# Sweden do-nothing approach good, US/UK/other countries' early do-nothing approach bad. Why?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone
**Tags:** covid-quarantine
**Created:** [April 3, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962 "2020-04-03T14:44:16Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 35
### Author:  [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)
#### Post date: [October 31, 2020, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/682 "2020-10-31T22:16:43Z")
Boris Johnson announces four-week national Covid lockdown in England
> **[Boris Johnson announces four-week national Covid lockdown in England](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/boris-johnson-announces-national-lockdown-england-coronavirus)**
>
> Restrictions in place from midnight on Thursday are needed to tackle coronavirus spread, PM says
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2020, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/683 "2020-11-01T11:58:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> Apparently not much increase in [hospital utilization](https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/sweden-hits-grim-coronavirus-record-as-country-is-warned-infections-will-get-worse/news-story/44d927668743f89482f02a610f3e68ad?from=rss-basic) either: “So far the increase has not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals.”
This is where it is kind of useful to be able to read Swedish. Stockholm, where I live, reports every few days on how many people are in acute care, intensive care and care homes. And the past week it has increased with every report. In one week it went from 85 to 148 people. It may not be thousands, but it is clearly different to “So far the increase has not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals.” But I’m guessing whatever I say you’ll just move the goalposts to claim that everything is just fine.
Oh and looking back, on the 9th of October it was 37 people. 37 to 148, a 4x increase.Yeah, “So far the increase has not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals.”
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2020, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/684 "2020-11-01T12:07:57Z")
> [@Banksiaman](#):
>
> > [@SayTwo](#):
> >
> > Still and all, the point is far less about what a handful of countries, given their relatively unique circumstances, were able to achieve, or at least achieve to date. It’s about what would have been, or would be, best on balance for the entire world.
>
> Okay New Zealand is an island, so it has a hard border option. However, I’m not sure NZ’s ‘relatively unique circumstances’ as an island applies to other countries like Vietnam and Uruguay, who still managed to have negligible cases and deaths and have land borders. Maybe they listened to science and took action when it mattered, instead of circling the wagons around the old folks homes [where only a small fraction of any country’s most susceptible live in any case] and assuming that any subsequent fatalities were the cost of doing business.
The one I normally go with is Hong Kong. Land border with China, never went into lockdown, 7.5 million people and only 105 deaths (compared to the 10 million people and nearly 6000 deaths of Sweden).
And it is deeply personal to me as that is where my girlfriend is from and currently is. Covid-19 has kept us apart, we haven’t seen each other since January. Her country got this shit under control, it is mine that is massively fucking up.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/685 "2020-11-01T12:18:15Z")
> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> > [@amanset](#):
> >
> > As I said, we are at the point where we are approaching double the amount of daily infections that we were experiencing at the peak during the summer. Today it went up again, 3188 new infections were recorded. Just two days ago it was 2128 and that was a record, we’ve added 50% to that record in two days.
>
> Might you have any insight into what the testing regimes are like there, and have been? Like, who are the people being tested. Is it mandatory for certain groups? Is it all just entirely optional? Is it mainly from people who think they are sick? I’ve long wondered about this, for many places.
>
> If the protocols are the same now as they were during the first peak, I’d also be curious to know if they publish additional details like positivity rates. I suppose I’ve been under some impression that Sweden is a place with lax testing, and that there may have been a much higher prevalence during the first peak than the same numbers would indicate now.
My understanding is that you are tested if you go to hospital, but beyond that you get tested if you ask for it (there are clinics to go to that do the testing). With the recent increase in infections apparently Stockholm has now stopped home testing. You used to be able to order a test online from the general healthcare portal 1177.se, but that has now been paused until thursday during which time they are implementing some sort of queue system.
Healthcare in Sweden is pretty regional so finding nationwide statistics is hard. In Stockholm the most recent report, dated 30th of October states that:
> [@](#):
>
> Under vecka 43 har det analyserats 37 540 tester för pågående covid-19. Av dessa var 8,4 procent, eller 3 140\* provsvar positiva. Det är en markant ökning jämfört med veckan före.
This basically translates as “During week 43 (week beginning October 19th) 37,540 tests were analysed, of which 8.4 percent (3,140 tests) were positive. This is a marked increase compared with the previous week.”
