# Sweden do-nothing approach good, US/UK/other countries' early do-nothing approach bad. Why?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone
**Tags:** covid-quarantine
**Created:** [April 3, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962 "2020-04-03T14:44:16Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 32
### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [October 24, 2020, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/622 "2020-10-24T12:26:14Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> [Sweden is now considering lockdowns](https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000121026283/schweden-denkt-nun-doch-ueber-lockdowns-nach)
> [Schweden denkt nun doch über Lockdowns nach - Schweden - derStandard.at › International](https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000121026283/schweden-denkt-nun-doch-ueber-lockdowns-nach)
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > Regional lockdowns could be implemented from Monday. “The herd immunity is not as high as assumed,” says chief epidemiologist Tegnell
> > . . .
> > On Monday, a new regulation will come into force that also allows regional health authorities to implement restrictions in their regions - in consultation with the national health agency. Possible measures include directing citizens to avoid shopping centers, museums, libraries and swimming pools. Other affected places can be sports facilities, sporting events and concerts. The use of public transport may also be restricted in order to protect risk groups such as the elderly.
> >
> > “It’s kind of a lockdown situation, but a local lockdown,” said Nojd.
Not just considering. Uppsala (north of Stockholm, fourth biggest city in Sweden) put this in to place right after they announced it.
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### Author:  [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)
#### Post date: [October 24, 2020, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/623 "2020-10-24T15:33:51Z")
Meanwhile, they claim that September 2020 was the least deadly month in Sweden’s _history_.
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### Author:  [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)
#### Post date: [October 24, 2020, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/624 "2020-10-24T17:22:38Z")
> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> Meanwhile, they claim that September 2020 was the least deadly month in Sweden’s _history_ .
Yes, and probably for a lot of Europe and some U.S. States, too. I heard a couple months ago that the UK had negative excess deaths for a time period because of displaced mortality. Some of the people who died during the big surges would have died in the following months anyway from other causes.
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### Author:  [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)
#### Post date: [October 24, 2020, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/625 "2020-10-24T23:32:58Z")
A quick look at road death stats to see how this reflects changed behaviour, Australia has had a 5% reduction compared to the same period last year. it continues a longer-term trend to reduce road fatalities but likely to be in part to reduced economic activity and restricted movement directly attributable to covid. Five percent of a lot of needless deaths is a good saving regardless, but should not be used to create a simplistic cost-benefit equation that justifies needless direct covid deaths from other areas of mismanagement.
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### Author:  [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)
#### Post date: [October 25, 2020, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/626 "2020-10-25T03:37:42Z")
They’re wrong, actually. I’m looking at the figures from the preliminary register of deaths right now.
([Population statistics](https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/) , link that says ‘Preliminary Statistics on Death’ if anyone wants a reference)
September 2020 - 6539 deaths
August 2018 - 6514
June 2018 - 6499
July 2019 - 6497
June 2019 - 6452
I know exactly how they made that mistake too - Sweden’s not done counting September deaths yet. That figure of 6539 is **preliminary** , and on the way up. If someone checked at the start of October then yes, September 2020 probably was beautifully low.
Now, for balance, in fact July August and September this year have had lower than average deaths compared to the past five years. Not much lower but yes, lower. However, **so did January and February** - they both have about 500 less deaths than their respective averages. Whereas July-September are only about 100 or 200 down from the average.
Basically, before COVID came anywhere near Sweden they were on track for a record low deaths year … the fact that they’ve almost got back there if you restrict your measurement to just after the first wave and before they’ve had a second one, is not that surprising.
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### Author:  [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)
#### Post date: [October 25, 2020, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/627 "2020-10-25T04:38:46Z")
I imagine they are counting deaths per capita, and there’s been some population growth?
Regardless, and even with the trends you rightly identify, I think the point is made. And if you are wrong about a second wave, or at least about a particularly deadly one, then I think it might should be a little more surprising than you admit, for those who believe C19 is ‘not just the flu’.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/628 "2020-10-28T20:23:01Z")
Just to keep you updated, Sweden had their largest daily increase of infections since the start of the pandemic today.
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### Author:  [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/629 "2020-10-28T22:04:01Z")
Cite?
What does “largest daily increase of infections” mean? Here’s a chart of their 7-day moving average of cases. Their cases are definitely on the rise, but it’s still ~40% below their peak 7-day average.
> **[COVID-19 Data Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-02-18..2020-10-15&country=~SWE®ion=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc)**
>
> Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems
Thankfully, deaths remain flat since around the beginning of August, hovering between 1.5 and 3 per day.
> **[COVID-19 Data Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-02-18..2020-10-15&country=~SWE®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc)**
>
> Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/630 "2020-10-28T22:13:20Z")
> [@Trom](#):
>
> Cite?
>
> What does “largest daily increase of infections” mean? Here’s a chart of their 7-day moving average of cases. Their cases are definitely on the rise, but it’s still ~40% below their peak 7-day average.
