# Sweet, republicans would lose the house if the elections were held today **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2013, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532 "2013-10-06T22:03:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/21 "2013-10-07T16:52:09Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > There are many conservatives/Republicans who [honestly believe the government \*is \*coming to get them.](http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/954/dcor%20rpp%20fg%20memo%20100313%20final.pdf) :dubious: Yeah, when’s it gonna get around to that, anyway?! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/22 "2013-10-07T18:03:21Z")
Or, as the [Unitarian Jihad](http://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/carroll/article/JON-CARROLL-3324002.php) states, "We have heard from enough sincere people to last a lifetime already. Just because you believe it’s true doesn’t make it true. Just because your motives are pure doesn’t mean you are not doing harm. Get a dog, or comfort someone in a nursing home, or just feed the birds in the park. Play basketball. Lighten up. The world is not out to get you, except in the sense that the world is out to get everyone. " ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/23 "2013-10-07T18:17:42Z")
I’m surprised these guys aren’t calling themselves ’ rebels’ yet. Last time a group of small government conservatives sacrificed the Republic for their ideology, they were singing Dixie as a national anthem. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/24 "2013-10-07T18:43:17Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > There are many conservatives/Republicans who [honestly believe the government \*is \*coming to get them.](http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/954/dcor%20rpp%20fg%20memo%20100313%20final.pdf) The IRS, the FBI, the NSA…they honestly believe they’re fucked. That’s why they’re acting with such desperation right now; they feel cornered and they’re trying to survive what they believe is a hostile government. > > From the focus group report I linked to: Very revealing, actually, in their analysis of the Republican base: > [@](#): > > We know that Evangelicals are the largest bloc in the base, with the Tea Party very strong as well. For them, President Obama is a “liar” and “manipulator” who has fooled the country. It is hard to miss the deep disdain—they say the president is a socialist, the “worst president in history,” and “anti-American.” > > For all that, this is a deeply divided base. Moderates are a quarter of those who identify Republican, and they are very conscious of their discomfort with other parts of the party base. Their distance begins with social issues, like gay marriage and homosexuality, but it is also evident on immigration and climate change. Fiscal conservatives feel isolated in the party. > > Evangelicals who feel most threatened by trends embrace the Tea Party because they are the ones who are fighting back. They are very in tune politically, but the Tea Party base is very libertarian and not very interested in fighting gay marriage. > > Republicans shutdown the government to defund or delay Obamacare. This goes to the heart of Republican base thinking about the essential political battle. They think they face a victorious Democratic Party that is intent on expanding government to increase dependency and therefore electoral support. It starts with food stamps and unemployment benefits; expands further if you legalize the illegals; but insuring the uninsured dramatically grows those dependent on government. They believe this is an electoral strategy—not just a political ideology or economic philosophy. If Obamacare happens, the Republican Party may be lost, in their view. > > And while few explicitly talk about Obama in racial terms, the base supporters are very conscious of being white in a country with growing minorities. Their party is losing to a Democratic Party of big government whose goal is to expand programs that mainly benefit minorities. Race remains very much alive in the politics of the Republican Party. > > These are strong common currents in the Republican base, but the thinking and passions are very distinct and telling among the key blocs – and those have consequences for those who seek to lead.2 > > \* Evangelicals. Social issues are central for Evangelicals and they feel a deep sense of cultural and political loss. They believe their towns, communities, and schools are suffering from a deep “culture rot” that has invaded from the outside. The central focus here is homosexuality, but also the decline of homogenous small towns. They like the Tea Party because they stand up to the Democrats. > >  Tea Party. Big government, Obama, the loss of liberty, and decline of responsibility are central to the Tea Party worldview. Obama’s America is an unmitigated evil based on big government, regulations, and dependency. They are not focused on social issues at all. They like the Tea Party because it is getting “back to basics” and believe it has the potential to reshape the GOP. > >  Moderates. Moderates are deeply concerned with the direction of the country and believe Obama has taken it down the wrong path economically. They are centrally focused on market-based economics, small government, and eliminating waste and inefficiency. They are largely open to progressive social policies, including on gay marriage and immigration. They disdain the Tea Party and have a hard time taking Fox News seriously.\* > > 2 We selected these three groups (Evangelicals, non-Evangelical Tea Party adherents, and moderates) because combined they represent almost all of today’s Republican partisans. The focus group locations, demographic characteristics, and participants’ ideological characteristics were all selected based on statistical analysis of our first survey for this project. While these are focus groups, and not statistically representative, this analysis gives a real, robust, and serious snapshot of who these Republicans are, how they think, and what matters to them. “Moderates,” in their analysis, are approximately one-quarter of the base. