# Sweden do-nothing approach good, US/UK/other countries' early do-nothing approach bad. Why?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone
**Tags:** covid-quarantine
**Created:** [April 3, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962 "2020-04-03T14:44:16Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 28
### Author:  [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/542 "2020-07-30T13:38:40Z")
Because he’s head of a national level public health department, he probably has more information. He’s been involved in other national vaccination efforts. He may be full of crap but he probably has got access to more info than you do traveling around observing. I mean, seriously, dude.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/543 "2020-07-30T14:16:00Z")
Seriously, as an example. Sweden has eight cities of over 100,000 people.
The UK has eighty four.
The entirety of the Swedish population can fit into five of them.
It isn’t even close.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/544 "2020-07-30T14:23:27Z")
Additionally, if you want to concentrate on population density in urban areas.
The UK has thirty five urban areas with a population density of over 4000 people/square km.
Sweden has one. A tiny area just outside Stockholm of 7,475 people.
> **[List of urban areas in Sweden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_Sweden)**
>
> Pages for logged out editors learn more
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>
> There are 1,956 urban areas in Sweden as defined by Statistics Sweden on 31 December 2010. The official term used by Statistics Sweden is "locality" (Swedish: tätort) instead of "urban area" and they are defined as having a minimum of 200 inhabitants. The total population of the localities was 8,016,000 in 2010, which made up 85% of the population of the whole country.
> The urban areas made up 1.3% of the land area of the whole country. The averag...
> **[List of urban areas in the United Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom)**
>
> Pages for logged out editors learn more
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>
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> This is a list of the most populous urban areas in the United Kingdom based on the 2011 census, as defined by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
> The methodology used by ONS in 2011 is set out in 2011 Built-up Areas – Methodology and Guidance, published in June 2013. When ONS reported the results of the 2011 UK census, it used the term "built-up area" rather than the term "urban area" as used in previous censuses. ONS states, however, that ...
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### Author:  [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/545 "2020-07-30T14:59:44Z")
Well, I think he was saying Sweden was closer to the UK than to Finland in density. That’s still dubious and as someone mentioned just above, population density was heavily discussed earlier in this thread.
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### Author:  [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/546 "2020-07-30T15:28:34Z")
Yep, Tegnell is trying to CYA with that claim. Stockholm county, the most densely populated in Sweden (almost 3 times more dense than the second densest) has lower density than the entire countries of Belgium and England (it’s slightly more dense than the UK has a whole).
Overall, Sweden has 1/11th of the density of the UK, and 1/15 of the density of Belgium.
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### Author:  [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/547 "2020-07-30T16:32:36Z")
Tegnell has a novel way of talking up his and Sweden’s ‘success’
Here he claims the likely outlook for Sweden is a further 3000 deaths with a possible upper limit of around 5800.I guess if it is anything less than that it might be seen as a success but what a way to spin a story
> **[Immunity to Covid-19 lasts six months, says the man leading Sweden's fight...](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/immunity-covid-19-lasts-six-months-says-man-leading-swedens/)**
>
> Swedish strategy is working as virus is slowing down, says country's state epidemiologist
Let’s just note that and do a back of the envelope calculation - what in fact he is saying is the ‘successful’ policy will result in is a death rate of between 900 per million through to 1160 per million.
…and this is despite the neighbouring nations having death rates of between 20% to less than 10% and yet he states “It really is yet another sign that the Swedish strategy is working,”
To put this in perspective, he is trying to spin a story that if it were to be replicated in the US would be something around 400 thousand deaths - and if this does prove to be the case I somehow doubt that Americans would feel all that lucky - this is what he is trying to call a success whilst his neighbour nations are looking at figures based on his own judgment of between 220 to perhaps 110 deaths.
Still trying to hang on to failed success story - personally I would have sacked him a long time ago and brought in a more realistic epidemiologist.
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### Author:  [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/548 "2020-07-30T17:46:58Z")
> [@snowthx](#):
>
> Well, today Sweden gets a point…
>
> [Sweden’s Actual COVID-19 Results Compared to What Modelers Predicted in April](https://fee.org/articles/sweden-s-actual-covid-19-results-compared-to-what-modelers-predicted-in-april/)
>
> _“Our model predicts that, using median infection-fatality-rate estimates, at least 96,000 deaths would occur by 1 July without mitigation,”_ … mitigation meaning lockdown.
>
> …snip…
>
> _Total COVID-19 [deaths in Sweden](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/) stand at 5,700, nearly 90,000 less than modelers predicted. Hospitals were never overrun. Daily deaths in Sweden have slowed to a crawl._
Who are the creators of this model and what are their credentials? Who was using this model to enact policy? Were there any news articles highlighting this model at the time of publication? This SDMB thread is over 500 posts; where there any mentions of the model in this thread?