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 1, 2020, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/686 "2020-11-01T12:30:45Z")
Missed the edit window:
To add to that, as an example I am in a risk group (I am a type 1 diabetic). I have not been approached to even inquire as to whether I want to be tested, antibody tested or whatnot. Not that I personally think I need to be, as I have been pretty much isolating myself from indoors groups of people, but more as an illustration as to how testing is going.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 2, 2020, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/687 "2020-11-02T17:23:43Z")
Region Stockholm’s healthcare director says he is very worried after a strong increase in number of hospitalised people in Stockholm:
> **[Sjukvårdsdirektören: ”Det är ett mycket bekymmersamt läge”](https://www.dn.se/sthlm/sjukvardsdirektoren-jag-ar-mycket-oroad-over-den-okade-smittspridningen/)**
>
> Smittspridningen fortsätter att öka snabbt i Stockholm. Just nu vårdas 203 personer med corona på akutsjukhus eller i geriatrisk vård.
Drastic increase in the number of hospitalised patients in Värstra Götaland (where Gothenburg is):
> **[Kraftig ökning av inlagda covidpatienter i Västra Götaland](https://www.dn.se/sverige/kraftig-okning-av-inlagda-covidpatienter-i-vastra-gotaland/)**
>
> På måndagen var totalt 96 patienter med covid-19 inlagda på sjukhusen i Västra Götaland.
Number of people that need hospital care in Uppsala is increasing quickly. Healthcare director is deeply worried:
> **[Följ DN:s direktrapportering om coronapandemin](https://www.dn.se/sverige/det-nya-coronaviruset-folj-utvecklingen-live/)**
>
> I direktrapporteringen uppdaterar DN löpande om coronapandemin.
As that last one is a live blog, here is the relevant bit:
> "Antalet bekräftade fall av covid-19 och antalet patienter som behöver sjukhusvård ökar snabbt i Uppsala Län, det visar ny statistik från regionen.
>
> Sjukvårdsdirektören i Region Uppsala säger att man är djupt oroade över utvecklingen."
One day people will realise that Tegnell is full of shit and talking out of his arse.
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### Author:  [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)
#### Post date: [November 2, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/688 "2020-11-02T17:31:53Z")
Did you happen to watch this recent interview Tegnell gave?
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IgbuUD5MjQ)
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [November 2, 2020, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/689 "2020-11-02T19:55:42Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#):
>
> Most of these models are virtually worthless in this context and are attempts to impress people with impressive-seeming “models” that ultimately amount to nothing. The problem is that all models - no matter how sophisticated mathematically - are only as good as the assumptions which are fed into them, and changing the assumptions can drastically change the results. So such models can be useful in pinning down a number where there is consensus on the underlying assumptions, but where the assumptions themselves are what’s in dispute - as is apparently the case here - then modeling doesn’t add anything.
Interesting comment from an actuary (?). While I agree that coronavirus models in the beginning of the pandemic were way off because of all the unknowns, without them, it would be harder to make decisions about what to do.
In this particular case, some of the variables are more known, especially in the statement about how many lives would have been saved in Sweden because he’s looking backward with the benefit of hindsight and more information. The amount of lives that were lost (over 5K) is known. The amount of lives in regions close to Sweden is known. The fatality rate currently as versus at the time is known. Putting it together is a theory, but not a wild one, I think.
> [@amanset](#):
>
> One day people will realise that Tegnell is full of shit and talking out of his arse.
I’ve been wondering if that will happen. Thank you for all the updates and impressions about what’s going on there.
> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> Did you happen to watch this recent interview Tegnell gave?
Could you give a summary or the point he was making? It’s an hour long interview.
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### Author:  [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)
#### Post date: [November 2, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/690 "2020-11-02T20:28:41Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> Interesting comment from an actuary (?).
FWIW, my assessment of the utility of mathematical models is highly based on my training and experience as an actuary.
To emphasize again - that’s not to say that mathematical models don’t have value. Only that their value is not in proving things when the key assumptions are themselves what’s in dispute.
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> In this particular case, some of the variables are more known, especially in the statement about how many lives would have been saved in Sweden because he’s looking backward with the benefit of hindsight and more information. The amount of lives that were lost (over 5K) is known. The amount of lives in regions close to Sweden is known.
ISTM that the efficacy of various measures that Sweden might have instituted is at issue here.
