# Sweet, republicans would lose the house if the elections were held today **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2013, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532 "2013-10-06T22:03:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/41 "2013-10-11T12:52:33Z")
Why, yes, that is an unassailable position! And as soon as you provide any actual evidence that this is so, or will be so, you will have a point! We wait with bated breath… ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/42 "2013-10-11T14:02:56Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I miss 538 and look forward anxiously to its reboot specifically for a critical analysis of polls like this. I suspect Nate would be a bit dismissive of concluding too much from these numbers. Assume it is true your moderate Republican is still likely even more worried about being primaried than they are about the general so I am not so sure how much it will motivate anyone. The issue is whether or not they can find their spines and place love of country above fear of being primaried. Ask and ye will receive: [http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/\_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown/](http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown/) > [@adaher](#): > > If Avik Roy, a National Review contributor, is right This is the same Avik Roy who judged comparisons in rates between Obamacare and before Obamacare by looking at the rates offered before looking at health concerns on insurance company websites? [That guy?](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/01/the-shocking-truth-about-obamacares-rate-shock/) Yeah, excuse me for not assuming that his math is on point, especially given the sheer bulk of extremely partisan (read: dishonest) math being pushed against Obamacare. In fact, I think it’s fair to say that it’s more reasonable to assume that he’s talking out of his ass, given his track record. > [@](#): > > Sure, if it’s affordable where before it was not. Otherwise all you’ve done to these people is make them buy what they found unaffordable to begin with. Or, you know, allowed them to buy what they previously were completely incapable of buying for literally any price. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/43 "2013-10-11T14:38:15Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > Or, you know, allowed them to buy what they previously were completely incapable of buying for literally any price. Aha! See? Previously those people paid **nothing** for their insurance premiums! Therefore, anything they have to pay now represents an increase! And therefore Obama lies about everything! It’s so simple! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/44 "2013-10-11T16:24:22Z")
People who had less comprehensive plans that they liked don’t get to keep their insurance, so yeah, he lied. He also said, repeatedly, that Americans would see an average $2500 in savings on their premiums. Big fat lie. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/45 "2013-10-11T16:45:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > People who had less comprehensive plans that they liked don’t get to keep their insurance, so yeah, he lied. Wrong- the President doesn’t control what private companies do- if companies change their insurance plans for their employees (as mine has almost every year I’ve worked for it), that’s not the President’s fault. His point was that the ACA does not order anyone or any company to change insurance plans for a particular employee (which was a false accusation by opponents), and it doesn’t. What the President said is accurate in the context he used. > [@](#): > > He also said, repeatedly, that Americans would see an average $2500 in savings on their premiums. Big fat lie. Wrong again- the various parts of the bill meant to control costs have not all been implemented together for long enough to take effect yet- we don’t know exactly how much savings there will be. Come back in a few years. Before your next post, read every sentence you write, at least twice, and make sure what you say is factually accurate (or just qualify it as your opinion). Please. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/46 "2013-10-11T16:55:21Z")
We can fairly assume that the complete lack of reliable citation marks it as opinion. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/47 "2013-10-11T16:57:37Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Wrong- the President doesn’t control what private companies do- if companies change their insurance plans for their employees (as mine has almost every year I’ve worked for it), that’s not the President’s fault. His point was that the ACA does not order anyone or any company to change insurance plans for a particular employee (which was a false accusation by opponents), and it doesn’t. What the President said is accurate in the context he used. some existing plans are not ACA compliant. You will pay the tax if you stick with them. > [@](#): > > Wrong again- the various parts of the bill meant to control costs have not all been implemented together for long enough to take effect yet- we don’t know exactly how much savings there will be. Come back in a few years. Ah, okay, victory over health care costs is just around the corner. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/48 "2013-10-11T16:58:45Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > We can fairly assume that the complete lack of reliable citation marks it as opinion. There was no citation for Hentor’s claims. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/49 "2013-10-11T17:00:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There was no citation for Hentor’s claims. Yes, but you’re not **Hentor**. Or, more precisely, **Hentor** isn’t you. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/50 "2013-10-11T17:04:17Z")
Hentor made unsupported claims. I said they were BS, and since there was no cite, I’m on firm ground. Then elucidator comes along and asks for to prove Hentor’s statements are BS with a cite. That makes no sense. Am I misunderstanding something? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/51 "2013-10-11T17:06:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Hentor made unsupported claims. I said they were BS, and since there was no cite, I’m on firm ground. Then elucidator comes along and asks for to prove Hentor’s statements are BS with a cite. That makes no sense. > > Am I misunderstanding something? Yes. Yes you are. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/52 "2013-10-11T17:14:35Z")