Or, as I suspect, did someone just peruse hundreds of models on preprint publication servers and pick an extreme outlier that no one else has ever seen in order to get a big gotcha? Notice how the article says “inspired by [the Imperial College of London study](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196496/coronavirus-pandemic-could-have-caused-40/)” in order to trick readers into thinking it’s a legitimate model associated with a prestigious group.
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [August 3, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/549 "2020-08-03T19:53:23Z")
Here we go.
The forecasters are saying that Sweden’s hit to the economy will not be as bad as some other European countries.
[Virus Hit to Sweden’s Economy Seen Among Least Bad in Europe](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-03/virus-hit-to-sweden-s-economy-seen-among-least-bad-in-europe?sref=nblE5CPv)
> [@](#):
>
> Data this week could confirm how Sweden’s contentious decision to avoid a full lockdown at the start of the coronavirus pandemic has spared its economy from the worst of the fallout.
> . . .
> “The Swedish economy has not been unscathed, despite its light-touch lockdown, but we think that the quarterly drop in GDP in the second quarter is likely to have been about one-third of that seen in the euro-zone,“ said David Oxley, an economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.
>
> But the strategy has also resulted in Sweden having one of the highest death rates in the world, at [56.4 per 100,000](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality), and it’s unclear whether the economy will fare much better than in neighboring Denmark and Norway, which initially imposed strict lockdowns and have seen substantially lower fatalities.
>
> “We do not know how the virus strategy will affect the economies in the long run,” said Nordea economist Torbjorn Isaksson in emailed comments. “Our Nordic neighbors locked down but may be able to open up and normalize faster.”
Still may not be much better than Norway and Denmark that didn’t have such a high death toll.
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [August 11, 2020, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/550 "2020-08-11T19:55:26Z")
Ever since [Sweden’s Prime Minister order an investigation](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/463) into the country’s handing of the coronavirus response, things have changed in Sweden. More articles are about social distancing than about the do-nothing approach.
In this article, the author talks about how Sweden isn’t exceptional anymore, both in its response to the coronavirus and the results coming from that. Tegnell says the declining death rate is from herd immunity. Other doctors say that it’s likely from the summer holiday that Sweden takes every year that keeps people more isolated.
# Sweden’s pandemic no longer stands out
The country has tougher restrictions in place than in France or Austria and new infections have plunged
> **[Sweden’s pandemic no longer stands out](https://www.ft.com/content/7acfc5b8-d96f-455b-9f36-b70dc850428f)**
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> The country has tougher restrictions in place than in France or Austria and new infections have plunged
> [@](#):
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> Sweden is no longer the outlier it used to be on coronavirus. It no longer has the least restrictive approach to the pandemic in Europe and it has lost its briefly held status as the country with the highest number of deaths per capita after its number of Covid-19 cases decreased over the summer. Its economy has suffered less than the European average in recent months, but at least as much and possibly more than its Nordic neighbours.
>
> “We get a second chance. We don’t want this to take off again. We now have the chance to learn and do additional things to avoid things taking off,” said Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a critic of Sweden’s approach and a professor of cell and molecular immunology at Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm.
> . . .
> The reasons for the decline are far from established. Mr Tegnell argued “there is a relationship between the very quick drop of the last few weeks and the increasing immunity in many parts of Sweden”. Swedish public health authorities have estimated the capital Stockholm could be getting close to “herd immunity”, but their argument is fiercely disputed by other epidemiologists.
>
> Instead, the latter argue much of the recent decline has to do with the fact that Sweden all but closes down for a month after the midsummer holiday at the end of June. Lena Einhorn, a virologist and prominent critic of Sweden’s strategy, argued that results of antibody tests suggest the country remained some distance from herd immunity — where so many people are infected that the virus stops spreading.
When the pandemic hit, Sweden shut down high schools and colleges. Now that school is starting again, Sweden is facing the same issues on opening schools, exacerbated by a public transport issue.
[The high school that equips with masks and visors](https://www.svd.se/gymnasiet-som-rustar-med-munskydd-och-visir)
> [@](#):
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> There are high schools that have prepared themselves practically for a changed school start: “We equip staff and students with masks and visors”, says Carina Lepp Persson, principal at Stockholm Aesthetic High School.
[Continued distance education at Gothenburg high schools](https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/fortsatt-distansundervisning-pa-goteborgs-gymnasier/)
> [@](#):
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> Despite the promise of open schools, many of Gothenburg’s high school students will be forced to continue distance learning this autumn.
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> The municipality’s politicians introduce new schedule rules with later starting time and limited attendance at the school’s premises for older high school students.
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> The purpose of the new rules is to reduce the pressure on public transport.
