# Swine flu, will it be a NON-EVENT like SARS and bird flu? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [April 30, 2009, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831 "2009-04-30T12:20:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ogre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ecb155/32.png) [@Ogre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ogre)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/21 "2009-04-30T16:24:33Z")
> [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](#): > > Nah. I was living in Toronto during SARS. The news showed TV footage _in China_ of people wearing masks etc. during their commute, and none of that was going on here taht I could see. It did not affect the general public, really, and the only “precautions” I saw was that in government buildings they had hand sanitizer and refused you service if you didn’t make a big show of using it first. > > Otherwise, daily business and goings on were the same as they’ve always been. Buying lunch was the same, shopping was the same etc. > > I expect Bacon Lung will go over the same way. The trouble with that is that wearing masks is a cultural thing in China anyway. Many, many, many people do it all the time in their normal everyday lives . It’s funny, we have an apartment complex near us taken up almost exclusively by Chinese students. Whenever I drive by (even before swine flu and allergy season), they all have masks on, pretty much all the time, from what I can tell. ---
**Author:** ![Rushgeekgirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rushgeekgirl/32/3715_2.png) [@Rushgeekgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rushgeekgirl)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/22 "2009-04-30T16:41:10Z")
I don’t get it. The OP almost sounds disappointed. It already IS an event. In Mexico. Where I have a lot of family, particularly in and around Mexico City, mostly in the little towns slightly north. Some of whom we haven’t been able to reach since before it came up in the media. We talked to my MIL last night and she was upset because it’s a huge effort for her to get into town to the market and she got there yesterday to find it closed. Since she doesn’t have tv she didn’t even know why. She found out from US on the phone! How could she live there and not even know? ---
**Author:** ![Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swallowed_My_Cellphone)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/23 "2009-04-30T16:41:55Z")
> [@Ogre](#): > > The trouble with that is that wearing masks is a cultural thing in China anyway. Many, many, many people do it all the time in their normal everyday lives . It’s funny, we have an apartment complex near us taken up almost exclusively by Chinese students. Whenever I drive by (even before swine flu and allergy season), they all have masks on, pretty much all the time, from what I can tell. Is taht due to pollution levels or something? I was unaware of it. With the SARS coverage, it was actually pissing me off. American news programs were showing pictures of Chinese commuters in China wearing masks… in conjunction with stories about Toronto. Plus, they were talking about Toronto as if it was a hotbed of scary contagion so you’d think the city was under lockdown or something. It was patently absurd and not even remotely reflecting reality. If they’d show _actual_ footage of Toronto at the time, you’d have seen people walking about in malls and lining up at Starbucks as usual. Nothing in day-to-day life had changed except that a lot of Asian food restaurants were practically financially ruined due to all the hype. So far Bacon Lung is being treated the same way. The Toronto Sun (an embarassingly tabloid newspaper that makes Fox news seem credible by comparison) had a picture on the front page of a woman wearing a mask and a dramatic headline: “It’s too late!” ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/24 "2009-04-30T16:43:15Z")
Don’t tell **KarlGauss** that SARS was a non-event. He was on the front line of the fight against it, leading the battle. He lost friends and colleagues to the disease. ---
**Author:** ![aruvqan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aruvqan/32/2891_2.png) [@aruvqan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aruvqan)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/25 "2009-04-30T16:56:02Z")
As far as I am concerned, it is still in the epidemic stage. Actually, not really much into the epidemic stage. To me epidemic means like a FULL 25% of the world has it. Pandemic would be 50% of the world having it. So … exactly HOW many cases are there confirmed? And how many more than the normal annual flu count is that? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/26 "2009-04-30T16:57:32Z")
Swine flu is God’s punishment for the ACLU and lesbians and 9/11 and nanobots. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/27 "2009-04-30T17:12:00Z")
