Suspected of cheating/too lucky at a Vegas casino : does the movie cliche every happen?

[kayaker]

@adaher

Think of it like sports betting. In any sports bet, about half the bettors win and the other half lose. So let’s say you as a bookie take 100 bets. The winners and losers are even, yet you make money off of the vig(the extra fee charged for losing bets on point spread wagers). If one guy wins all 100 bets, it makes no difference at all to you.

But, if you win a huge long shot bet and your nephew plays on the team that gets upset after he has the worst game of his life . . .

[silenus]

@Velocity

Wouldn’t this attention from the casino seem creepy? It would mean, “You’re different, and we’re watching you closely.” Seems to me it ought to be an immediate red flag to the gambler.

It’s not creepy, it’s flattering. Everybody, almost, likes people paying attention to them and fawning over them when they are successful. The attention isn’t “We’re watching you” so much as it’s “Congratulations. You are a winner. We LIKE you!”

[Velocity]

@silenus

It’s not creepy, it’s flattering. Everybody, almost, likes people paying attention to them and fawning over them when they are successful. The attention isn’t “We’re watching you” so much as it’s “Congratulations. You are a winner. We LIKE you!”

Wouldn’t it also mean, “We’re watching you extra closely to see if your string of success is due to cheating?”

[Toy_varen]

@pulykamell

My question here is was a “backoff” really even necessary here? The guy was down in the game when the backoff occurred. His betting strategy obviously revealed counting, but it wasn’t really working for him. (Yes, I understand it’s a long slog and there’s going to be high variance using counting and to end up ahead, you need to do it for quite awhile.) But assuming they’re using 6- or 8-shoe deck that is not played too deeply, how much of an advantage does counting give you over the house?

I don’t usually play blackjack, but the counting strategy I learned was supposed to be like a 98% return or so, my friend said 100% in the system he learned.

@Velocity

Wouldn’t this attention from the casino seem creepy? It would mean, “You’re different, and we’re watching you closely.” Seems to me it ought to be an immediate red flag to the gambler.

Nope, in all the cases I’ve seen, they’re so giddy during the winning streak that they feel like it’s totally natural for the casino to keep giving them stuff. Conversely, I get kinda mad if I’m nearby because if I’m losing, I should be getting more stuff than the guy whose winning.

[Toy_varen]

Oh, iirc, I did talk to a dealer about blackjack counting, and they said vegas casinos don’t really care anymore. Now all they do is raise the min or lower the max.

[LSLGuy]

@Velocity

Wouldn’t it also mean, “We’re watching you extra closely to see if your string of success is due to cheating?”

If I was cheating that *might *make me think they were catching on to me. If I wasn’t, it’d probably never cross my mind. But …

Every moment of everything anyone does in a casino hall is recorded from multiple angles. Does that creep you out? Does that make you think you’re at risk for a cheating accusation or a beating?

Being comped is more flattering than glancing up and seeing lots of eyes in the sky.
If I am a cheater I’d also have a pretty good idea of what’s casino-typical. Winning enough without being comped would be the bigger clue they’re getting concerned about me.

When you’re actively paying attention and everything around you is normal, relax. When you’re actively paying attention and anything is abnormal; perk up. When you’re not actively paying attention, you deserve the ambush you’re about to receive. Words to live by, every day all the time.

[GusNSpot]

Why is that number, needle position different today?

[LSLGuy]

nm

[nightshadea]

the other thing a lot of people don’t realize and the movies get wrong is those "eye in the sky "cams aren’t run by the casino staff there watched an employee/s from the Nevada gaming commission who decides if your cheating or not

in the early 00s discovery channel used to have whole weekends of programming about casino gambling they followed one around for a few days and the crap people tried to get away with funny thing is most of it was people working scams with the casino staff dealers ect

as he put it "im here to make sure you don’t cheat them and they don’t cheat you "

[friedo]

@nightshadea

the other thing a lot of people don’t realize and the movies get wrong is those "eye in the sky "cams aren’t run by the casino staff there watched an employee/s from the Nevada gaming commission who decides if your cheating or not

I don’t know where you get that idea. The Nevada Gaming Commission staff is small and they’re certainly not sitting around casino security rooms watching the cameras. That’s what casino security does. When cheaters are caught, it’s handled by the police, because it’s a crime. The gaming commission is involved with enforcing regulations and licensing staff and management. The only reason a gaming commission official might be in a security room is if they’re conducting an investigation into a licensee, such as a dealer or floor manager suspected of collusion.

[iamthewalrus_3]

@silenus

Craps also needs to be included, if you play at a place that allows 3, 4, 5 X odds. Taking the odds can reduce the house edge to almost zero.

It reduces the edge, but only by betting more money at true odds. Your average money lost per time (and of course the casino’s average income from you per time) is unchanged. All you’ve done is increased your variance.