#[Alarms about high schools: “It’s worrying”](https://www.svd.se/viruslarmet-behovs-en-mer-detaljerad-plan)
> [@](#):
>
> In a week, the upper secondary schools will begin - with concerns at several levels about increased spread of infection and congestion in the canteens.\*\* \*\*“It is worrying that I get so few signals that high schools are planning the activities to keep their distance,” says Åsa Fahlén, the National Union of Teachers.
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### Author:  [@Malleus\_Incus\_Stapes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malleus_Incus_Stapes)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2020, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/551 "2020-08-16T21:40:20Z")
So in a word, the death drops are because they changed their policy?
My relative is a Covid denialist and yesterday he looked up Sweden Covid deaths and was gloating about how they were zero, _zero_. And I was confused because, hey, hadn’t Sweden been a hot mess? But if the death rates are going down because they’re taking the disease more seriously, then that kinda undermines his argument.
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### Author:  [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/552 "2020-08-16T22:45:37Z")
The death rates are approaching zero all over Europe, not just in Sweden.
I read an observation recently that Sweden’s numbers aren’t much different than Quebec’s, in many respects. I found that intriguing.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/553 "2020-08-17T01:13:44Z")
They didn’t change their policies; other countries changed theirs. For the others it was called opening up; for Sweden it was staying the course.
Being low right now is not so much for them to crow about. It is after having paid a price. Once again whether or not that price saves them paying much more over winter and beyond, is to be determined.
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### Author:  [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/554 "2020-08-17T11:32:18Z")
Sweden has had more deaths than all of Norway, Denmark, Finland and Iceland combined. That’s from here:
> **[Sweden's second-quarter GDP fall was its worst in modern history — but...](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/sweden-coronavirus-record-gdp-fall-still-outperformed-some-in-europe.html)**
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> Sweden's government decided not to impose a full-scale lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
Early indications are that their economy took the same hit due to the virus as Norway, so all they got from their do-nothing approach was extra deaths.
Sweden population: about 10 million
Norway: about 5.5 million
Finland: about 5.5 million
Denmark: almost 6 million
Iceland population: less than 0.5 million
(Personal note: I had no idea that all of those countries were so sparsely populated. Sweden is smaller than the NY metro area and Iceland is tiny!)
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### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/555 "2020-08-17T13:42:06Z")
The results of Sweden’s policies probably provide ammunition to both critics and proponents alike. The initial data clearly showed that Sweden’s policies, compared to its European neighbors, resulted in more death. However, it’s possible that Sweden’s population and institutions may have figured out ways to adapt and mitigate the spread on their own. Additionally, like other countries, they apparently learned how to treat the worst cases and control the death rate.
In terms of economics, which was their justification for not shutting down in the first place, it seems that their economy was impacted by the outbreak, even though they chose not to shut down.
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### Author:  [@transcriber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/transcriber)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/556 "2020-08-17T17:25:26Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> In terms of economics, which was their justification for not shutting down in the first place, it seems that their economy was impacted by the outbreak, even though they chose not to shut down.
I’m confused. The article quoted above says Sweden did in fact fare better so far economically than Europe in general. Surely no one claimed that Sweden would be totally unaffected by the pandemic? 🤔
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### Author:  [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/557 "2020-08-17T17:46:17Z")
If you mean my statement, I was comparing them directly to Norway, which is closer to them economically, culturally, and size-wise than, say, Spain, France, Italy, etc. Italy had a complete shut down and many deaths. Ditto Spain.
I haven’t seen final numbers, but early indications suggest that Sweden and Norway fared similarly economically.
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### Author:  [@transcriber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/transcriber)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/558 "2020-08-17T17:48:58Z")
I meant asahi’s statement that “their economy was impacted by the outbreak”. That’s rather meaninglessly obvious unless he meant something about relative impact.
Your article doesn’t seem to name Norway. Where did you see they had a similar economic fallout?
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### Author:  [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/559 "2020-08-17T17:51:16Z")
I’m still trying to track that down. I saw the graph of Sweden and Norway’s second quarter performance on Twitter somewhere, but I can’t find it on the web yet.
ETA: Aha! Here it is:
> **[Sweden's GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its...](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8)**
>
> Denmark, Finland, and Norway all registered disruptions, as well as shielding their populations from COVID-19 with lockdowns.
It doesn’t have Norway yet, but there are estimates that suggest it did better than Sweden. Denmark and Iceland did better, too.
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### Author:  [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/560 "2020-08-17T18:03:26Z")
> **[Sweden's Covid-19 strategist under fire over herd immunity emails](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails)**
>
> Anders Tegnell appears to have asked if higher death rate for older people might be acceptable
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### Author:  [@transcriber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/transcriber)
#### Post date: [August 17, 2020, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/561 "2020-08-17T18:12:23Z")
Huh, the interesting part is that Finland did so much better than all the other Nordics as far as a hit to the economy goes.
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