? Janu got off light, really. I was just discussing this season with a friend, and I started to wonder–how differently do you think this season would have gone, had Jeff not hurt himself? That’s where the wheels really came off Ulong’s wagon. Jeff and Stephenie together could have made the difference. ---
**Author:** ![Jaade](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/dfb087/32.png) [@Jaade](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jaade)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/71 "2005-04-22T17:09:50Z")
Why? I don’t remember him really pushing other Survivor quitters to stay in. One had extenuating circumstances that I know made her choice the only one for her, her mother’s failing health (and didn’t Jenna get back just in time?) and Sue…Sue’s just stupid. I don’t remember him trying to get her to stay either. I don’t think I saw the other quitter. **Draelin** , I think the tribe made a huge mistake when they let Jeff be voted out. He thought he would be holding them back, when obviously they didn’t need his help with that. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/72 "2005-04-22T17:12:31Z")
> [@](#): > > The someone was me, but I did NOT give away a spoiler in the unboxed part, I simply said that the coming attractions at the end of the last Survivor made it look like Stephenie was targetting Tom. Rik, your post said: > [@](#): > > Actually they were talking about voting out Tom in the promos for next week. > > But from spoilers (spoiler box) At this point everyone reading your post knows that you’ve got information from spoiler sites about who gets voted out next week and that it isn’t going to be Tom. This is an example of what I’m talking about when I say some people are leaking information. They’re not openly declaring who won the game but they reveal their knowledge by other comments they make during general conversations. ---
**Author:** ![shijinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cc9497/32.png) [@shijinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shijinn)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/73 "2005-04-22T17:15:16Z")
> [@RikWriter](#): > > The someone was me, but I did NOT give away a spoiler in the unboxed part, I simply said that the coming attractions at the end of the last Survivor made it look like Stephenie was targetting Tom. _but_ from spoilers, that seems to be not the case. i’m only guessing here. i went back and re-read your post without reading the boxed area. it’s no big deal since the previews are somewhat predictable. still… 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Green\_Bean](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/green_bean/32/1760_2.png) [@Green\_Bean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Green_Bean)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2005, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/74 "2005-04-22T18:50:17Z")
IIRC, Stephanie asked Ian “So, are we voting out Janu?” or somesuch. Ian then said “That’s the plan,” or possibly “That was the plan.” I noticed the wording because I was trying to figure out if they were going to vote Stephenie off or not, and that was evidence that they were. Ian didn’t want to flat-out lie, so he wiggled around the direct question by fudging his enunciation and telling a lie of omission. In other words, he wanted Stephanie to hear “That is the plan,” but what he was really saying was “That was the plan,” and leaving out the second part of the sentence–“but our new plan is to vote you out instead.” I think Stephenie noticed the noncommittal nature of his answer, too. The best thing that Tom and Ian could do right now is LIE LIE LIE! Tell Stephenie that they were going to vote for Janu all along, and that all their hints that they might vote her off were to fool Gregg, who was trying to organize her ouster. If they can rebuild their alliance, they’ll have a good block of three. Then they should bring Caryn on board to get rid of Gregg. He’s too strong of a player to keep around, he’s a good strategic thinker, and he apparently controls Jenn’s vote. (They might want to leave Katie out of their planning for that round. They can always bring her back in later with some excuse.) Then they get rid of Jenn next, leaving only the TIKS alliance plus Caryn. I think Caryn will go along with any plan that doesn’t target her. She knows she’s just lucky to be in it for the next 3, 6, 9 days, as she’s an obvious bootee. And by just staying in it, she at least has the possibility of finding a strategic opening that she can exploit and/or win a crucial immunity. ---
**Author:** ![shijinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cc9497/32.png) [@shijinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shijinn)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/75 "2005-04-23T02:50:12Z")
Stephenie flat out said something like “i think you’re voting for me isn’t it?”, and neither Ian nor Tom had any good reply or reassurances. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/76 "2005-04-23T10:26:03Z")
> [@Broken Wind](#): > > I don’t think the ‘female vs. male’ ploy is going to work, as hinted at in the promos, simply because it’s still fresh in everyone’s mind how well that worked last season, and that Steph is obviously the alpha-female of the bunch, and if it came down to an all female end, she would definitely walk away victorious. (How’s that for a rambling sentence?) It worked well? Didn’t a guy win it all? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/77 "2005-04-23T11:51:04Z")
> [@Ellis Dee](#): > > It worked well? Didn’t a guy win it all? That’s what he’s saying: > [@Broken Wind](#): > > I don’t think the ‘female vs. male’ ploy is going to work ---
**Author:** ![kka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/54ee81/32.png) [@kka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kka)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/78 "2005-04-23T13:23:46Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > When Tom was letting Gregg talk at Tribal Council, it looked to me like Tom was not happy with the choice he had made to dump his day-1 alliance with Steph, and he was having second thoughts. I thought so too, but then he said something about how Steph would fit in at the firehouse, but this was Survivor. ---
**Author:** ![middleman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e9a140/32.png) [@middleman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/middleman)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/79 "2005-04-23T13:30:06Z")
There was no doubt that Tom and Ian were emotionally conflicted. The only person I have ever seen that had absolutely no moral problems dumping someone they liked and admired was Boston Rob. But the others that were successful were able to suck it up and do the “right” thing any way. I really think Tom and Ian would have voted off Steph had Janu not quit. It was the smart move (assuming they don’t know that Gregg was trying to eliminate their alliance pool.) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454/80 "2005-04-23T13:39:10Z")
If nothing else, doesn’t it seem like Tom and Ian’s plan to vote out Stephenie was poor strategy? Stephenie’s a strong competitor and from their point of view needs to go at some point. But Gregg’s also a strong competitor and he has the advantage of having Jenn as an ally. If it had reached the point that a decision had to be made to cut loose from one alliance, Machiavellian politics would have said to keep the alliance with the weaker power and use it to oust the stronger. In game terms, Tom, Ian, Stephenie, and Katie would have been strong enough to oust Gregg, Jenn, and Caryn. But if they had voted off Stephenie, Tom and Ian would have found that Gregg and Jenn were now the dominant power and they would have been the ones bringing in Caryn and Janu to vote off Tom and Ian. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-4-21/300454.md?page=5)