Boris Johnson announces four-week national Covid lockdown in England
This is where it is kind of useful to be able to read Swedish. Stockholm, where I live, reports every few days on how many people are in acute care, intensive care and care homes. And the past week it has increased with every report. In one week it went from 85 to 148 people. It may not be thousands, but it is clearly different to “So far the increase has not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals.” But I’m guessing whatever I say you’ll just move the goalposts to claim that everything is just fine.
Oh and looking back, on the 9th of October it was 37 people. 37 to 148, a 4x increase.Yeah, “So far the increase has not resulted in more people needing to be admitted to hospitals.”
The one I normally go with is Hong Kong. Land border with China, never went into lockdown, 7.5 million people and only 105 deaths (compared to the 10 million people and nearly 6000 deaths of Sweden).
And it is deeply personal to me as that is where my girlfriend is from and currently is. Covid-19 has kept us apart, we haven’t seen each other since January. Her country got this shit under control, it is mine that is massively fucking up.
My understanding is that you are tested if you go to hospital, but beyond that you get tested if you ask for it (there are clinics to go to that do the testing). With the recent increase in infections apparently Stockholm has now stopped home testing. You used to be able to order a test online from the general healthcare portal 1177.se, but that has now been paused until thursday during which time they are implementing some sort of queue system.
Healthcare in Sweden is pretty regional so finding nationwide statistics is hard. In Stockholm the most recent report, dated 30th of October states that:
This basically translates as “During week 43 (week beginning October 19th) 37,540 tests were analysed, of which 8.4 percent (3,140 tests) were positive. This is a marked increase compared with the previous week.”
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To add to that, as an example I am in a risk group (I am a type 1 diabetic). I have not been approached to even inquire as to whether I want to be tested, antibody tested or whatnot. Not that I personally think I need to be, as I have been pretty much isolating myself from indoors groups of people, but more as an illustration as to how testing is going.
Region Stockholm’s healthcare director says he is very worried after a strong increase in number of hospitalised people in Stockholm:
Drastic increase in the number of hospitalised patients in Värstra Götaland (where Gothenburg is):
Number of people that need hospital care in Uppsala is increasing quickly. Healthcare director is deeply worried:
As that last one is a live blog, here is the relevant bit:
"Antalet bekräftade fall av covid-19 och antalet patienter som behöver sjukhusvård ökar snabbt i Uppsala Län, det visar ny statistik från regionen.
Sjukvårdsdirektören i Region Uppsala säger att man är djupt oroade över utvecklingen."
One day people will realise that Tegnell is full of shit and talking out of his arse.
Did you happen to watch this recent interview Tegnell gave?
Interesting comment from an actuary (?). While I agree that coronavirus models in the beginning of the pandemic were way off because of all the unknowns, without them, it would be harder to make decisions about what to do.
In this particular case, some of the variables are more known, especially in the statement about how many lives would have been saved in Sweden because he’s looking backward with the benefit of hindsight and more information. The amount of lives that were lost (over 5K) is known. The amount of lives in regions close to Sweden is known. The fatality rate currently as versus at the time is known. Putting it together is a theory, but not a wild one, I think.
I’ve been wondering if that will happen. Thank you for all the updates and impressions about what’s going on there.
Could you give a summary or the point he was making? It’s an hour long interview.
FWIW, my assessment of the utility of mathematical models is highly based on my training and experience as an actuary.
To emphasize again - that’s not to say that mathematical models don’t have value. Only that their value is not in proving things when the key assumptions are themselves what’s in dispute.
ISTM that the efficacy of various measures that Sweden might have instituted is at issue here.
Bottom line is that if you already agree that the Swedish approach was a mistake and that the alternative approaches would have saved lives, and you’re just looking to put a number on just how many lives it was that were lost due to the Swedish approach, then you might want to use this guy’s 4,000 life number. But if you’re questioning whether that approach cost lives altogether, then the fact that a mathematician came up with a model which said it cost 4,000 lives doesn’t add anything.
FWIW the source I used was clearly incorrect and ICU numbers can be visualized here:
https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/corona.covid-dagligen
Up from lowest lows in September. Very very low compared to April but clearly rising. Not flat.
Currently about half the per capita deaths 7 day average as Denmark. Might change
I think what frustrates me the most is I am tired of hearing Swedes say that Sweden has taken the scientific approach, which comes with a not so subtle implication that no one else has.
Because for a start they haven’t. They have refused to listen to anything from other countries, with everything hand waved away with yet another expression of Swedish exceptionalism.
I have no doubt that Tegnell can do the science side. He has that history for him. But right now I can’t decide if he just really likes the limelight or if he is simply playing politics, saying whatever he can to make Sweden look good. Because some of the stuff he has said has been just bizarre (I ranted about his views on Sweden’s population density earlier, for example).
From my vantage point, I think that is my objection to the Swedish approach as well, amanset.
If Tegnell had said, look, people are going to get psychologically tired of being perpetually locked down, so we’re just not going to do it because…reasons…I think I could have accepted that on some level.
But Swedish officials have been characterizing this as a scientific approach when it’s clearly not. It flies in the face of what has been known about the mode of transmission since at least February, and it doesn’t seem to have any basis in terms of public health policy - at least not a basis that is widely recognized by other health departments around the world.
The fact that Sweden might not lead the world or even Europe in deaths per capita, hospitalizations per capita - fine, I acknowledge that could be the case. Is Sweden’s situation the worst in the world or the worst in Europe? Maybe not. But that isn’t the question to ask. The question is, could Sweden have lowered the infection rate, lowered the hospitalization rate, and lowered the death rate with more precautions? I think the answer is almost unequivocally yes.
If I were a Swede, I would feel like I’d been cheated out of the taxes that I pay, knowing that more could have been done but just wasn’t.
Note that in much of East Asia they took the “unscientific” route of extreme lockdowns, mandatory mask use, testing and tracing, and they have had some of the best outcomes.
That includes here in China. You can notice that the major news outlets don’t bother to speculate about hidden cases in China any more. Even Trump, who has often suggested China’s cases must be much higher than reported, recently casually conceded that China had “stopped the virus from getting to other parts of China but not to the rest of the world”.
But more is sometimes less. More action means more lockdown means economy tanks, less money for health services and less money for all!
I know we are all distracted by other things today, but 28 new deaths were registered today. Maybe not as many as other countries, but it is a lot when considering that not long ago we were having days with no deaths registered and as far as I can tell July 18th was the last day we had double figures deaths in a day (note: there may not have been double figures deaths today as some of these deaths will have occurred over the past few days, but it is quite likely).
Total deaths at 5997 now. The 6000 barrier will almost certainly be broken tomorrow.
An interesting, and not overly long article on what is currently going in Sweden, seen through the eyes of some Australians working in different parts of its health care system.
A couple more regulations in Sweden. Only 8 people or less allowed at a table and no alcohol after 10 pm.
This guy does a weekly review of the coronavirus in Sweden. It’s pretty exhaustive with charts, graphs and links. This is last week’s review.
He notes that many of the people dying in Sweden lately have been over 80, similar to the first wave.
The Swedish Prime Minister is in quarantine.
He has a section about the recent recommendations/guidelines, notes that there have been no changes in the infection rates but also says that compliance is not very good judging by Google mobility maps and that there was an increase in people using public transport.
The Swedish Public Health Agency continues to reject mask wearing.
He also discusses a book about Tegnell that has recently been released.
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In another article, Stockholm is restricting visits to nursing homes and increasing testing.
DN has article today that apparently says that there has been a downturn in the amount of people moving around. Unfortunately it is behind a paywall.
The Guardian has this today: