# Survivor: South Pacific November 2 2011 **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [November 3, 2011, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693 "2011-11-03T00:13:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ekweizn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7c8e57/32.png) [@ekweizn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekweizn)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/41 "2011-11-04T17:25:26Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > One person can’t pull off the strategy I am espousing. It takes a pair. That way, each time the pair swings from one group to the other they will make that group the majority. > > And it doesn’t take a lot of promises, either. Just go to the minority group and say quietly “If you all vote for Coach this time, I can get you two votes, and you will all stick around for another three days.” > > A group that is facing a Pagonging will seize this chance. You haven’t made them any big promises, and you can swing back to the other side the following week. The other two “main” alliances would just vote them out directly. If the two main alliances can combine to vote them out the next two TC’s, then they’re automatically safe for 6 days! ---
**Author:** ![Roadfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/9fc348/32.png) [@Roadfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roadfood)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/42 "2011-11-04T17:32:47Z")
Am I the only one who thinks that what Cochran should have done is as follows: He had told Coach exactly what Ozzie was going to do with the idol, right? So Coach “knew” that Whitney was going to get the idol. Cochran seemed pretty convincing at that, and indeed the way things went at tribal made it clear that Coach totally believed that. So what Cochran should have done was to then go to Ozzie and tell him that he’d told Coach about the plan to give the idol to Whitney. After Ozzie had his meltdown, Cochran calmly tells him that this is part of Cochran’s master plan. Now that Coach seemingly believes it, Ozzie will instead give the idol to Keith. Think about it. The plan to give the idol to Whitney was a gamble, at best. So using what Cochran told Coach to instead give the idol to Keith is still a gamble, but at least there’s some good reason to believe that it will pay off. Sure, there’s always the chance that Coach doesn’t believe Cochran or for some other reason doesn’t go for what Cochran told him. But it seems better to bet on Coach believing Cochran than to bet on the shot in the dark that they did go with. And if it worked out (as it apparently would have), Cochran would be the hero of the day. I actually thought that that was what he was planning, when he told Coach that Ozzie was going to give the idol to Whitney. But then, nothing. Wimp. ---
**Author:** ![ekweizn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7c8e57/32.png) [@ekweizn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekweizn)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/43 "2011-11-04T17:35:31Z")
> [@Spoke](#): > > It has never been tried. I look for it every season and it never happens. Another example was Survivor: Amazon–Rob Cesternino and Matthew jumped repeatedly together between sides. I argue that it worked in part because that season was a final 2–and Matthew lost to Jenna M in the finale anyway. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/44 "2011-11-04T17:36:52Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Didn’t someone try that all the way back in season one, peculiarly staking out an _I’m Going To Vote In Alphabetical Order_ position to look like a predictable quantity in the middle rather than a wild card? Yes. That happened in Season One. But Pagonging (The Original) still happened because the tribes were divided alphabetically\*. The people who came alphabetically first just also _happened_ to be people on the other tribe. - I think there was one anomaly pair to create M-F balance. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/45 "2011-11-04T17:47:28Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Didn’t someone try that all the way back in season one, peculiarly staking out an _I’m Going To Vote In Alphabetical Order_ position to look like a predictable quantity in the middle rather than a wild card? That was Doctor Sean, but everybody knew that his “alphabetical order” was just silly B.S. because everybody on his original tribe had names that came later in the alphabet than everybody on the other original tribe. So he was really just voting on tribal lines and he participated in the “Pagonging” just as much as Kelly, Richard, Rudy, and Susan. ---
**Author:** ![ekweizn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7c8e57/32.png) [@ekweizn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekweizn)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2011, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/46 "2011-11-04T18:08:00Z")
> [@Roadfood](#): > > Am I the only one who thinks that what Cochran should have done is as follows: He had told Coach exactly what Ozzie was going to do with the idol, right? So Coach “knew” that Whitney was going to get the idol. Cochran seemed pretty convincing at that, and indeed the way things went at tribal made it clear that Coach totally believed that. > > So what Cochran should have done was to then go to Ozzie and tell him that he’d told Coach about the plan to give the idol to Whitney. After Ozzie had his meltdown, Cochran calmly tells him that this is part of Cochran’s master plan. Now that Coach seemingly believes it, Ozzie will instead give the idol to Keith. > > Think about it. The plan to give the idol to Whitney was a gamble, at best. So using what Cochran told Coach to instead give the idol to Keith is still a gamble, but at least there’s some good reason to believe that it will pay off. Sure, there’s always the chance that Coach doesn’t believe Cochran or for some other reason doesn’t go for what Cochran told him. But it seems better to bet on Coach believing Cochran than to bet on the shot in the dark that they did go with. > > And if it worked out (as it apparently would have), Cochran would be the hero of the day. > > I actually thought that that was what he was planning, when he told Coach that Ozzie was going to give the idol to Whitney. But then, nothing. Wimp. Given the “idol-played-on-Whitney” information, both Keith and Jim were logical candidates for Upolu to vote for. Remember Upolu didn’t tell Cochran whom they were voting for. Looking at it from Cochran’s point of view, if he goes back to Savaii saying that he spilled the beans about Whitney and that they should give the idol to Keith or Jim, there’s a 50% chance that Savaii gives the right person the idol and Rick gets eliminated (in which case Cochran looks like a liar to the remaining Upolu and will not be able to get out of the bottom of the Savaii alliance) and a 50% chance that he has to flip to Upolu anyway (because he refuses to draw rocks). It’s clear to me that Cochran made the right move by not spilling the beans to Savaii. ---
