Not just considering. Uppsala (north of Stockholm, fourth biggest city in Sweden) put this in to place right after they announced it.
Meanwhile, they claim that September 2020 was the least deadly month in Sweden’s history.
Yes, and probably for a lot of Europe and some U.S. States, too. I heard a couple months ago that the UK had negative excess deaths for a time period because of displaced mortality. Some of the people who died during the big surges would have died in the following months anyway from other causes.
A quick look at road death stats to see how this reflects changed behaviour, Australia has had a 5% reduction compared to the same period last year. it continues a longer-term trend to reduce road fatalities but likely to be in part to reduced economic activity and restricted movement directly attributable to covid. Five percent of a lot of needless deaths is a good saving regardless, but should not be used to create a simplistic cost-benefit equation that justifies needless direct covid deaths from other areas of mismanagement.
They’re wrong, actually. I’m looking at the figures from the preliminary register of deaths right now.
(Population statistics , link that says ‘Preliminary Statistics on Death’ if anyone wants a reference)
September 2020 - 6539 deaths
August 2018 - 6514
June 2018 - 6499
July 2019 - 6497
June 2019 - 6452
I know exactly how they made that mistake too - Sweden’s not done counting September deaths yet. That figure of 6539 is preliminary, and on the way up. If someone checked at the start of October then yes, September 2020 probably was beautifully low.
Now, for balance, in fact July August and September this year have had lower than average deaths compared to the past five years. Not much lower but yes, lower. However, so did January and February - they both have about 500 less deaths than their respective averages. Whereas July-September are only about 100 or 200 down from the average.
Basically, before COVID came anywhere near Sweden they were on track for a record low deaths year … the fact that they’ve almost got back there if you restrict your measurement to just after the first wave and before they’ve had a second one, is not that surprising.
I imagine they are counting deaths per capita, and there’s been some population growth?
Regardless, and even with the trends you rightly identify, I think the point is made. And if you are wrong about a second wave, or at least about a particularly deadly one, then I think it might should be a little more surprising than you admit, for those who believe C19 is ‘not just the flu’.
Just to keep you updated, Sweden had their largest daily increase of infections since the start of the pandemic today.
Cite?
What does “largest daily increase of infections” mean? Here’s a chart of their 7-day moving average of cases. Their cases are definitely on the rise, but it’s still ~40% below their peak 7-day average.
Thankfully, deaths remain flat since around the beginning of August, hovering between 1.5 and 3 per day.
Sweden sets new daily COVID-19 case record as infections surge
Missed the edit window.
No, it’s not. I just looked at that chart. On Oct. 26, the average is 1309.7. The previous high looks like it was 1072 on June 20.
When I first opened your chart, the stat was stuck on Oct 15. I had to scroll out to Oct. 27.
Ha, yep. That explains it.
Literally everywhere in the Swedish press today. I didn’t share because few people here can speak Swedish.
As for what it means, it is the largest increase in reported infections in a twenty four hour period. That is exactly (well, translated) how the Swedish press have been reporting it.
I see others have covered this so I won’t bore you with links in a foreign language about that, but I will also offer this from yesterday where Tegnell says that last week there was a 70% increase in cases:
That has been “beaten”. It was 2,128 cases today (the 28th).
Wow.
If you don’t mind sharing, I’m wondering what the mood or thinking of the Swedish people has been lately. It seems like they were happy to go along with the very loose restrictions in the beginning. Then the restrictions got more stringent when infections started to rise. Do people feel like there will be more restrictions? Do most people in the general population want more or less restrictions at this point?
Interview: ‘Sweden could have prevented 4,000 deaths with lockdown’
A math professor modeled that 4,000 lives could have been saved if Sweden had locked down in March like their neighboring countries. However, he says that Sweden would still have had more deaths than their neighboring countries. He says that if they now heed restrictions, there may be fewer deaths due to the level of herd immunity gained earlier.
2128 was the daily record yesterday.
Today we had 2820 cases.
New restrictions (which are officially just “recommendations” as there isn’t the legal framework right now to enforce anything during peacetime, apparently) came in to three regions today, including Stockholm (where I live):
I very much hope that this will finally end the speculation that Sweden’s “hands off” approach works. It doesn’t. Everyone I know is pretty much pretending everything is normal and this is the result.
Worth bearing in mind that many EU countries are experiencing a surge at this time (and have re-imposed lockdowns, in some cases). Most notably France (where the rate of new infections is about 250% of the US rate), but also England and Germany which are all rising rapidly and at all-time highs. So you need to view the Swedish numbers in context.
Most of these models are virtually worthless in this context and are attempts to impress people with impressive-seeming “models” that ultimately amount to nothing. The problem is that all models - no matter how sophisticated mathematically - are only as good as the assumptions which are fed into them, and changing the assumptions can drastically change the results. So such models can be useful in pinning down a number where there is consensus on the underlying assumptions, but where the assumptions themselves are what’s in dispute - as is apparently the case here - then modeling doesn’t add anything.
The context being that last week there was a 70% rise in cases. Yesterday was the record daily number and today we’ve added another 30% to that record.
Most people don’t want restrictions and, frankly, have been acting as if nothing is going on. There is talk here of fatigue from it all and yet my Facebook and Instagram is full of people living their life as normal. Hell, I cancelled on a friend last night who was having a birthday dinner as I decided it was not safe.
Oh and, of course, pretty much no one thinks there is any point to masks. I am routinely the only one in sight wearing one.
And yet here we are.
No, that’s not the context. The context is that this is happening all across Europe. See e.g. European Countries Setting Coronavirus Case Records.
Per the numbers here, Sweden’s per capita 14 day cumulative new cases is lower than any of the European countries that they show (in some cases much much lower).