Bottom line is that if you already agree that the Swedish approach was a mistake and that the alternative approaches would have saved lives, and you’re just looking to put a number on just how many lives it was that were lost due to the Swedish approach, then you might want to use this guy’s 4,000 life number. But if you’re questioning whether that approach cost lives altogether, then the fact that a mathematician came up with a model which said it cost 4,000 lives doesn’t add anything.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [November 2, 2020, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/691 "2020-11-02T20:52:47Z")
FWIW the source I used was clearly incorrect and ICU numbers can be visualized here:
[https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/corona.covid-dagligen](https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/corona.covid-dagligen)
Up from lowest lows in September. Very very low compared to April but clearly rising. Not flat.
Currently about half the per capita deaths 7 day average as Denmark. Might change
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 2, 2020, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/692 "2020-11-02T21:14:48Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> I’ve been wondering if that will happen. Thank you for all the updates and impressions about what’s going on there.
I think what frustrates me the most is I am tired of hearing Swedes say that Sweden has taken the scientific approach, which comes with a not so subtle implication that no one else has.
Because for a start they haven’t. They have refused to listen to anything from other countries, with everything hand waved away with yet another expression of Swedish exceptionalism.
I have no doubt that Tegnell can do the science side. He has that history for him. But right now I can’t decide if he just really likes the limelight or if he is simply playing politics, saying whatever he can to make Sweden look good. Because some of the stuff he has said has been just bizarre (I ranted about his views on Sweden’s population density earlier, for example).
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### Author:  [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)
#### Post date: [November 3, 2020, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/693 "2020-11-03T13:36:10Z")
> [@amanset](#):
>
> I think what frustrates me the most is I am tired of hearing Swedes say that Sweden has taken the scientific approach, which comes with a not so subtle implication that no one else has.
From my vantage point, I think that is my objection to the Swedish approach as well, amanset.
If Tegnell had said, look, people are going to get psychologically tired of being perpetually locked down, so we’re just not going to do it because…reasons…I think I could have accepted that on some level.
But Swedish officials have been characterizing this as a scientific approach when it’s clearly not. It flies in the face of what has been known about the mode of transmission since at least February, and it doesn’t seem to have any basis in terms of public health policy - at least not a basis that is widely recognized by other health departments around the world.
The fact that Sweden might not lead the world or even Europe in deaths per capita, hospitalizations per capita - fine, I acknowledge that could be the case. Is Sweden’s situation the worst in the world or the worst in Europe? Maybe not. But that isn’t the question to ask. The question is, could Sweden have lowered the infection rate, lowered the hospitalization rate, and lowered the death rate with more precautions? I think the answer is almost unequivocally yes.
If I were a Swede, I would feel like I’d been cheated out of the taxes that I pay, knowing that more could have been done but just wasn’t.
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### Author:  [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)
#### Post date: [November 3, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/694 "2020-11-03T16:15:16Z")
Note that in much of East Asia they took the “unscientific” route of extreme lockdowns, mandatory mask use, testing and tracing, and they have had some of the best outcomes.
That includes here in China. You can notice that the major news outlets don’t bother to speculate about hidden cases in China any more. Even Trump, who has often suggested China’s cases must be much higher than reported, recently casually conceded that China had “stopped the virus from getting to other parts of China but not to the rest of the world”.
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### Author:  [@paulmarkj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paulmarkj)
#### Post date: [November 3, 2020, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/695 "2020-11-03T18:26:38Z")
> [@asahi](#):
>
> If I were a Swede, I would feel like I’d been cheated out of the taxes that I pay, knowing that more could have been done but just wasn’t.
But more is sometimes less. More action means more lockdown means economy tanks, less money for health services and less money for all!
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 4, 2020, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/696 "2020-11-04T18:57:27Z")
I know we are all distracted by other things today, but 28 new deaths were registered today. Maybe not as many as other countries, but it is a lot when considering that not long ago we were having days with no deaths registered and as far as I can tell July 18th was the last day we had double figures deaths in a day (note: there may not have been double figures deaths today as some of these deaths will have occurred over the past few days, but it is quite likely).
Total deaths at 5997 now. The 6000 barrier will almost certainly be broken tomorrow.
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### Author:  [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)
#### Post date: [November 6, 2020, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/697 "2020-11-06T06:54:03Z")
An interesting, and not overly long article on what is currently going in Sweden, seen through the eyes of some Australians working in different parts of its health care system.