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/25 "2013-10-07T19:11:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So far though, even with many ACA provisions already in effect, the law has become LESS popular. And the provisions in effect now were the most uncontroversial ones. Do you have evidence which specific provisions of the law are unpopular? Because what I’ve seen is that one provision–mandated insurance–is somewhat unpopular, but everything else is very popular, and that many people who dislike the law think it’s not enough, and that not many people want the law to be repealed entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/26 "2013-10-07T19:27:42Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Republicans aren’t afraid of the dreadful disaster to befall helpless Americans by way of ObamaCare, they didn’t care before, why would anyone believe they care now? What they are afraid of is that it will work. Exactly. I suspect a great deal of the oppositions is from people listening to all the predictions of utter disaster. Ted Cruz and Fox News wouldn’t like now, would they? Thus the “OMG, a website is unavailable, what a disaster!” crap we’ve been hearing. In a few months when all is running smoothly the forecasts of disaster will seem pretty silly. And at least some of the people paying more will realize that they are also getting more. And if they run on repeal, they will find out the endowment effect has kicked in. This says that something you own has more value to you than the same thing which you do not own. It is going to be hard to convince people who now have insurance that this is bad. Just like Social Security. People who have it know the Ponzi game bullshit for what it is. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/27 "2013-10-07T21:35:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The poll is useful in that it shows how damaging the shutdown is for Republicans. But it’s also 2013, and by 2014, health care, guns, and immigration could be bigger issues. guns won’t be a bigger issue - its already fading pretty fast - and people long ago picked sides - which is one largish zealot side, a really big majority “don’t care TOO much” (which includes the "as long as I keep my shotgun for hunting) and a smaller zealot side on the anti. Immigration won’t be a huge deal - again, those lines have been drawn. Ted Cruz is trying to stir the anti-immigration pot, but its unlikely to get much support - Hispanics are simply too big a voting block in the general election. Health care - by the time the election comes around, the exchanges will be up and Obamacare will be a fact of life. You will move a few people with “I got screwed by higher premiums” - but frankly, most of us have seen such huge premium increases year after year that we have a hard time stomaching the claim by insurance companies that this one is the ACA (yeah, what’s been your excuse for the past TEN years). Some others will move because someone they know - or themselves - was able to get insurance when they previously couldn’t. Maybe something else, but I don’t see those three moving too many people from their 2012 positions. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/28 "2013-10-07T22:32:00Z")
More likely the biggest impact will be a throw the bums all out wave given the huge disgust for Congress in general. Approval rating in the latest Gallup poll was down to 11% which is just one point above the worst score Gallup has ever recorded. That said what we need to know is how disgusted voters are in partcular districts: those few which might somehow be considered “swing”; and those in which the seat might be safely GOP but an incumbent Tea Partier might be primaried from the center Right. I’d settle for less crazy dysfunctional. The polls of the op is nothing to get excited about but [the list of districts they looked at](http://www.pensitoreview.com/2013/10/06/poll-finds-approval-below-50-for-gop-house-reps-in-23-of-24-swing-districts/) do look like they actually could swing pretty easily with a just a bit of throw the bums out mindset. Enough to flip it? Seems like a long shot. This [538](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/27/as-swing-districts-dwindle-can-a-divided-house-stand/?_r=0) from nearly a year ago was on target. > [@](#): > > The district boundaries that give Republicans such strength in the House may also impede the party’s ability to compromise, reducing their ability to appeal to the broader-based coalitions of voters so as to maximize their chances of winning Senate and presidential races. If so, however, that could mean divided government more often than not in the years ahead, with Republicans usually controlling the House while Democrats usually hold the Senate, the presidency, or both. As partisanship continues to increase, a divided government may increasingly mean a dysfunctional one. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/29 "2013-10-08T22:14:42Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > guns won’t be a bigger issue - its already fading pretty fast - and people long ago picked sides - which is one largish zealot side, a really big majority “don’t care TOO much” (which includes the "as long as I keep my shotgun for hunting) and a smaller zealot side on the anti. > > Immigration won’t be a huge deal - again, those lines have been drawn. Ted Cruz is trying to stir the anti-immigration pot, but its unlikely to get much support - Hispanics are simply too big a voting block in the general election. > > Health care - by the time the election comes around, the exchanges will be up and Obamacare will be a fact of life. You will move a few people with “I got screwed by higher premiums” - but frankly, most of us have seen such huge premium increases year after year that we have a hard time stomaching the claim by insurance companies that this one is the ACA (yeah, what’s been your excuse for the past TEN years). Some others will move because someone they know - or themselves - was able to get insurance when they previously couldn’t. > > Maybe something else, but I don’t see those three moving too many people from their 2012 positions. What might, then? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/30 "2013-10-08T22:17:38Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > More likely the biggest impact will be a throw the bums all out wave given the huge disgust for Congress in general. How does that work, though? Most voters, I think, even if disgusted by their own Representative, would still rather vote for him/her than switch parties, and a lot of districts are safe seats for one party or the other. If a real challenge does not happen in the primary stage, then it’s not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/31 "2013-10-08T23:31:09Z")
