# Sweden do-nothing approach good, US/UK/other countries' early do-nothing approach bad. Why? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 3, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962 "2020-04-03T14:44:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/101 "2020-04-14T01:29:17Z")
This article shows me why Sweden’s approach won’t really have much usefulness as guidance for what other countries can do. Because the results will be measured in hindsight and the goalposts are moving about what success means. [Sweden sticks to ‘low-scale’ lockdown despite rise in coronavirus deaths](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/as-virus-deaths-rise-sweden-sticks-to-low-scale-lockdown) Now that Sweden has had twice as many deaths per million as Denmark, now they’re saying that Denmark will have a spike when they open back up. Maybe. But Sweden’s deaths already happened. Those people can’t come back. Denmark can adjust their restrictions. Their original reason was that the economy would be less hard hit. But it looks like it was pretty hard hit along with the deaths. > [@](#): > > And while most businesses in Sweden are still operating, the economic cost of the pandemic is already being felt. Last week, 25,350 Swedes registered as unemployed, according to the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce — a larger increase than during the 2008 financial crisis. The Prime Minster is on board with tightening the restrictions but the chief epidemiologist is not. > [@](#): > > Sweden, with a population of 10 million, has registered 899 deaths, while Denmark, with 5.8 million people, has 273 deaths. > > After a sharp spike in deaths in Sweden, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven proposed an emergency law allowing the quick closure of public venues and transportation if needed. Lofven also warned citizens to prepare for possibly up to thousands of deaths. > > Nevertheless, Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist, insists that Sweden’s approach still seems to make sense, though he also acknowledges that the world is in uncharted territory with the virus. Tegnell says that Denmark may see a sharp spike when regulations are relaxed. Denmark says that there is no right or wrong approach. > [@](#): > > Lars Ostergaard, chief consultant and professor at the Department of Infectious Diseases at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark, agrees it is too soon to know which approach is best. > > “Every day a person is not being infected because of the strict lockdown, we are a day closer to a cure,” Ostergaard said, underlining the advantage of the Danish approach. But he acknowledges that the long-term consequences of a locked-down community could also be “substantial.” > > “There is no right or wrong way,” Ostergaard said. ”No one has walked this path before, and only the aftermath will show who made the best decision.” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/102 "2020-04-14T02:02:26Z")
Well that last quote is absolutely true. Not “the cure” part , that’s BS, but that the aftermath, history, will be the judge. Meanwhile the “goalposts” going in with the Sweden Denmark tracks comparisons have been pretty clear from my POV: Can Sweden with their less draconian approach stay within the ability of their healthcare system to handle their surge? How many more deaths per million will they have than Denmark in the short term, and, over the complete course of the epidemic will they end up with more or not or maybe less? Both will of course have economic impacts but will one have less than the other and with what impacts of that on mortality and morbidity over the rest of the year? The mitigation flatten the curve idea is to keep the peak from exceeding healthcare ability to handle it and presuming that the total number of deaths is the same otherwise. IF that is the model subscribed to and IF their approach avoids exceeding their capacity then they may do better over the longer term in terms of deaths and damage to their citizens. Big ifs and a big may to be sure. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/103 "2020-04-14T02:08:33Z")
Sweden seems to have a very strong 7 day cycle in its numbers, so I would be inclined to wait a bit longer. We can hope they have things more under control. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/104 "2020-04-14T04:54:13Z")
Article in the Independent (UK) yesterday: [‘I’ve never written so many death certificates’: Is Sweden having second thoughts on lockdown?](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-doctor-death-certificates-latest-a9462796.html) > [@](#): > > I’ve never written so many death certificates. I’ve never worked this many hours,” says an exhausted Issa Yacoub, a doctor working in Sodersjukhuset, one of Stockholm’s largest public hospitals. > > He and his colleagues are becoming increasingly overwhelmed with the number of patients passing through their doors. > … > > The virus has spread to one-third of nursing homes in Stockholm, which has resulted in a spike in fatalities. > > Prime minister Stefan Lofven recently admitted in an interview with daily Svenska Dagbladet that “Sweden has not succeeded in protecting it’s elderly”. Mr Lofven also warned citizens to prepare for possibly up to “thousands” of deaths. > … > > Karolinska hospital has issued guidelines to doctors indicating that patients 80 years old and above would not be admitted into intensive care units, nor those between 60 and 80 with pre-existing conditions. > > The prime minister has proposed an emergency law for the rapid closure of schools, public areas and transportation if the situation worsens. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/105 "2020-04-14T05:10:38Z")