> **[Aussie health workers in Sweden speak out as hospitals struggle to keep up](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-06/australian-health-worker-in-sweden-catch-covid-19-warning/12799566)**
>
> At first glance, life in Sweden during the pandemic appears to have hardly changed. But those working in the public health sector have had a very different experience.
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/698 "2020-11-11T23:16:32Z")
A couple more regulations in Sweden. Only 8 people or less allowed at a table and no alcohol after 10 pm.
[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54797112](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54797112)
>
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2020, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/699 "2020-11-11T23:45:09Z")
This guy does a weekly review of the coronavirus in Sweden. It’s pretty exhaustive with charts, graphs and links. This is last week’s review.
> **[Last Week in Sweden: a Covid Report (November 1 – 8, 2020)](https://emanuelkarlsten.se/weekly-corona-summary-november-1-8-2020/)**
>
> Throughout the Coronavirus crisis, I’ve been summarizing on a weekly basis the most important and talked about happenings from a Swedish perspective. This is week 45. (This story was originally pos…
> [@](#):
>
> [6,022](https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa) people have now died [with](https://emanuelkarlsten.se/04/folkhalsomyndigheten-redovisar-antalet-som-dor-med-corona-inte-som-dor-av-corona/) covid-19 in Sweden; an increase of 84 reported deaths compared to [last week](https://emanuelkarlsten.se/coronaveckan-som-gatt-v44). Not since [July](https://emanuelkarlsten.se/coronaveckan-som-gatt-v29/) have so many deaths been reported, and now it seems appropriate to start making use once again of [Adam Altmejd’s graph](https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/) showing the total number of deaths reported per day. The curve is clearly trending upwards, and shows signs of continuing to do so as we move towards a situation resembling that which we saw in the spring. In the last month, Sweden has seen more fatalities than the rest of the Nordic countries combined, and almost all of this autumn’s deaths so far have been Swedes over 70.
He notes that many of the people dying in Sweden lately have been over 80, similar to the first wave.
The Swedish Prime Minister is in quarantine.
He has a section about the recent recommendations/guidelines, notes that there have been no changes in the infection rates but also says that compliance is not very good judging by Google mobility maps and that there was an increase in people using public transport.
The Swedish Public Health Agency continues to reject mask wearing.
He also discusses a book about Tegnell that has recently been released.
> [@](#):
>
> **Did Anders Tegnell deliberately try to steer Sweden towards a strategy that would involve thousands of deaths?** [Author Johan Anderberg](https://www.svd.se/mejlen-avslojar-tegnells-val-huvudlos-strategi) seems to suggest exactly that in his forthcoming book ‘The Herd’. The public health authority said this week that it is neither ”[true nor relevant](https://www.svd.se/carlson-mejlet-ar-taget-ur-sitt-sammanhang)”. However, when national newspaper Svenska Dagbladet published an excerpt from the book this week, Tegnell is alleged to have admitted the above in a conversation with Peet Tull, former head of the Infection Control Unit at the National Board of Health and Welfare.
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### Author:  [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)
#### Post date: [November 11, 2020, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/700 "2020-11-11T23:58:14Z")
[Missed the edit window]
In another article, Stockholm is restricting visits to nursing homes and increasing testing.
[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-nursing/stockholm-rushes-to-stem-nursing-home-covid-surge-with-visit-ban-quick-tests-idUSKBN27R2MR?il=0](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-nursing/stockholm-rushes-to-stem-nursing-home-covid-surge-with-visit-ban-quick-tests-idUSKBN27R2MR?il=0)
> [@](#):
>
> After slowing to a trickle in summer, infections at Stockholm’s nursing homes have shot up in recent weeks. Of the region’s 313 facilities, 48 now have cases, data showed, an increase of more than 20 from last week.
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### Author:  [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)
#### Post date: [November 12, 2020, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/701 "2020-11-12T22:22:24Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#):
>
> He has a section about the recent recommendations/guidelines, notes that there have been no changes in the infection rates but also says that compliance is not very good judging by Google mobility maps and that there was an increase in people using public transport.
DN has article today that apparently says that there has been a downturn in the amount of people moving around. Unfortunately it is behind a paywall.
The Guardian has this today:
> **[Swedish surge in Covid cases dashes immunity hopes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity)**
>
> Country has opted for light-touch, anti-lockdown approach since start of pandemic
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