Sweden sets new daily COVID-19 case record as infections surge
> **[Sweden sets new daily COVID-19 case record as infections surge](https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-sets-daily-covid-19-132152966.html)**
>
> Sweden, whose light-touch pandemic strategy has gained global attention, registered 1,980 new coronavirus cases on Oct. 27, the highest since the start of the pandemic, Health Agency statistics showed on Wednesday. The increase compares with a high...
> [@](#):
>
> Sweden, whose light-touch pandemic strategy has gained global attention, registered 1,980 new coronavirus cases on Oct. 27, the highest since the start of the pandemic, Health Agency statistics showed on Wednesday.
>
> The increase compares with a high of 1,870 daily cases recorded on Oct. 23. The Health Agency has said the peak during the spring probably ran far higher but went unrecorded due to a lack of testing at the time.
>
> Sweden registered 9 new deaths, taking the total to 5,927 deaths. Sweden’s death rate per capita is several times higher than Nordic neighbours but lower than some larger European countries, such as Spain and Britain.
---
### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2020, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/631 "2020-10-28T22:24:19Z")
Missed the edit window.
> [@Trom](#):
>
> What does “largest daily increase of infections” mean? Here’s a chart of their 7-day moving average of cases. Their cases are definitely on the rise, but it’s still ~40% below their peak 7-day average.
No, it’s not. I just looked at that chart. On Oct. 26, the average is 1309.7. The previous high looks like it was 1072 on June 20.
When I first opened your chart, the stat was stuck on Oct 15. I had to scroll out to Oct. 27.
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### Author:  [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2020, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/632 "2020-10-28T22:30:26Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> When I first opened your chart, the stat was stuck on Oct 15. I had to scroll out to Oct. 27.
Ha, yep. That explains it.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2020, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/633 "2020-10-28T23:29:09Z")
> [@Trom](#):
>
> Cite?
Literally everywhere in the Swedish press today. I didn’t share because few people here can speak Swedish.
As for what it means, it is the largest increase in reported infections in a twenty four hour period. That is exactly (well, translated) how the Swedish press have been reporting it.
I see others have covered this so I won’t bore you with links in a foreign language about that, but I will also offer this from yesterday where Tegnell says that last week there was a 70% increase in cases:
> **[70-procentig ökning av coronafall i Sverige på en vecka](https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/70-procentig-okning-av-fall-i-sverige)**
>
> Coronaläget blir allt svårare – igen. Statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell menar att det delvis beror på att provtagningen har trappats upp, men han bekräftar också att smittspridningen ökar.
> – Smittan ökar drastiskt i hela världen, även i Sverige. Förra...
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [October 28, 2020, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/634 "2020-10-28T23:30:07Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> > [@Trom](#):
> >
> > Cite?
> >
> > What does “largest daily increase of infections” mean? Here’s a chart of their 7-day moving average of cases. Their cases are definitely on the rise, but it’s still ~40% below their peak 7-day average.
>
> Sweden sets new daily COVID-19 case record as infections surge
> [Sweden sets new daily COVID-19 case record as infections surge](https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-sets-daily-covid-19-132152966.html)
>
> > [@](#):
> >
> > Sweden, whose light-touch pandemic strategy has gained global attention, registered 1,980 new coronavirus cases on Oct. 27, the highest since the start of the pandemic, Health Agency statistics showed on Wednesday.
> >
> > The increase compares with a high of 1,870 daily cases recorded on Oct. 23. The Health Agency has said the peak during the spring probably ran far higher but went unrecorded due to a lack of testing at the time.
> >
> > Sweden registered 9 new deaths, taking the total to 5,927 deaths. Sweden’s death rate per capita is several times higher than Nordic neighbours but lower than some larger European countries, such as Spain and Britain.
That has been “beaten”. It was 2,128 cases today (the 28th).
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2020, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/635 "2020-10-29T00:09:25Z")
> [@amanset](#):
>
> That has been “beaten”. It was 2,128 cases today (the 28th).
Wow.
If you don’t mind sharing, I’m wondering what the mood or thinking of the Swedish people has been lately. It seems like they were happy to go along with the very loose restrictions in the beginning. Then the restrictions got more stringent when infections started to rise. Do people feel like there will be more restrictions? Do most people in the general population want more or less restrictions at this point?
---
### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2020, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/636 "2020-10-29T01:01:36Z")
Interview: ‘Sweden could have prevented 4,000 deaths with lockdown’
> **[Interview: 'Sweden could have prevented 4,000 deaths with lockdown'](https://www.thelocal.se/20201020/sweden-could-have-prevented-4000-deaths-with-spring-lockdown-maths-expert)**
>
> The maths professor who is one of Sweden's foremost epidemiological modellers has suggested 4,000 coronavirus deaths could have been avoided this spring if the country had put in place restrictions similar to those in Norway and Denmark.