Wow; so a 62 year old with high blood pressure would not be admitted to an ICU? That’s harsh. ETA: According to WoM right now, Sweden has 91 deaths per 1 million while Denmark has 49 deaths per 1 million. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/106 "2020-04-14T05:27:10Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Can Sweden with their less draconian approach stay within the ability of their healthcare system to handle their surge? One could argue that already happened back in March 16, 2020. [More ICU beds needed to handle Swedish coronavirus cases, doctors say](https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7430274) > [@](#): > > Several regions - like the major urban areas of Stockholm, Skåne and Västra Götaland - say they are planning on offering additional ICU beds in the near future to handle more serious COVID-19 infections. > > But as the number of confirmed cases inches toward 1,000 on Monday, some health workers says finding enough space to treat patients is already a serious issue. In order to meet the need, [tent hospitals](https://abcnews.go.com/International/photos-field-hospitals-built-globe-coronavirus-pandemic-spreads/story?id=69962474) were set up in different areas in Sweden. The [number of hospital beds](https://www.statista.com/statistics/557358/hospital-beds-in-sweden/) overall has been declining from 2000-2017 in Sweden. In a study from July 2012, Sweden had the [second least](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8) amount of critical care hospital beds in Europe. According to this [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds#cite_note-Rhodes2012-27), Sweden has 5.8 ICU beds per 100,000 people and 570 ventilators. Hopefully, Sweden has procured more ventilators since there are now [859 serious/critical patients](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/) with the coronavirus as of today. One might argue that people are not receiving the best care in a makeshift tent hospital with a shortage of ventilators. Dying in a tent hospital so that a segment of the population can dine in restaurants isn’t a trade-off I would choose. I would use the second definition of [draconian](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/draconian) while you appear to be using the first. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/107 "2020-04-14T05:43:34Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > Article in the Independent (UK) yesterday: > > [‘I’ve never written so many death certificates’: Is Sweden having second thoughts on lockdown?](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-doctor-death-certificates-latest-a9462796.html) More quotes from that article that I find telling. > [@](#): > > Dr Carina King, an epidemiologist working at the Karolinska, says: “If Sweden’s strategy is a choice, why view these deaths as inevitable and not preventable?” > . . . > King adds that it is very difficult to assess the science behind Sweden’s strategy since “it has not been transparently presented”. > > “There are clear examples where the Swedish guidelines do not fall in line with either WHO recommendations or available empirical evidence. A good example of this is the recommendation that household contacts of suspected Covid-19 cases do not need to quarantine.” > > Dr Holger Rootzen, one of the earliest detractors of Sweden’s policy and a professor of mathematical statistics at the University of Chalmers, says that Sweden will soon be overwhelmed unless more action in taken. > . . . > Dr Cecilia Soderberg Naucler, an expert in microbial pathogenesis at the Karolinska Institute, believes this trust is unfounded and will soon break. > > “I’m a scientist, I only trust data and the data says we are heading for catastrophe. We are now part of an experiment without informed consent.” Dr. Carina King’s question is the one I’ve been asking myself as I watch this unfold. ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/108 "2020-04-14T14:40:12Z")
Saw this this morning: [Sweden’s Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring](https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/) ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2020, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/109 "2020-04-15T04:22:16Z")
Sadly it seems Sweden’s death rate is back on track after the Easter break. I fear this is not going to go well for them. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2020, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/110 "2020-04-15T11:27:56Z")
> [@Francis\_Vaughan](#): > > Sadly it seems Sweden’s death rate is back on track after the Easter break. I fear this is not going to go well for them. ? They had less than the uptick I would have expected as they do their usual reporting the weekend numbers after weekend and continue to overall follow Switzerland’s curve. Last 7 d 1.08. The last 7d before that 1.19. Switzerland’s last 7d at the same point 1.09. Denmark 1.06. Of course reasonable to fear that it won’t “go well” but not based on that. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2020, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/111 "2020-04-15T11:34:30Z")
I have a feeling tomorrow will cover the remaining gap. The previous weekend patterns have taken a few days to clear. Today’s jump pretty much repeats the pattern of the last few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2020, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/112 "2020-04-15T11:50:01Z")