What mistake is he making? Can Hentor provide cites to back up his claim? Are both talking out of their asses? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/53 "2013-10-11T17:17:46Z")
BTW, I’ll cite whatever you guys want, if I know what I’m supposed to be citing. Apparently Hentor’s claims that people are happy with ACA right now and that premiums are going down is an uncontroversial claim here requiring no evidence. So tell me what you want to cite, since apparently my claims actually were controversial, and I’ll be happy to do it. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/54 "2013-10-11T17:25:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > BTW, I’ll cite whatever you guys want, if I know what I’m supposed to be citing. Apparently Hentor’s claims that people are happy with ACA right now and that premiums are going down is an uncontroversial claim here requiring no evidence. So tell me what you want to cite, since apparently my claims actually were controversial, and I’ll be happy to do it. > **[Health Plan Cost for New Yorkers Set to Fall 50% (Published 2013)](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/17/health/health-plan-cost-for-new-yorkers-set-to-fall-50.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)** > > Individuals buying health insurance on their own will see their premiums tumble next year in New York State, and supporters of the health care overhaul credit the online purchasing exchanges the law created. > [@](#): > > Individuals buying health insurance on their own will see their premiums tumble next year in New York State as changes under the federal health care law take effect, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced on Wednesday. > > State insurance regulators say they have approved rates for 2014 that are at least 50 percent lower on average than those currently available in New York. Beginning in October, individuals in New York City who now pay $1,000 a month or more for coverage will be able to shop for health insurance for as little as $308 monthly. With federal subsidies, the cost will be even lower. [http://about.bgov.com/2013-10-08/exchange-competition-cuts-health-insurance-costs-bgov-insight/](http://about.bgov.com/2013-10-08/exchange-competition-cuts-health-insurance-costs-bgov-insight/) > [@](#): > > Competition among insurers offering coverage through federal exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act is driving down the premiums charged in the new marketplaces by as much as one third, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis. > > The analysis of rates for individual policies in the 36 states where the federal government will run or largely run the exchanges shows an unmistakable pattern: The larger the number of insurers operating in a given market, the lower the price of coverage. > **[Despite GOP Resistance, Obamacare Competition 'Robust' Among Health Plans](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2013/10/06/despite-gop-resistance-obamacare-competition-robust-among-health-plans/)** > > Competition among health plans on exchanges operated by the federal government under the Affordable Care Act is "robust" thanks in part to participation by the nation's Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Despite critics who... > [@](#): > > Despite critics who said consumer choice of health insurance plans would be lacking on the newly launched marketplaces under the Affordable Care Act, competition is “robust,” particularly in markets where Republican-leaning states decided against operating their own exchanges, industry analysts and insurers say. […] > > The Obama administration said such competition has helped premiums be about 16 percent lower than earlier estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. Consumers choose from an average of 53 health plans from the federal marketplace and have a choice of at least two insurance companies. [http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=69D17A5D-4E91-44B5-8200-24512CE2C10A](http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=69D17A5D-4E91-44B5-8200-24512CE2C10A) > [@](#): > > States with new member-owned CO-OP health plans as part of Obamacare have premiums that are more than 8 percent lower than states that don’t, a new study shows. > > The Consumer Operated and Oriented Plans, with startup money loaned by the health care law, have zero or very few customers yet, given all the problems with the sign-up system. But they are going toe-to-toe with traditional insurers on the exchanges in 22 states, introducing new competition to insurance markets. And there’s some early evidence that they may be helping to lower costs. > **[Two Oregon insurers rethink 2014 premiums as state posts first-ever rate...](https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2013/05/two_oregon_insurers_reconsider.html)** > > Consumers and small businesses can now compare proposed health premiums easily, foreshadowing more expansive changes in October. Some insurers are changing course. > [@](#): > > On Thursday, a comparison of proposed 2014 health premiums became public online, causing two insurers to request do-overs to lower their rates even before the state determines whether they’re justified. > > The unusual development was sparked by a comparison that used to be impossible because plan benefits varied so widely. But under the federal reforms that take effect Jan. 1, health insurance is mandated and every insurer must offer certain standard plans. I think you ought to reconsider where you get your information. Then again, lots of people have told you that before. Nothing seems to change. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/55 "2013-10-11T17:27:14Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > What mistake is he making? Can Hentor provide cites to back up his claim? Are both talking out of their asses? This feels like a Fox News chyron. Am I talking out of my ass? Is **DSeid** woefully ignorant of the news? Is **DSeid** a secret Kenyan terrorist? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/56 "2013-10-11T17:43:14Z")
Just that his asking for you to cite your claim did not seem so crazy and only asking him to seemed unfair. Yes, your track record is better, (and you have now done so) but fairness requires that both sides of a discussion are held to the same standards. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/57 "2013-10-11T17:53:03Z")
