# Sweet, republicans would lose the house if the elections were held today **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 6, 2013, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532 "2013-10-06T22:03:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/61 "2013-10-11T18:30:21Z")
I think the Obamanistas are following the same strategy as Microsoft did for Window’s 95. Put it out as both a product and a massive beta test. Listen to the complaints, and fix them. Its the “tinkering” approach much favored by liberals. They have the charming belief that with enough tinkering, you can convert a diesel powered proletariat crusher into a solar-powered rainbow extruder. But yes, get it in place, however clumsily, and make the fixes that show themselves. But every single person who benefits from this is a potential loyalist. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/62 "2013-10-11T19:38:56Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I think the Obamanistas are following the same strategy as Microsoft did for Window’s 95. :mad: Look, comparing Obama with Hitler or the Antichrist is one thing, but Bill Gates?! Don’t you **dare** go **there!** ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/63 "2013-10-11T20:00:27Z")
I mentioned this over in my other thread, but Sam Wang thinks this is starting to have a genuine effect on Republican chances to hold the house. He also says, refering to his previous article, that it looks like the gerrymandered districts have swung against the Republicans even more than the non-gerrymandered districts have. (Those would be the anti-government chickens you hear in the roosts, I believe.) [http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/10/a-prediction-for-2014-house-elections-take-1/](http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/10/a-prediction-for-2014-house-elections-take-1/) > [@](#): > > Provisionally, it looks like the following: \*\*In a little over a week, the shutdown has increased the probability of a Democratic House takeover in 2014 from 13% to as high as 50%. \*\* Emphasis his. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/64 "2013-10-11T20:17:34Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > He also says, refering to his previous article, that it looks like the gerrymandered districts have swung against the Republicans even more than the non-gerrymandered districts have. That is probably because those districts were gerrymandered using the “cracking” approach, dividing Democrats so that they are a minority in as many districts as possible – the result being, the gerrymandered districts have a registered-Pub majority but are **not** solid-red, therefore it is possible although unusual for them to be in serious play. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/65 "2013-10-11T20:18:55Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > (Those would be the anti-government chickens you hear in the roosts, I believe.) The ones the Pubs are fucking? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/66 "2013-10-11T20:57:14Z")
Sam Wang’s analysis … now _that’s_ what I’m talking 'bout. Quantifies the typical degree of uncertainty between polls now and Nov '13 and does some serious number crunching not pontificating. Da man! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/67 "2013-10-11T21:01:20Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I think the Obamanistas are following the same strategy as Microsoft did for Window’s 95. Put it out as both a product and a massive beta test. Listen to the complaints, and fix them. Its the “tinkering” approach much favored by liberals. They have the charming belief that with enough tinkering, you can convert a diesel powered proletariat crusher into a solar-powered rainbow extruder. > > But yes, get it in place, however clumsily, and make the fixes that show themselves. But every single person who benefits from this is a potential loyalist. If I have trouble with my Obamacare insurance, do I have to turn it off and start it back up again? I hate it when that happens!! ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/68 "2013-10-11T22:13:07Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The ones the Pubs are fucking? I have it on good authority that those chickens are non-consenting. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/69 "2013-10-11T22:56:35Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > If I have trouble with my Obamacare insurance, do I have to turn it off and start it back up again? I hate it when that happens!! Well, heck, John, just close Netscape Navigator and AOL, you should be fine. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2013, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/70 "2013-10-12T02:46:28Z")
> [@](#): > > I have it on good authority that those chickens are non-consenting. But are they _legitimately_ non-consenting? ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2013, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/71 "2013-10-12T16:17:58Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But are they _legitimately_ non-consenting? When I saw it I said to myself, “If nobody else said it, I’m gonna”. Damn it. Beat me to it. ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/72 "2013-10-13T11:24:46Z")
I understand Adaher’s point but think he’s missing the bigger picture. I would see both a rise in my insurance costs and a significant decrease in my insurance costs if I were able to shop on the exchange. I pay 316 a month, nearly $4,000 a year, for a family of four with 75/25% coverage- insurance that I get through my employer. But, my employer also pays the other 75% of the cost of insurance. My insurance really costs $17,000 a year. (I find many people don’t realize that their employer picks up the rest of the cost. Most folks think insurance costs whatever comes out of their checks. ) I priced insurance on the exchange a week or so ago. My family cost for a year would drop to about $7,000 for a 70/30 plan. I would qualify for a 12% subsidy (which is a tax break, not a cash gift or refund. I thought all Republicans were pro tax cuts.), bringing the cost per year closer to $6,000. So while my personal cost would indeed go up if I were to buy on the exchange as I would pay the full price myself, the total cost of my insurance would drop by over $10,000 a year. That is a pretty impressive decrease in the cost of insurance to me. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/73 "2013-10-13T11:35:25Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > I understand Adaher’s point but think he’s missing the bigger picture. > > I would see both a rise in my insurance costs and a significant decrease in my insurance costs if I were able to shop on the exchange. > > I pay 316 a month, nearly $4,000 a year, for a family of four with 75/25% coverage- insurance that I get through my employer. > > But, my employer also pays the other 75% of the cost of insurance. My insurance really costs $17,000 a year. (I find many people don’t realize that their employer picks up the rest of the cost. Most folks think insurance costs whatever comes out of their checks. ) > > I priced insurance on the exchange a week or so ago. > > My family cost for a year would drop to about $7,000 for a 70/30 plan. I would qualify for a 12% subsidy (which is a tax break, not a cash gift or refund. I thought all Republicans were pro tax cuts.), bringing the cost per year closer to $6,000. > > So while my personal cost would indeed go up if I were to buy on the exchange as I would pay the full price myself, the total cost of my insurance would drop by over $10,000 a year. > > That is a pretty impressive decrease in the cost of insurance to me. It can get pretty complicated. Did you compare equivalent plans? I would pay less if I got a bronze or silver plan, but my current insurance is closer to gold/platinum level. I’d have to pay more for that than I pay now. You are quoting a silver plan, right, since you said 70/30? That’s actually a bit weak for employer insurance in my experience. ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/74 "2013-10-13T14:15:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It can get pretty complicated. Did you compare equivalent plans? I would pay less if I got a bronze or silver plan, but my current insurance is closer to gold/platinum level. I’d have to pay more for that than I pay now. You are quoting a silver plan, right, since you said 70/30? That’s actually a bit weak for employer insurance in my experience. Yes, it was a silver plan, which is 5 percent different from my current coverage. I timed out before I could get gold rates. I will try to get the other rates another time as the sites are so busy now. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/75 "2013-10-13T15:00:34Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I think the Obamanistas are following the same strategy as Microsoft did for Window’s 95. Put it out as both a product and a massive beta test. Listen to the complaints, and fix them. Its the “tinkering” approach much favored by liberals. They have the charming belief that with enough tinkering, you can convert a diesel powered proletariat crusher into a solar-powered rainbow extruder. > > But yes, get it in place, however clumsily, and make the fixes that show themselves. But every single person who benefits from this is a potential loyalist. lol, this was good. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/76 "2013-10-13T18:06:38Z")
It’s a program. If they’d given themselves time to property QA test it, it would work on Day 1. They didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/77 "2013-10-13T18:22:59Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Well, heck, John, just close Netscape Navigator and AOL, you should be fine. Isn’t it against the rules to imply someone uses AOL? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/78 "2013-10-13T20:00:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s a program. If they’d given themselves time to property QA test it, it would work on Day 1. They didn’t. I’m not terribly upset by the glitches. Folks have 3-6 months for the first sign-up before the actual policies kick in, so a few glitches here and there are not deal breakers in any way. My biggest problem getting on the site was just that they were too busy. I hear numbers between 3 and 10 million tried to log in in a very short time. It took me several tries over about three days to get the info I wanted. A minor issue, at best. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2013, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/79 "2013-10-13T20:40:38Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Isn’t it against the rules to imply someone uses AOL? 🙂 Look, either way, the answer is to format and reinstall, then call support again later. And that’s some heartening news from Sam Wang, thanks for mentioning it, **Merneith**. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2013, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532/80 "2013-10-14T04:22:06Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > I’m not terribly upset by the glitches. Folks have 3-6 months for the first sign-up before the actual policies kick in, so a few glitches here and there are not deal breakers in any way. My biggest problem getting on the site was just that they were too busy. I hear numbers between 3 and 10 million tried to log in in a very short time. It took me several tries over about three days to get the info I wanted. A minor issue, at best. In the longterm you’re right, which is why I haven’t seized on it. But it is an example of incompetence. The government should be holding itself to a higher standard than the private sector, and the private sector does extensive QA and then beta testing. What the administration did was unprecedented, keeping the whole endeavour close to the vest, not telling the media what kind of progress was being made, and insisting it would be ready on Oct. 1. It wasn’t ready. So no, it’s not going to affect the success of the law long term, because eventually they will work it out. But it is a legitimate critique of the President’s management ability. No, he didn’t code it, but he had it in his authority to delay it if it was behind, or to let Congress know that the end users would effectively be the beta testers. His choices led directly to that snafu. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sweet-republicans-would-lose-the-house-if-the-elections-were-held-today/670532.md?page=5)