Exactly yes. Which is why you have to look at the 7 d moving average for them and the fact that with their flat days and their steeper days averaged out the hill overall flattening and shaped like Switzerland’s had ahead of them, going a little below their curve over the 3 days that count as week end and a little above during the 4 days that are not, but overall following it. Which is not great and may be overwhelming their health system given the small capacity they had going into it. Still being written. ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2020, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/113 "2020-04-15T23:22:59Z")
Here in Norway, numbers peaked two weeks ago and have been declining for a week. The epidemic is considered under control. It is possible we may be able to take some load of Swedens system. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2020, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/114 "2020-04-16T00:55:12Z")
I for one am very happy for Norway and also very interested in how Norway re-opens and what happens as they do. If Norway (and Sweden’s other Nordic neighbors) do end up helping Sweden avoid exceeding the surge capacity of their system then I hope that Sweden ends up doing more than saying “Takk så mye!” ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/115 "2020-04-16T01:16:26Z")
As of last week anyway, Sweden still seemed well within hospital capacity from the articles I read. Hope it works for them. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2020, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/116 "2020-04-16T01:50:41Z")
Interesting stat. on coronavirus prevalence I found from [here](https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus): > [@](#): > > In March and April, tests were carried out on 738 randomly chosen people in the Stockholm region who took their own samples. Of these, 18 tested positive for the virus (2.5 percent of the total), 689 negative, and the remaining 31 were unable to be tested as the samples didn’t contain enough material. > > Last week, a similar random test was launched on a random scale to cover the whole of Sweden. Around 4,000 people will be given the option to submit samples. But we don’t yet have a reliable estimate of how many people in Sweden have the virus. I’m not sure how good that ‘taking their own sample’ methodology would be. It’s my understanding that you can get a lot of false negatives even with a professional taking your sample. So if that were the case, presumably the real prevalence would be higher ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2020, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/117 "2020-04-16T04:26:17Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > It should have taken you about 14-21 days to get from 1 case to 128 cases assuming a doubling every 2-3 days (that’s with no mitigation). So if this is all organic growth, then you are still on a glide path to disaster. But I suspect a lot of these cases are not organic to Hoboken but imported from places like NYC. You don’t get to 1000 infected until days 20-30. 26 days to get from 1 to 128 by my figures (based on what’s been reported in the media). After 33 days, we are at 338 cases, 18 deaths. By my calculations, we would reach over 1000 on day 51 on May 3. Then again, with half the town gone and the rest under quarantine, the curve may continue to flatten over the next couple of weeks. Interestingly, most of the cases are in the 17 to 40 range (no doubt a function of the town’s demographics). Although most of the deaths are in 70-80 year-olds. On a positive note, I was able to purchase a 12 roll of Cotonelle toilet paper yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2020, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/118 "2020-04-21T01:50:53Z")
Update. [Bloomberg - Are you a robot?](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective) > [@](#): > > … At no stage did Sweden see a real shortage of medical equipment or hospital capacity, and tents set up as emergency care facilities around the country have mostly remained empty. … “The trend we have seen in recent days, with a more flat curve – where we have many new cases, but not a daily increase – is stabilizing,” Karin Tegmark Wisell, head of the microbiology department at Sweden’s Public Health Authority, said on Friday. “We are seeing the same pattern for patients in intensive care.” … ---
**Author:** ![MaverocK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@MaverocK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaverocK)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/119 "2020-04-21T16:18:08Z")
There is an article titled “The Swedish experiment looks like it’s paying off” in The Spectator: [The Swedish experiment looks like it's paying off | The Spectator](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off) ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2020, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962/120 "2020-04-21T16:43:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Update. [Redirect Notice](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective) Also from the article: > [@](#): > > And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland – a popular vacation destination – dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital. We may have to prepare for the fact that we can’t follow a Swedish plan – it only worked because they are fundamentally better than us. There. I said it. Lol. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweden-do-nothing-approach-good-us-uk-other-countries-early-do-nothing-approach-bad-why/850962.md?page=7)