As for people being happy… > **[Uninsured Find More Success via Health Exchanges Run by States (Published 2013)](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/09/us/politics/uninsured-find-more-success-via-health-exchanges-run-by-states.html)** > > The experience is in stark contrast to reports of widespread technical problems that have hampered enrollment in the online marketplace run by the federal government. > [@](#): > > “I am thrilled,” Ms. Skrebes said, referring to her policy. “It’s affordable, good coverage. And the Web site of the Minnesota exchange was pretty simple to use, pretty straightforward. The language was really clear.” [http://thinkprogress.org/health/2013/10/02/2721501/butch-matthews-obamacare-convert/](http://thinkprogress.org/health/2013/10/02/2721501/butch-matthews-obamacare-convert/) > [@](#): > > Butch Matthews is a 61-year-old former small business owner from Little Rock, Arkansas who used to wake up every morning at 4 A.M. to deliver canned beverages to retailers before retiring in 2010. A lifelong Republican, he was heavily skeptical of the Affordable Care Act when it first passed. “I did not think that Obamacare was going to be a good plan, I did not think that it was going to help me at all,” he told ThinkProgress over the phone. > > But after doing a little research, Matthews eventually realized how much the law could help him. And on Tuesday, his local Blue Cross Blue Shield (BCBS) provider confirmed that he would be able to buy a far better plan than his current policy while saving at least $13,000 per year through Arkansas’ Obamacare marketplace.[…] > > “I still am a very strong Republican, but this… I’m so happy that this came along,” he continued. “Our home is paid for, vehicle’s paid for, this is our expense that we have. We have more expense on medical care than everything else put together, so this is going to be a great help for us.” Read that last quote again. That is what makes Republicans’ collective butt pucker, and that is the entirety of the reason behind the shutdown tantrum. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/58 "2013-10-11T17:56:49Z")
I actually didn’t ask him for a cite.🙂 Anyway, counter-cites: > **[Where Obamacare premiums will soar](https://money.cnn.com/2013/08/06/news/economy/obamacare-premiums/index.html)** > > Residents of Indiana, Ohio, Florida and other states will likely see their health insurance premiums go up under Obamacare. Get ready to shell out more money for individual health insurance under Obamacare … in some states, that is. While many residents in New York and California may see sizable decreases in their premiums, Americans in many places could face significant increases if they buy insurance through state-based exchanges next year. That’s because these people live in states where insurers were allowed to sell bare-bones plans and exclude the sick, which has kept costs down. Under Obamacare, insurers must offer a package of essential benefits – including maternity, mental health and medications – and must cover all who apply. But more comprehensive coverage may lead to more expensive insurance plans. > **[Obamacare’s winners and losers in Bay Area](https://www.mercurynews.com/2013/10/05/obamacares-winners-and-losers-in-bay-area/)** > > Obamacare’s winners and losers in Bay Area [http://www.chron.com/business/article/Family-insurance-in-jeopardy-at-small-companies-4716792.php](http://www.chron.com/business/article/Family-insurance-in-jeopardy-at-small-companies-4716792.php) nsurance companies have already warned small business customers that premiums could rise 20 percent or more in 2014 under the Affordable Care Act. That’s making some owners consider not paying for coverage for workers’ families, even though insurance is a benefit that helps companies attract and retain top talent. If more small business owners decide to stop paying for family coverage, it will accelerate a trend that started as the cost of health insurance soared in recent years. Under the law, companies with 50 or more employees are required to provide affordable coverage for their workers. They also must offer health insurance to employees’ dependents, but don’t have to pay for it. And they aren’t required to offer insurance at all to employees’ spouses. Mike Shoop got a taste of what buying insurance will be like under the ACA when he shopped for a policy that will take effect Sept. 1. His insurer quoted premiums 8 percent higher than his current policy, and warned Shoop that he’d get an even larger increase a year from now. Shoop, who owns a debt collection company in Greeley, Colo., said he may have to cut back on insurance for his employees’ families if rates keep soaring. > **[PolitiFact - AFP ad says premiums will rise under Obamacare](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2013/jul/16/americans-prosperity/afp-ad-says-premiums-will-rise-under-obamacare/)** > > The conservative organization that spent more than $33 million in the last election to defeat President Barack Obama and The most detailed supporting document focuses on the group that represents just 7 percent of today’s insurance market. The individual market is the one most likely to see rate hikes but the ACA provides tax credits to cushion the impact of those hikes. While most states have yet to announce their final rates, every expert we spoke to agreed that some people will pay more. > **[When Health Insurance Sticker Shock Meets The 'Death Spiral'](https://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2013/09/23/when-health-insurance-sticker-shock-meets-the-death-spiral/)** > > The coming ObamaCare health insurance sticker shock is important, but it could pale in comparison if the "death spiral" kicks in. The fact is, some people will pay less, some people will pay more. I never argued that it was a sure thing that premiums would go up, only that IF they did, voters would be very upset at having to pay more. Hentor claimed that premiums were going down, which while supported by his cites, his cites do not tell the whole story. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/59 "2013-10-11T18:23:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …While most states have yet to announce their final rates, every expert we spoke to agreed that some people will pay more… Yes. Guess who they are! Go ahead, take a wild stab at it! ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/60 "2013-10-11T18:24:23Z")
Only one of adaher’s cites has actual evidence, and that is from an anecdotal experience for one guy in CA. I don’t deny that anecdote, but I suspect there is info being left out about his insurance plan. Otherwise, his evidence is from July or August, or is an opinion piece. I would prefer to see evidence that costs have actually gone up. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532.md?page=4)