# Sweden do-nothing approach good, US/UK/other countries' early do-nothing approach bad. Why?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone
**Tags:** covid-quarantine
**Created:** [April 3, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962 "2020-04-03T14:44:16Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 16
### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/301 "2020-05-29T16:54:13Z")
> [@Grim Render](#):
>
> I am starting to think that regardless of how good Swedens strategy is or isn’t, their tactics are a failure.
I’d certainly sign on to a statement that the execution of their plan was very poor in one critical battle ground - nursing homes. Despite that though they so far have not lost the war. They are doing much more poorly in the war than they would have if they had not fought that specific battle with such bad tactics. But they are still on target for their strategic objective: keep rates from reaching points that overwhelm healthcare capacity.
> [@Trom](#):
>
> … I’d guess it will be weeks, months, or more likely years before we can conclusively say what the appropriate response was.
I suspect - no I’'ll go stronger - I predict, 🙂 that “years” is the right time frame … if ever, as it seems most likely to me that there is no single appropriate response. Likely many different factors impact what happens in any particular country, including random chance. Given that all are of unknown strength of impact controlling for the multitude of variables will be very difficult.
Judging different nations or regions as successes or failures now is of course very very very very premature.
The Swedish approach has those 20 to 64 with [antibody evidence of past infection](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/) 2.5 times as frequently as those 65+, and with antibody levels overall that reflected roughly 7% of Stockholm having been infected by mid-April. “New confirmed infections” is a squirrelly figure but still using that one would expect that by now, six weeks later, that number has tripled (which of course won’t be confirmed until antibody results are collected two weeks from now -reflecting those infected as of today -and released likely two weeks after that.)
_If_ the basis of their strategy is correct, then they have still succeeded in having a smaller fraction of their higher risk population become infected to date, and are at less risk of as huge of a surge in the Fall and Winter timed with influenza demands on the system than are countries that have had very few cases to date. The basis of their strategy is the perhaps pessimistic position that some X percent of their population will get infected in any case and that what can be controlled is the when (better spread over spring and summer than in fall and winter when influenza is making demands on the systems too), and the who (better lower risk 20 to 64 year olds than more in higher risk 65 and overs) and never had their systems overwhelmed. The antibody numbers show they have not actually completely failed in the second part - but I’d still give them a D - and whether or not they succeed in the first will only be able to said by sometime early next year. Is a country that hits the fall season with possibly 30 to 40% already having antibodies as likely to have as big of a surge as one with hardly any immune?
The optimistic view is that rates can be driven down and kept down throughout the fall and winter with extensive testing contact tracing and reimposition of shut downs as needed going forward until and if a vaccine saves the day. Maybe that view is the correct one and will not cause more harms than goods. Could be.
I don’t know and as sure as some who post here are that they do, no one else does either.
Meanwhile I am very happy that Denmark has opened up schools and is continuing to drop in new cases.
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/302 "2020-05-29T17:11:42Z")
I am a little baffled how people think contact tracing is going to do much with this disease. It sure seems quite contagious and asymptomatic people can spread it. Unless you are in a community with very few cases, it’s going to get wildly hopeless real fast. The two “success stories”, South Korea and New Zealand, mainly worked because they had so little/no community spread when they jumped on it.
I also doubt many people will have a stomach for reimposed shutdowns in 3 months.
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### Author:  [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/303 "2020-05-29T17:35:21Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> I am a little baffled how people think contact tracing is going to do much with this disease. It sure seems quite contagious and asymptomatic people can spread it. Unless you are in a community with very few cases, it’s going to get wildly hopeless real fast. The two “success stories”, South Korea and New Zealand, mainly worked because they had so little/no community spread when they jumped on it.
>
> I also doubt many people will have a stomach for reimposed shutdowns in 3 months.
I agree with you, it seems completely futile once infections have become so widespread. I believe it has more to do with making those in charge look like they are taking action than it does with actually fixing anything.