We are talking about the districts that are either swing or only somewhat lean. There are fewer of them than there used to be to be sure but they still exist. Some of those districts even lean D but have an R in the House as a result of the same disgust last time. Look up some those in that link I provided above in the [Partisan Voting Index (PVI)](http://cookpolitical.com/application/writable/uploads/2012_PVI_by_District.pdf), by how they went in the last Presidential election, by polled party ID … these are the districts that are not safe. They have a sizable number of people who are willing to shift one way or the other. For kicks I’ll sart on the last in the list. WI 7 PVI even, in '08 went for Obama by 8, in '12 Romney by 3. VA 2 PVI R +5, in '08 Obama by 2, in '12 Obama by 2. PA 8 PVI D +1, in '08 Obama by 8, in '12 Obama-Romney 49 and change each. You can keep looking on your own if you want but the flavor is clear. There are plenty of people ready to give a different bum a chance each cycle in enough districts to matter. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/32 "2013-10-11T04:59:51Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > Health care - by the time the election comes around, the exchanges will be up and Obamacare will be a fact of life. You will move a few people with “I got screwed by higher premiums” - but frankly, most of us have seen such huge premium increases year after year that we have a hard time stomaching the claim by insurance companies that this one is the ACA (yeah, what’s been your excuse for the past TEN years). Some others will move because someone they know - or themselves - was able to get insurance when they previously couldn’t. > > . If Avik Roy, a National Review contributor, is right, then premiums will rise 99% for men. If that’s true, then there’s no way to write that off as just your typical increase in premiums. Even if he’s off by half, it’s a huge increase. Given all the ways to measure premiums, it’ll be hard to determine exactly how much they went up nationally, but individual voters who see big increases will be very, very unhappy. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/33 "2013-10-11T05:04:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Avik Roy, a National Review contributor, is right . . . But, such never are, are they? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/34 "2013-10-11T05:08:49Z")
Not always right, but not always wrong either. The fact that the administration and its supporters have chosen to use the “lower than expected” metric for measuring insurance prices on the exchanges speaks volumes. Problem is, voters aren’t going to judge their premiums by what the CBO predicted. They are going to compare them to what they paid before. As was pointed out, a typical 10% increase or whatever can be written off as what’s been going on for 10 years. Anywhere from 20%-90% would be tough to pass off as not due to ACA. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/35 "2013-10-11T05:25:32Z")
> [@](#): > > Single mothers deprived of WIC baby formula during shutdown are launching a 7-figure ad buy against lawmakers, sponsoring ads in Politico. > [@](#): > > Just kidding. They’re just screwed and helpless. Tweet of the Day at _DailyKos_ ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/36 "2013-10-11T05:32:21Z")
They have votes. If only they’d use them when Barack Obama isn’t on top of the ticket. If they don’t, then they can’t blame big moneyed interests. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/37 "2013-10-11T10:23:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not always right, but not always wrong either. The fact that the administration and its supporters have chosen to use the “lower than expected” metric for measuring insurance prices on the exchanges speaks volumes. Problem is, voters aren’t going to judge their premiums by what the CBO predicted. They are going to compare them to what they paid before. As was pointed out, a typical 10% increase or whatever can be written off as what’s been going on for 10 years. Anywhere from 20%-90% would be tough to pass off as not due to ACA. No, they’re going to judge their happiness on the fact that they can actually buy insurance now. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/38 "2013-10-11T10:35:01Z")
Sure, if it’s affordable where before it was not. Otherwise all you’ve done to these people is make them buy what they found unaffordable to begin with. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/39 "2013-10-11T11:38:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Sure, if it’s affordable where before it was not. Otherwise all you’ve done to these people is make them buy what they found unaffordable to begin with. Do you really believe the things you write? This one is so disconnected from any real comprehension that I have to wonder. The whole point was to fundamentally change the structure of healthcare coverage in order to reduce costs and increase affordable access to people - to insure the uninsured. It would indeed be stupid if the idea was just to make peolple buy insurance they couldn’t afford. And it is working. Premiums are coming down, especially in states that aren’t actively working to fuck things up for Obamacare. And people are getting affordable care and are happy with it. It is the nightmare scenario that the right is trying so desperately hard to forestall. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/40 "2013-10-11T11:52:28Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Do you really believe the things you write? This one is so disconnected from any real comprehension that I have to wonder. Is there an argument in here somewhere? > [@](#): > > The whole point was to fundamentally change the structure of healthcare coverage in order to reduce costs and increase affordable access to people - to insure the uninsured. It would indeed be stupid if the idea was just to make peolple buy insurance they couldn’t afford. That’s what adding mandate upon mandate does to the price of insurance. You make them provide more services, it raises the cost. > [@](#): > > And it is working. Premiums are coming down, especially in states that aren’t actively working to fuck things up for Obamacare. And people are getting affordable care and are happy with it. It is the nightmare scenario that the right is trying so desperately hard to forestall. This statement lacks evidence. Premiums are not coming down anywhere, they are rising “less than expected”. As for people getting affordable care, who? Things don’t go into effect until January. I’ll be charitable and call this a future prediction. I’m not interested in litigating whether or not it will come true or not, just pointing out that if insurance costs more for people, they will be angry. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532.md?page=3)