# Survivor -Season 42 **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Tags:** reality-or-game-show\ **Created:** [March 10, 2022, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802 "2022-03-10T06:43:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2022, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/101 "2022-05-13T19:36:16Z")
Yeah, Drea was a good player who screwed up badly once. > [@Mahaloth](#): > > **Jonathan, Mike, Omar, Lindsey** , and possibly one or two others come back. I Like those. I don;t necessarily want Jonathan to win, but I don’t want him booted too soon, either. > [@EllisDee](#): > > Is anybody else annoyed that Survivor is now 2-0 making the improper choice in the Monty Hall problem? Both people stayed instead of switching, and they both won. ( Well, maybe the game is fixed, you know. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Burden](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/958977/32.png) [@Jack\_Burden](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Burden)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/102 "2022-05-13T20:14:31Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Is anybody else annoyed that Survivor is now 2-0 making the improper choice in the Monty Hall problem? Both people stayed instead of switching, and they both won. (33% chance to win staying, 67% chance switching.) To me it illustrates the fallacy of that theory. At first choice, each option is a 33% chance to be correct. After one incorrect choice is removed, each choice has a 50% chance to be correct. So staying vs switching does not increase or decrease the odds of winning. It’s 50/50, not 33/67. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2022, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/103 "2022-05-13T20:26:14Z")
> [@Jack\_Burden](#): > > To me it illustrates the fallacy of that theory. At first choice, each option is a 33% chance to be correct. After one incorrect choice is removed, each choice has a 50% chance to be correct. So staying vs switching does not increase or decrease the odds of winning. It’s 50/50, not 33/67. Oh no. ---
**Author:** ![Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eyebrows_0f_doom/32/3119_2.png) [@Eyebrows\_0f\_Doom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eyebrows_0f_Doom)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2022, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/104 "2022-05-13T20:31:10Z")
> [@Jack\_Burden](#): > > > [@EllisDee](#): > > > > Is anybody else annoyed that Survivor is now 2-0 making the improper choice in the Monty Hall problem? Both people stayed instead of switching, and they both won. (33% chance to win staying, 67% chance switching.) > > To me it illustrates the fallacy of that theory. At first choice, each option is a 33% chance to be correct. After one incorrect choice is removed, each choice has a 50% chance to be correct. So staying vs switching does not increase or decrease the odds of winning. It’s 50/50, not 33/67. Nope. ---
**Author:** ![Dag\_Otto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/439d5e/32.png) [@Dag\_Otto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dag_Otto)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2022, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/105 "2022-05-13T20:33:15Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Oh no. Yeah, let’s just note that with only two trials in Survivor so far, the outcome isn’t completely unexpected. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2022, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/106 "2022-05-13T22:16:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Well, maybe the game is fixed, you know. Unless it’s blatant manipulation, Jeff reveals all three at the end showing that it’s not fixed. > [@Jack\_Burden](#): > > To me it illustrates the fallacy of that theory. This isn’t the thread for it, but you are absolutely wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Wheelz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wheelz/32/5718_2.png) [@Wheelz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wheelz)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2022, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/107 "2022-05-14T05:39:24Z")
Remember the scene in _Goodfellas_ where Joe Pesci thinks he’s going to be made, then realizes at the last second that he’s about to get whacked instead? That was Drea as soon as Mike said “No.” I didn’t like Drea at first; don’t even remember why. She won me over. Smart, strong player, and seems like a good person as well. She went out with a great attitude. She knew the mistake she had made and owned it, and showed respect for her competitors. I know I said last week there were no goats, but it’s clear that all the other players consider Romeo one, so I’m expecting him to get dragged to the end. Maryanne is still a long-shot, but she appears well-liked and respected, and she may have a big move or two left in her. I’m not counting her out. > [@EllisDee](#): > > Is anybody else annoyed that Survivor is now 2-0 making the improper choice in the Monty Hall problem? Not everyone is as familiar with the Mony Hall problem as we Dopers are (and clearly, even some Dopers don’t fully get it). I’m more annoyed that Jeff doesn’t tell the players any more than there will be a “game of chance” with no mention of the odds. 1/2? 1/6? 1/100? They can’t make an informed decision about sitting out the challenge. ---
**Author:** ![Lare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/53a042/32.png) [@Lare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lare)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2022, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/108 "2022-05-14T20:44:48Z")
Regarding Drea’s exit, had she picked one of the skull symbols, would Jeff have said “the tribe has spoken” even though the tribe had literally almost nothing whatsoever to do with her leaving the game? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2022, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/109 "2022-05-14T22:02:19Z")
> [@Wheelz](#): > > don’t fully get it). > I’m more annoyed that Jeff doesn’t tell the players any more than there will be a “game of chance” with no mention of the odds. 1/2? 1/6? 1/100? They can’t make an informed decision about sitting out the challenge. Editing, Jeff likely explains more, and explains the rules better. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2022, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/110 "2022-05-14T22:08:27Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Editing, Jeff likely explains more, and explains the rules better. I’m pretty sure at the immunity challenge he just says it’s a game of chance and nothing more. I remember last season Deshawn talking about how he has no idea what his odds were going into tribal. ---
