# Swine flu, will it be a NON-EVENT like SARS and bird flu? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [April 30, 2009, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831 "2009-04-30T12:20:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![calm\_kiwi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9fc348/32.png) [@calm\_kiwi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/calm_kiwi)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/1 "2009-04-30T12:20:08Z")
SWINE FLU…YADDA, YADDA, SWINE FLU…non related point…SWINE FLU!!! That is what the radio here sounds like. The story is some Spanish language students went to Mexico and…THEY ALL CAME BACK WITH SWINE FLU AND THE COUNTRY IS DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!. In reality “SOME” of a party of school kids came back from Mexico with “flu-like” symptoms. It is hard to keep up with the hysteria but I think there may have been 3 with SWINE FLU and quite a lot from the flight in quarrantine (mostly voluntarily…just in case). I’m OVER the media. There was the terrible Y2K virus, then SARS, then BIRD FLU and now SWINE FLU! While Swine flu still has the opportunity to kill us ALL there is every chance it will kill us ALL like Bird flu did. I thought that the main job of media was to inform the public but it seems like they have been taking lessons from the gossip mags …“BRANGELINA DOES SOMETHING” quickly leads to “SWINE FLU IS COMING, WILL KILL US ALL!”. Must the media beat everything to death? Or they being completely reasonable ?Are we all about to die from porquine snuffles? ---
**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/2 "2009-04-30T12:27:50Z")
Has Madagascar closed their ports yet? That’s when you know the sh\*t has hit the fan. ---
**Author:** ![MrBerious](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MrBerious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrBerious)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/3 "2009-04-30T12:28:36Z")
They wouldn’t serve up endless scaremongering shit if people switched off. Blame all the fear junkies who tune in. ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/4 "2009-04-30T12:40:12Z")
I’m not going to start worrying until I hear “Don’t Fear the Reaper” on the soundtrack. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/5 "2009-04-30T12:44:47Z")
Maybe they become non-issues because everyone freaks out and takes precautions. ---
**Author:** ![calm\_kiwi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9fc348/32.png) [@calm\_kiwi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/calm_kiwi)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/6 "2009-04-30T12:58:13Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Maybe they become non-issues because everyone freaks out and takes precautions. Seriously? Tami-flu is apparently selling like hot cakes here. How is that helping anyone? Those who can afford it freak out and buy it, limiting the available supply and buying something they will probably not need. Those who can’t afford it (the poor are always the most vulnerable) are faced with a diminished supply if they require it. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/7 "2009-04-30T13:38:35Z")
> [@calm\_kiwi](#): > > How is that helping anyone? Those who can afford it freak out and buy it, limiting the available supply and buying something they will probably not need. > > Those who can’t afford it (the poor are always the most vulnerable) are faced with a diminished supply if they require it. What’s the state of health insurance down there? I assumed it was universal, maybe I’m wrong. Tamiflu is only available with a prescription. ---
**Author:** ![Wheelz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wheelz/32/5718_2.png) [@Wheelz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wheelz)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/8 "2009-04-30T13:54:32Z")
> [@calm\_kiwi](#): > > porquine snuffles Band name alert! ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/9 "2009-04-30T13:57:06Z")
> [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](#): > > Has Madagascar closed their ports yet? That’s when you know the sh\*t has hit the fan. Well played sir! 😛 ([Pandemic 2](http://www.crazymonkeygames.com/Pandemic-2.html)) ---
**Author:** ![Spit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/76d3ee/32.png) [@Spit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spit)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/10 "2009-04-30T14:19:33Z")
> [@calm\_kiwi](#): > > Seriously? Tami-flu is apparently selling like hot cakes here. > How is that helping anyone? Those who can afford it freak out and buy it, limiting the available supply and buying something they will probably not need. > > Those who can’t afford it (the poor are always the most vulnerable) are faced with a diminished supply if they require it. You can just go down to the local shop and purchase Tamiflu?? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/11 "2009-04-30T14:25:42Z")
Addressing the OP- > [@calm\_kiwi](#): > > I’m OVER the media. You use a lot of capitals and exclamations for somebody who is over something. 😉 Swine flu coverage certainly looks overdone, but if this version of the virus does reach actual pandemic status it’s hard to blame them for overcoverage. You have to love the way the news is handling it regardless: the other day they kept alarming people and then saying “we don’t want people to freak out,” today CNN has a story with a link asking “Is it time to freak out?” No word on whether or not it’s time to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/12 "2009-04-30T14:28:55Z")
The thing about a pandemic is, if you stop it before it becomes a pandemic then it’s a non-event. If you wait until it’s big event with lots of people dying, before you try to stop it, then it’s already too late. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/13 "2009-04-30T14:33:44Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > The thing about a pandemic is, if you stop it before it becomes a pandemic then it’s a non-event. If you wait until it’s big event with lots of people dying to try to stop it, then it’s already too late. Right. And SARS and bird flu were a story for the same reasons as swine flu: people have been saying for a long while that one of these sicknesses was likely to break out and infect a large number of people, even beyond the thousands who ultimately caught them. I think the suspected swine flu cases are at around 3,000 a month after the outbreak started and only a few days after it was identified. I think 7,000 people caught SARS over a period of several months. ---