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/304 "2020-05-29T17:44:45Z")
I don’t think you need to be quite so cynical. Contact tracing is an important and standard tool in fighting epidemics. This is just at a different magnitude. The problem, like a lot of the “smart” plans, is that they “solve” the problem with untried technology. Like phone apps that let you know you’re within 6’ from a possibly infected person. Don’t worry that phones can’t measure distance that precisely. Don’t worry about the computing power required to track all the movements of a significant amount of the population. Don’t worry that the context of the encounter is usually more important than the distance.
But contact tracing still has information value and can still give early warnings for flare ups.
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### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/305 "2020-05-29T18:12:17Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> I am a little baffled how people think contact tracing is going to do much with this disease. It sure seems quite contagious and asymptomatic people can spread it. Unless you are in a community with very few cases, it’s going to get wildly hopeless real fast. The two “success stories”, South Korea and New Zealand, mainly worked because they had so little/no community spread when they jumped on it.
>
> I also doubt many people will have a stomach for reimposed shutdowns in 3 months.
The key is that contact tracing can’t be half-assed: either the community as a whole buys in and does it, or they don’t, and the contagion spreads and we wait for a few million deaths, along with millions more permanently health-compromised, removed from the workforce, and sucking up federal disability funds until herd immunity kicks in.
Worst case public health and economic outcomes aren’t really inevitable, but the fatalistic lack of faith in public institutions to do their jobs - failure to do what we expected they could and would do - may in fact make such outcomes likely nevertheless.
---
### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/306 "2020-05-29T18:14:28Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#):
>
> I agree with you, it seems completely futile once infections have become so widespread. I believe it has more to do with making those in charge look like they are taking action than it does with actually fixing anything.
We’re talking about maybe 1-5% of the population in most places that has the disease. Most people don’t have it, so it’s beyond ridiculous and maddening to see that we’re making blanket assumptions that suggest there’s nothing we can do to protect the 95-99% of people who probably have never come into contact with COVID-19.
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### Author:  [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/307 "2020-05-29T18:59:51Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> We’re talking about maybe 1-5% of the population in most places that has the disease. Most people don’t have it, so it’s beyond ridiculous and maddening to see that we’re making blanket assumptions that suggest there’s nothing we can do to protect the 95-99% of people who probably have never come into contact with COVID-19.
1% is 3,000,000 people. Not an easy task to do contact tracing effectively on that many people. Less than 10% of the population really needs protection from this virus.
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/308 "2020-05-29T19:23:03Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> The key is that contact tracing can’t be half-assed: either the community as a whole buys in and does it, or they don’t, and the contagion spreads and we wait for a few million deaths, along with millions more permanently health-compromised, removed from the workforce, and sucking up federal disability funds until herd immunity kicks in.
>
> Worst case public health and economic outcomes aren’t really inevitable, but the fatalistic lack of faith in public institutions to do their jobs - failure to do what we expected they could and would do - may in fact make such outcomes likely nevertheless.
You aren’t getting it. Community buy is important in any public health crisis like this and will undoubtedly be a problem in the US if it includes downloading a tracking app. But the problems are beyond that. Only 1% of the population infected you guess? How many people did they spend time with in the last 2 weeks? How many people did those people come into contact with? Also, you can’t just track infected people - how do you know if they came into contact with a healthy person if you aren’t tracking him in some way as well?
And, it’s a straight up fact that phones can’t precisely measure 6’ between phones. I’m telling you it’s not feasible not that I don’t trust the government to do right.
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### Author:  [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/309 "2020-05-29T19:24:43Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> The key is that contact tracing can’t be half-assed: either the community as a whole buys in and does it, or they don’t, and the contagion spreads and we wait for a few million deaths, along with millions more permanently health-compromised, removed from the workforce, and sucking up federal disability funds until herd immunity kicks in.