**Author:** ![Lare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/53a042/32.png) [@Lare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lare)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2022, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/111 "2022-05-14T23:05:04Z")
> [@Lare](#): > > “…Drea’s exit…” Sorry. Meant to refer to the possibility of Lindsay leaving as she did the game of chance, not Drea. ---
**Author:** ![Noelq](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/noelq/32/16438_2.png) [@Noelq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noelq)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2022, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/112 "2022-05-19T18:01:24Z")
Wow. They totally got me with this one. I was yelling at Johnathan to use his shot-in-the-dark, and when he didn’t, I was sure he was gone. What an excellent vote! I think advantage-geddon happens next week. ---
**Author:** ![Wheelz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wheelz/32/5718_2.png) [@Wheelz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wheelz)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2022, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/113 "2022-05-19T19:31:40Z")
Maryanne’s stock just went _way_ up. She didn’t even need to let Jonathan and Mike in on her plan (though I get why she did). When they couldn’t get through their thick skulls why it was a good idea, she was all, “fine, I’ll do it without you.” And she did! Brilliant and ballsy play. Romeo has pretty much cemented his goat status, but in any combination of the other four, I don’t see an obvious winner _or_ loser in the bunch. Looking forward to a fun and unpredictable finale! ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/114 "2022-05-20T02:12:48Z")
I don’t see any way Jonathan wins, short of Romeo spontaneously cloning into two people to sit next to him at final 3. Lindsey’s tunnel vision targeting Jonathan will be her undoing. She wins easily against Jonathan and Romeo in a final 3. Against Maryanne or Mike, who knows? Right now I rank them Maryanne slightly edging Lindsey, who is a little ahead of Mike, then big dropoff to Jonathan, then even bigger dropoff to Romeo. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/115 "2022-05-20T14:45:02Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > She wins easily against Jonathan and Romeo in a final 3. I’m starting to feel like Lindsey is getting the Xander edit. She has an air of “yeah she should win” but when you think about it, what has she actually done that puts her in a position to win? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/116 "2022-05-20T14:57:37Z")
Very fun episode. This group knows how to play. Even Romeo realized that his only (very small) chance is to keep Jonathan around (and I guess hope for a final 2 or a really bitter jury). And how refreshing is it to have such positive comments from those voted out. Clearly it sucks for Omar to get blindsided like that, but he is just so upbeat about the whole experience. So much more enjoyable than the bitterness typical from bootees. > [@EllisDee](#): > > Right now I rank them Maryanne slightly edging Lindsey, who is a little ahead of Mike, then big dropoff to Jonathan, then even bigger dropoff to Romeo. I think I would have Mike first, then Maryanne, followed by Lindsey/Jonathon but I guess it depends on how much credit Maryanne gets for the Omar boot and how she plays the next few rounds. I don’t understand why Lindsey didn’t play her idol here. If she truly thinks that keeping Omar is the best thing for her (which I’m not sure I agree with, but she seems to) then why not play a dead idol? I know she talked about being afraid of someone finding it again but I don’t think that is likely at Final 5 - have they typically re-hid idols at that stage? Maybe she doesn’t really care if Omar goes, as long as her hand isn’t in it - but Omar seems like the kind of person to vote for the person who beat him, not the person that failed to save him. Final point: I totally understand why Mike and Jonathon didn’t want to do the “everybody votes for Omar” plan. It’s very easy to risk an idol play when it isn’t your ass on the line. But Mike really wanted to save his idol and Jonathon knew he was getting votes. And, as we saw, if Maryanne really has Romeo on board then you don’t actually need Mike and Jonathan’s votes. A 3/2/2 split is much better for Mike and (especially) Jonathon than 5/2 and where Lindsey could save Omar. They made it seem like they were being dumb, but I think it was probably the best play for them. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/117 "2022-05-20T15:12:02Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > A 3/2/2 split is much better for Mike and (especially) Jonathon than 5/2 and where Lindsey could save Omar. They made it seem like they were being dumb, but I think it was probably the best play for them. Eh, it was still a big risk for them. Let’s say Lindsey plays her idol. Then it’s a split vote for Romeo and Johnathan. On a revote, Lindsey and Omar vote Johnathan, Mike votes Romeo. It would come down to Maryanne (and on a revote she gets to use her extra vote again). Johnathan probably goes home. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/118 "2022-05-20T15:31:48Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > It would come down to Maryanne (and on a revote she gets to use her extra vote again). Johnathan probably goes home. Yeah, that’s true. But it’s certainly not any _worse_ than just doing Maryanne’s plan. I guess the real downside is in not being seen by the jury as being involved in the blindside (basically Maryanne got all of the credit). So perhaps if it’s a wash risk-wise it’s worth going along with the plan just to get the credit for making a move. ---
**Author:** ![Rebo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rebo/32/13005_2.png) [@Rebo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rebo)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/119 "2022-05-20T17:53:02Z")
Stupid nitpick that’s driving me crazy: It’s **Jonathan** Young. ---
**Author:** ![Noelq](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/noelq/32/16438_2.png) [@Noelq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Noelq)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2022, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802/120 "2022-05-20T19:29:36Z")
> [@Rebo](#): > > Stupid nitpick that’s driving me crazy: > > It’s **Jonathan** Young. Sorri. Mi apologees. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-season-42/960802.md?page=7)