**Author:** ![magnusblitz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b4bc9f/32.png) [@magnusblitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magnusblitz)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2011, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/47 "2011-11-05T19:53:00Z")
I’m impressed with Coach, not only because he completely played Cochran, but also because he did it without talk of using his team’s idol even coming up. (Or maybe it did come up, but either way, they didn’t waste it). ---
**Author:** ![sohvan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/96bed5/32.png) [@sohvan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sohvan)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2011, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/48 "2011-11-05T20:36:30Z")
> [@Roadfood](#): > > So what Cochran should have done was to then go to Ozzie and tell him that he’d told Coach about the plan to give the idol to Whitney. After Ozzie had his meltdown, Cochran calmly tells him that this is part of Cochran’s master plan. Now that Coach seemingly believes it, Ozzie will instead give the idol to Keith. It would have been even better for Cochrane to keep the idol. There’s no reason to give it back to Ozzy if you’re going to flip to the other side anyway. The other tribe will be pissed at you just for being a traitor, so keeping the idol isn’t going to make it much worse. Going to the other tribe wasn’t necessarily a bad plan, but he definitely needed to keep the idol himself. ---
**Author:** ![ekweizn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7c8e57/32.png) [@ekweizn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekweizn)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2011, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/49 "2011-11-05T22:07:04Z")
> [@sohvan](#): > > It would have been even better for Cochrane to keep the idol. There’s no reason to give it back to Ozzy if you’re going to flip to the other side anyway. The other tribe will be pissed at you just for being a traitor, so keeping the idol isn’t going to make it much worse. Going to the other tribe wasn’t necessarily a bad plan, but he definitely needed to keep the idol himself. Cochran still has a chance of getting Savaii votes at a hypothetical final tribal council. Taking Ozzy’s idol would give him no chance of that, I would think. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2011, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/50 "2011-11-05T23:10:02Z")
What Cochrane needed to do was spill the beans to Coach and then publicly say to his new friends that it was Keith getting the votes and put it on them to protect Keith with the idol. He should also have made it very clear that he was not switching votes at that TC no matter what and if it goes to rocks then so be it. But! (Cochrane reminds them) When Keith gets 6 votes, then they will know Cochrane was telling the truth. And don’t tell Dawn directly. Tell Coach that Dawn could be flipped and to have Sophie talk to her. Casually mention to Jim (not Ozzy) that you saw Dawn and Sophie talking but don’t say anything more. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/51 "2011-11-07T02:47:52Z")
> [@phungi](#): > > If nothing else, Cochran has established himself as the poster-boy for the word “nebbish.” I’ve been calling him Woody Allen. Great episode, finally. Ozzie is way too overconfident. He needs to play his cards close to his vest. Now his team is down a player and lacking the II. They are just going to get picked off 1 at a time, and the RI zombie won’t matter, unless he can II himself to the end. ---
**Author:** ![PunditLisa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/4af34b/32.png) [@PunditLisa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PunditLisa)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/52 "2011-11-07T10:57:05Z")
Now that Ozzie played his HII, will they put another one in the game? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/53 "2011-11-07T17:57:53Z")
> [@PunditLisa](#): > > Now that Ozzie played his HII, will they put another one in the game? I have no doubt that Probst will find a way to put one directly in Ozzie’s pocket if it’s at all possible. ---
**Author:** ![ekweizn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7c8e57/32.png) [@ekweizn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekweizn)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/54 "2011-11-07T18:21:35Z")
> [@PunditLisa](#): > > Now that Ozzie played his HII, will they put another one in the game? Last season, Ralph played a hidden immunity idol post-merge and it was not found again (presumably not re-hidden). ---
**Author:** ![WorkInProgress](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@WorkInProgress](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WorkInProgress)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/55 "2011-11-07T20:14:42Z")
My wife asked me what I would have done in Cochran’s situation. The only answer I could think of is “not be Cochran”. Sometimes, you make so many mistakes that you can’t recover. It’s like asking your martial arts instructor what to do if a bully has you on the ground in a choke hold and his friends are covering your with guns. Kiss your butt goodbye. How is he still in the game? If he goes on to win, it will not be because of skill. ---
**Author:** ![Pashnish\_Ewing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8797f3/32.png) [@Pashnish\_Ewing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pashnish_Ewing)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/56 "2011-11-07T20:32:00Z")
> [@WorkInProgress](#): > > How is he still in the game? If he goes on to win, it will not be because of skill. Of course not. But now that we are past the merge his weakness becomes a strenth. No one fears he will win an immunity challenge. And if he keeps losing jury votes he will get kept in the game because others will want to face him in the final 3. I liked Cochran’s move. A lot can happen between now and the time it gets down to six. I don’t think Coach can pull a Rob and keep his six together. The best move for coach would be to vote out Dawn next, and/or anyone else he thinks is sympathetic towards Cochran. Keep him on an island (heh) and it will be easier to vote him out when its just down to Cochran and the Coach6. ---
**Author:** ![ekweizn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7c8e57/32.png) [@ekweizn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ekweizn)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693/57 "2011-11-07T20:33:00Z")
> [@WorkInProgress](#): > > My wife asked me what I would have done in Cochran’s situation. The only answer I could think of is “not be Cochran”. Sometimes, you make so many mistakes that you can’t recover. It’s like asking your martial arts instructor what to do if a bully has you on the ground in a choke hold and his friends are covering your with guns. Kiss your butt goodbye. > > How is he still in the game? If he goes on to win, it will not be because of skill. As bad as Cochran is at the premerge game, the postmerge game is an entirely different. He’s making the last episode for sure. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/survivor-south-pacific-november-2-2011/601693.md?page=2)