**Author:** ![Eonwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eonwe/32/240_2.png) [@Eonwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eonwe)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/14 "2009-04-30T14:47:36Z")
> [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](#): > > Has Madagascar closed their ports yet? That’s when you know the sh\*t has hit the fan. A second “well done” to you! ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/15 "2009-04-30T14:48:47Z")
SARS and bird flu were in large part contained by precisely the sort of preparations put in place for the very real danger they represented. Their failure to turn into global catastrophes is not an indicator that the health authorities and media were crying wolf; some very good steps were taken to contain them, which almost certainly prevented a much larger number of deaths. We’re still at the information-gathering stage with this outbreak, but it’s misguided to suggest that we shouldn’t worry because previous ones turned out to be relatively small. Remember this: even if this flu is no less lethal than regular flu, its genetic novelty gives it the potential for a much wider spread, as there’s unlikely to be any natural immunity amongst us. Seasonal flu kills around 30,000 people a year in the USA alone, and that’s without even infecting a majority of the population. Make no mistake, the danger is very real, and far more deserving of coverage than any terrorist plot. Anyway, the very best coverage on swine flu I’ve found is at the [Effect Measure](http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/) blog, where some very tired epidemiologists are doing their level best to explain things. In fact the latest post is on why we shouldn’t call this scaremongering: > [@Effect Measure](#): > > There is a tendency to be preoccupied with the latest in fast moving events, but I want to pause for a moment to make a point that has been lost in the discussion: we are witnessing a medical science landmark. Never before have we watched a flu outbreak of global dimensions unfold in real time. Nor have we ever had the opportunity to alter the course of such an outbreak. > … > We are not fully prepared for the demands a lot of sickness in our communities would place on a very weakened medical and public health system. One reason for the lack of preparation is that too few people cared enough. Now when we are being given some good reasons to care, I, for one, am not complaining. ---
**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/16 "2009-04-30T15:00:10Z")
> [@Eonwe](#): > > A second “well done” to you! I’m here all week… 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Bruce\_Wayne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bruce\_Wayne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bruce_Wayne)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/17 "2009-04-30T15:08:38Z")
One confirmed case a county away, people were buying up the face masks at the local Lowes hardware store like hotcakes. I wonder when it will tagged with the name _Captain Trips_. See you in Vegas. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Moirai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/96bed5/32.png) [@Moirai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moirai)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/18 "2009-04-30T15:20:11Z")
Ft. Worth, TX, ISD closed all of it’s schools. 80,000 kids. During state testing. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/19 "2009-04-30T15:26:10Z")
> [@Dead\_Badger](#): > > SARS and bird flu were in large part contained by precisely the sort of preparations put in place for the very real danger they represented. Their failure to turn into global catastrophes is not an indicator that the health authorities and media were crying wolf; some very good steps were taken to contain them, which almost certainly prevented a much larger number of deaths. > > We’re still at the information-gathering stage with this outbreak, but it’s misguided to suggest that we shouldn’t worry because previous ones turned out to be relatively small. Remember this: even if this flu is no less lethal than regular flu, its genetic novelty gives it the potential for a much wider spread, as there’s unlikely to be any natural immunity amongst us. Seasonal flu kills around 30,000 people a year in the USA alone, and that’s without even infecting a majority of the population. Make no mistake, the danger is very real, and far more deserving of coverage than any terrorist plot. > > Anyway, the very best coverage on swine flu I’ve found is at the [Effect Measure](http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/) blog, where some very tired epidemiologists are doing their level best to explain things. In fact the latest post is on why we shouldn’t call this scaremongering: Swine Flu is a very interesting science story. I’m sure there is sensationalistic coverage–but I don’t watch it. When I’m tired of acting smart & just want to rot my brain, I’ll go to [HULU.COM](http://HULU.COM) & watch TV! But the OP is in NZ, where HULU doesn’t work. **That’s** serious! ---
**Author:** ![Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swallowed_My_Cellphone)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/20 "2009-04-30T15:56:41Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Maybe they become non-issues because everyone freaks out and takes precautions. Nah. I was living in Toronto during SARS. The news showed TV footage _in China_ of people wearing masks etc. during their commute, and none of that was going on here taht I could see. It did not affect the general public, really, and the only “precautions” I saw was that in government buildings they had hand sanitizer and refused you service if you didn’t make a big show of using it first. Otherwise, daily business and goings on were the same as they’ve always been. Buying lunch was the same, shopping was the same etc. I expect Bacon Lung will go over the same way. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831.md?page=2)