This article shows me why Sweden’s approach won’t really have much usefulness as guidance for what other countries can do. Because the results will be measured in hindsight and the goalposts are moving about what success means.
Now that Sweden has had twice as many deaths per million as Denmark, now they’re saying that Denmark will have a spike when they open back up. Maybe. But Sweden’s deaths already happened. Those people can’t come back. Denmark can adjust their restrictions.
Their original reason was that the economy would be less hard hit. But it looks like it was pretty hard hit along with the deaths.
The Prime Minster is on board with tightening the restrictions but the chief epidemiologist is not.
Tegnell says that Denmark may see a sharp spike when regulations are relaxed. Denmark says that there is no right or wrong approach.
Well that last quote is absolutely true. Not “the cure” part , that’s BS, but that the aftermath, history, will be the judge.
Meanwhile the “goalposts” going in with the Sweden Denmark tracks comparisons have been pretty clear from my POV:
Can Sweden with their less draconian approach stay within the ability of their healthcare system to handle their surge? How many more deaths per million will they have than Denmark in the short term, and, over the complete course of the epidemic will they end up with more or not or maybe less? Both will of course have economic impacts but will one have less than the other and with what impacts of that on mortality and morbidity over the rest of the year?
The mitigation flatten the curve idea is to keep the peak from exceeding healthcare ability to handle it and presuming that the total number of deaths is the same otherwise. IF that is the model subscribed to and IF their approach avoids exceeding their capacity then they may do better over the longer term in terms of deaths and damage to their citizens. Big ifs and a big may to be sure.
Sweden seems to have a very strong 7 day cycle in its numbers, so I would be inclined to wait a bit longer. We can hope they have things more under control.
In order to meet the need, tent hospitals were set up in different areas in Sweden.
The number of hospital beds overall has been declining from 2000-2017 in Sweden. In a study from July 2012, Sweden had the second least amount of critical care hospital beds in Europe.
According to this wiki, Sweden has 5.8 ICU beds per 100,000 people and 570 ventilators. Hopefully, Sweden has procured more ventilators since there are now 859 serious/critical patients with the coronavirus as of today.
One might argue that people are not receiving the best care in a makeshift tent hospital with a shortage of ventilators. Dying in a tent hospital so that a segment of the population can dine in restaurants isn’t a trade-off I would choose. I would use the second definition of draconian while you appear to be using the first.
They had less than the uptick I would have expected as they do their usual reporting the weekend numbers after weekend and continue to overall follow Switzerland’s curve. Last 7 d 1.08. The last 7d before that 1.19. Switzerland’s last 7d at the same point 1.09. Denmark 1.06.
Of course reasonable to fear that it won’t “go well” but not based on that.
I have a feeling tomorrow will cover the remaining gap. The previous weekend patterns have taken a few days to clear. Today’s jump pretty much repeats the pattern of the last few weeks.
Exactly yes. Which is why you have to look at the 7 d moving average for them and the fact that with their flat days and their steeper days averaged out the hill overall flattening and shaped like Switzerland’s had ahead of them, going a little below their curve over the 3 days that count as week end and a little above during the 4 days that are not, but overall following it. Which is not great and may be overwhelming their health system given the small capacity they had going into it. Still being written.
Here in Norway, numbers peaked two weeks ago and have been declining for a week. The epidemic is considered under control. It is possible we may be able to take some load of Swedens system.
I for one am very happy for Norway and also very interested in how Norway re-opens and what happens as they do.
If Norway (and Sweden’s other Nordic neighbors) do end up helping Sweden avoid exceeding the surge capacity of their system then I hope that Sweden ends up doing more than saying “Takk så mye!”
Interesting stat. on coronavirus prevalence I found from here:
I’m not sure how good that ‘taking their own sample’ methodology would be. It’s my understanding that you can get a lot of false negatives even with a professional taking your sample. So if that were the case, presumably the real prevalence would be higher
26 days to get from 1 to 128 by my figures (based on what’s been reported in the media).
After 33 days, we are at 338 cases, 18 deaths.
By my calculations, we would reach over 1000 on day 51 on May 3. Then again, with half the town gone and the rest under quarantine, the curve may continue to flatten over the next couple of weeks.
Interestingly, most of the cases are in the 17 to 40 range (no doubt a function of the town’s demographics). Although most of the deaths are in 70-80 year-olds.
On a positive note, I was able to purchase a 12 roll of Cotonelle toilet paper yesterday.
We may have to prepare for the fact that we can’t follow a Swedish plan – it only worked because they are fundamentally better than us. There. I said it. Lol.