>
> Worst case public health and economic outcomes aren’t really inevitable, but the fatalistic lack of faith in public institutions to do their jobs - failure to do what we expected they could and would do - may in fact make such outcomes likely nevertheless.
I’m aware some people have suffered permanent lung and organ damage after “recovering” from COVID-19, but I was not aware that the number was hundreds of thousands or millions of people. Where are you seeing this figure? Is someone tracking “permanent disability” found in recovered cases? Honestly, given this has only been around a few months, making claims about this either way seems premature.
---
### Author:  [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/310 "2020-05-29T21:54:45Z")
> [@Trom](#):
>
> I’m aware some people have suffered permanent lung and organ damage after “recovering” from COVID-19, but I was not aware that the number was hundreds of thousands or millions of people. Where are you seeing this figure? Is someone tracking “permanent disability” found in recovered cases? Honestly, given this has only been around a few months, making claims about this either way seems premature.
Yes, it’s way too early to have permanent disability figures yet, but the early numbers are not encouraging.
For example,[a Dutch lung specialist](https://nltimes.nl/2020/05/28/thousands-dutch-covid-19-patients-likely-permanent-lung-damage-doctor-says):
> [@](#):
>
> Of the 1,200 Covid-19 patients who so far recovered after admission to intensive care, “almost 100 percent went home with residual damage”, he said to AD. And about half of the 6 thousand people who were hospitalized, but did not need intensive care, will have symptoms for years to come.
A [British kidney specialist](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52506669):
> [@](#):
>
> She said: “We are seeing that patients are suffering from moderate to severe acute kidney injury in about 20-30% of patients and 30% of patients who are admitted to intensive care for Covid infection are requiring dialysis so the numbers are much bigger than we envisaged based on the data coming out of China.”
or [a small study](https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200513/complications-on-the-road-to-recovery-after-covid):
> [@](#):
>
> Another small study found that 50% of people who didn’t have symptoms had abnormal findings on imaging tests showing damage in the lungs, even without lung symptoms.
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### Author:  [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/311 "2020-05-29T21:57:35Z")
> [@Trom](#):
>
> [Coronovirus Government Response Tracker from the University of Oxford](https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker)
>
> Methodology [here](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/index_methodology.md).
>
> And here’s a [working paper](https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-05/BSG-WP-2020-032-v6.0.pdf) (pdf) discussing the findings so far. The only thing they really show is that governments adopted stricter policies as death counts rose. It’s nice to have it shown in data, I guess, but doesn’t look at the effectiveness of individual measures with respect to fighting COVID-19. Hopefully other researchers will use this data in conjunction with infection/death statistics and be able to tease out the effects of various policies. I’d guess it will be weeks, months, or more likely years before we can conclusively say what the appropriate response was.
Thanks **Trom**. Not quite what I was after but useful and interesting nonetheless. And I think you’re right, that it will be some considerable time before the deeper maths are done, which will unfortunately also mean that the lessons of what we went through won’t be socialised in the same way, so we can all go through the ‘Is social distancing REALLY going to make a difference?’ discussion again next time.
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### Author:  [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/312 "2020-05-29T22:03:38Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> We’re talking about maybe 1-5% of the population in most places that has the disease. Most people don’t have it, so it’s beyond ridiculous and maddening to see that we’re making blanket assumptions that suggest there’s nothing we can do to protect the 95-99% of people who probably have never come into contact with COVID-19.
Cosigned. The infection rate for those living in the same household is only on the order of 20%. Yet people are fatalistic about that too.
Also, the population of people that are infectious turns over rapidly. We don’t really care about someone from 2 months ago. If we started today, massive progress could be made in a short time.
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/313 "2020-05-29T22:18:15Z")
> [@Banksiaman](#):
>
> Thanks **Trom**. Not quite what I was after but useful and interesting nonetheless. And I think you’re right, that it will be some considerable time before the deeper maths are done, which will unfortunately also mean that the lessons of what we went through won’t be socialised in the same way, so we can all go through the ‘Is social distancing REALLY going to make a difference?’ discussion again next time.
The lessons we’ve learned shouldn’t be internalized because a) they haven’t been proven yet and b) the next pandemic may be of a very different nature.
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [May 29, 2020, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/314 "2020-05-29T22:22:37Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#):
>
> Also, the population of people that are infectious turns over rapidly. We don’t really care about someone from 2 months ago. If we started today, massive progress could be made in a short time.
No, it couldn’t. The US is on a bit of a downslope but still had 23,000 new cases yesterday. Imagine the manpower needed to call everyone those 23,000 people interacted with in the past two weeks. That’s one day.
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### Author:  [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)
#### Post date: [May 30, 2020, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/315 "2020-05-30T00:02:11Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> No, it couldn’t. The US is on a bit of a downslope but still had 23,000 new cases yesterday. Imagine the manpower needed to call everyone those 23,000 people interacted with in the past two weeks. That’s one day.
You, personally, could look on a list of 23,000. Then you would know if you contacted any of those people.
Or you can continue to shoot down ideas because they aren’t perfect.
A list of 23,000 is better than not having the list at all. Make your choice.
---
### Author:  [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)
#### Post date: [May 30, 2020, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/316 "2020-05-30T00:10:44Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#):
>
> You, personally, could look on a list of 23,000. Then you would know if you contacted any of those people.
>
> Or you can continue to shoot down ideas because they aren’t perfect.
>
> A list of 23,000 is better than not having the list at all. Make your choice.
When things open up it won’t take long for the list to grow much larger. Waste of resources
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [May 30, 2020, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/317 "2020-05-30T00:21:07Z")
I could personally “look” on a list of 23,000? What is that supposed to mean? Are you suggesting I should make contact tracing my job, rather than pooh pooh ideas?
I’m talking reality. Logistics. I have nothing to argue about in the “team spirit” space.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [May 30, 2020, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/318 "2020-05-30T00:26:06Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> The key is that contact tracing can’t be half-assed: either the community as a whole buys in and does it, or they don’t …
If so then discussions about whether or not such a thing is otherwise possible or likely to be effective are moot. It is not yet clear even in Denmark that enough people will download the app that their tracing system is to rely on, let alone ever actually enter in their diagnosis or any other information. The whole community here will not have buy-in since that buy-in requires trust of various levels of government, trust that private information so collected could not be hacked and somehow abused, trust in the technology companies, trust that a phone call or email is not in fact a scam or phishing, and a willingness to self-quarantine for 14 days based on being told they’ve been named as “a contact.”
How many of those with that trust would _even answer a number we do not recognize?_ How many of those who pick up would give an unknown person information about their job and who they have been in contact with and then stay home from work and otherwise self-quarantine while feeling well, after they finally got back to work? How many if they figure out who it was who gave out their name might be pissed?
I am not imagining even half an ass. Maybe just the taint. As in it taint realistic and taint gonna happen. As a country I don’t think even half answer the census!
No, that does not mean that then therefore “the contagion spreads and we wait for a few million deaths …” Really.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [May 30, 2020, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/319 "2020-05-30T00:28:42Z")
Eta: sorry, I guess you’re saying if we were all civic minded citizens, they could publish a list of people infected and I could peruse it and notify authorities if I was near them in the past two weeks? That’s blatantly illegal in the US but I guess you could change the laws regarding health information confidentiality.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [May 30, 2020, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/320 "2020-05-30T00:39:23Z")
Back to Sweden and Denmark!
Who here agrees with what [Denmark’s chief epidemiologist](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark/second-virus-wave-very-unlikely-in-denmark-says-expert-idUSKBN22O15L) is saying?
> [@](#):
>
> “No country has seen an actual second wave yet. Some countries have seen the spread go up and down,” state epidemiologist Kare Molbak said at a news briefing.
>
> “But with the knowledge we have today, I find it very unlikely that we’ll see second wave,” he said.
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