A math professor modeled that 4,000 lives could have been saved if Sweden had locked down in March like their neighboring countries. However, he says that Sweden would still have had more deaths than their neighboring countries. He says that if they now heed restrictions, there may be fewer deaths due to the level of herd immunity gained earlier.
> [@](#):
>
> The maths professor who is one of Sweden’s foremost epidemiological modellers has suggested 4,000 coronavirus deaths could have been avoided this spring if the country had put in place restrictions similar to those in Norway and Denmark.
> Tom Britton, maths professor at Stockholm University, made waves in April when he predicted on Swedish national television that up to 20,000 people in Sweden might ultimately die from the virus.
>
> He told The Local that he was now convinced that greater restrictions would have saved lives, at least in the short term, if they had been imposed in mid-March.
>
> “I think that if we had done a more serious lockdown, we would have saved more lives, but we would still probably have had maybe 1,000 or even 2,000 dead people,” he said. “I don’t think we could have reached the low numbers of Denmark and, in particular, Norway.”
> . . .
> Right now, he warned, Sweden was at a point where it needed to take action quite urgently to avoid seeing a resurgence in cases which would lead to deaths in the coming months.
>
> “If we follow the recommendations and restrictions, I think very few will die, it could be a hundred or something. Whereas if we, neglect all recommendations or restrictions, it could be of the order of a thousand instead. I think we could see a big second wave, not as big as in the spring, but still a big one.”
---
### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2020, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/637 "2020-10-29T13:45:55Z")
2128 was the daily record yesterday.
Today we had 2820 cases.
New restrictions (which are officially just “recommendations” as there isn’t the legal framework right now to enforce anything during peacetime, apparently) came in to three regions today, including Stockholm (where I live):
> **[New coronavirus measures rolled out in three Swedish regions, including...](https://www.thelocal.se/20201029/new-coronavirus-measures-for-three-swedish-regions-including-stockholm-and-gothenburg/)**
>
> Three new regions in Sweden – Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Östergötland – are rolling out sharper coronavirus recommendations amid a rise in infections.
I very much hope that this will finally end the speculation that Sweden’s “hands off” approach works. It doesn’t. Everyone I know is pretty much pretending everything is normal and this is the result.
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### Author:  [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2020, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/638 "2020-10-29T13:51:35Z")
Worth bearing in mind that many EU countries are experiencing a surge at this time (and have re-imposed lockdowns, in some cases). Most notably France (where the rate of new infections is about 250% of the US rate), but also England and Germany which are all rising rapidly and at all-time highs. So you need to view the Swedish numbers in context.
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> A math professor modeled that 4,000 lives could have been saved if Sweden had locked down in March like their neighboring countries. However, he says that Sweden would still have had more deaths than their neighboring countries. He says that if they now heed restrictions, there may be fewer deaths due to the level of herd immunity gained earlier.
Most of these models are virtually worthless in this context and are attempts to impress people with impressive-seeming “models” that ultimately amount to nothing. The problem is that all models - no matter how sophisticated mathematically - are only as good as the assumptions which are fed into them, and changing the assumptions can drastically change the results. So such models can be useful in pinning down a number where there is consensus on the underlying assumptions, but where the assumptions themselves are what’s in dispute - as is apparently the case here - then modeling doesn’t add anything.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2020, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/639 "2020-10-29T13:53:33Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#):
>
> So you need to view the Swedish numbers in context.
The context being that last week there was a 70% rise in cases. Yesterday was the record daily number and today we’ve added another 30% to that record.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2020, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/640 "2020-10-29T13:59:36Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> > [@amanset](#):
> >
> > That has been “beaten”. It was 2,128 cases today (the 28th).
>
> Wow.
>
> If you don’t mind sharing, I’m wondering what the mood or thinking of the Swedish people has been lately. It seems like they were happy to go along with the very loose restrictions in the beginning. Then the restrictions got more stringent when infections started to rise. Do people feel like there will be more restrictions? Do most people in the general population want more or less restrictions at this point?
Most people don’t want restrictions and, frankly, have been acting as if nothing is going on. There is talk here of fatigue from it all and yet my Facebook and Instagram is full of people living their life as normal. Hell, I cancelled on a friend last night who was having a birthday dinner as I decided it was not safe.
Oh and, of course, pretty much no one thinks there is any point to masks. I am routinely the only one in sight wearing one.
And yet here we are.
---
### Author:  [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)
#### Post date: [October 29, 2020, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/641 "2020-10-29T14:06:03Z")
> [@amanset](#):
>
> The context being that last week there was a 70% rise in cases. Yesterday was the record daily number and today we’ve added another 30% to that record.
No, that’s not the context. The context is that this is happening all across Europe. See e.g. [European Countries Setting Coronavirus Case Records](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-10-28/european-countries-setting-coronavirus-case-records).
Per the numbers [here](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea), Sweden’s per capita 14 day cumulative new cases is lower than any of the European countries that they show (in some cases much much lower).
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