> [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](#): > > Don’t tell **KarlGauss** that SARS was a non-event. He was on the front line of the fight against it, leading the battle. He lost friends and colleagues to the disease. I didn’t know that, but a-freaking-men. It’s really quite vexing that the sterling efforts of so many go unremarked precisely because they worked. SARS could’ve been much, much worse but for the efforts of many within the WHO and regional health agencies. **aruvqan** , illness rates (i.e. % infected) aren’t the definition of a pandemic; it’s global scope, not infection ratio, that defines the term. Loosely speaking, an epidemic is a case rate above that which is historically expected (which this is), and a pandemic is an epidemic of global scope. We can all go around with our personal definitions of words based on how scary they sound, I suppose, but it doesn’t get us particularly far. Perhaps the term “pandemic” has accrued cultural scariness over and above its technical definition, but this is hardly a case for playing down this new outbreak’s potential. Spanish flu only just met your criterion for pandemic status (50% illness rate), and that killed more people than World War I. Anyway, at this early stage the raw numbers aren’t what’s important; it’s assessing the case fatality rate and the illness rate amongst exposed populations (both of which are very difficult to accurately measure, particularly this early). Comparisons to normal seasonal flu don’t really help much; the point is that if this novel disease starts happily transmitting person to person in new regions, it will infect many more people than seasonal flu because the level of immunity in the population is effectively zero. ---
**Author:** ![buttonjockey308](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bcef8e/32.png) [@buttonjockey308](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buttonjockey308)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/28 "2009-04-30T17:56:19Z")
For my money, there isn’t a way to be TOO prepared. Fear sells, so that’s why the news does what they do, but honestly, whether it’s a terror plot or a global flu pandemic, we have as much protection as we can realistically deploy from the governments, the rest is up to us. I applaud the folks in the trenches that are doing their best to keep us safe though, that’s not a gig I would want. Chase bad guys, run into burning buildings, gun fights, car chases, EOD, all ok with me. I want no part of being a bug hunter. I think all the notice and prevention means that this will not be as bad as it could have been. The fact that they’re closing schools and cancelling events means that theres more to this than is being talked about and/or the politicians don’t understand how big this thing can get and are using a strategy of overkill. ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/29 "2009-04-30T18:23:20Z")
> [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](#): > > Don’t tell **KarlGauss** that SARS was a non-event. He was on the front line of the fight against it, leading the battle. He lost friends and colleagues to the disease. My mother’s cousin was killed by it as well. ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/30 "2009-04-30T18:27:12Z")
> [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](#): > > Has Madagascar closed their ports yet? That’s when you know the sh\*t has hit the fan. I think this is the third time I’ve read about Madagascar closing its ports. And I don’t even play computer games. I’ll be glad when this flu is done, if only to stop hearing all the Outbreak references. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/31 "2009-04-30T18:31:35Z")
> [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](#): > > Nah. I was living in Toronto during SARS. The news showed TV footage _in China_ of people wearing masks etc. during their commute, and none of that was going on here taht I could see. It did not affect the general public, really, and the only “precautions” I saw was that in government buildings they had hand sanitizer and refused you service if you didn’t make a big show of using it first. > > Otherwise, daily business and goings on were the same as they’ve always been. Buying lunch was the same, shopping was the same etc. There are a number of things it can help. Yeah people generally carry on with life but people take more precautions. - Maybe they wash their hands more frequently - Maybe they will stay home from work if they feel a little sick rather than going in (as we all too often do) - Maybe if they (or their children) are feeling unwell they are quicker to seek medical help - Maybe countries screen airport arrivals for fever and stop those people from entering And so on. Certainly the media makes it a bit of a frenzy. Slow news day in a 24/7 news cycle they need to jump on something and this gets people watching. I am not saying people should run around all freaked out but some simple precautions are fine. Also, consider the downside. If this is one they make no fuss about and does turn into a killer then what? Too late…millions and millions could die. Personally I’d rather they sound the alarm wrongly 9-out-of-10 times on this to catch one real one than not fuss about any of them till it is too late and we are screwed. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/32 "2009-04-30T18:36:49Z")
Most people are skeptical. it is the TV news and the government that are making the noise. News love to jump on these stories but the CDC and health department reactions are troubling. It is level 5. That is pretty big warning for a non event. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/33 "2009-04-30T18:57:52Z")
Christ almighty. Do you know what “level 5” means? How do you know it’s a non-event? Why does it “trouble” you that health organisations are rushing to gather information on a potentially lethal virus, and keeping the public responsibly informed? What would you rather they did? I’m absolutely agog at the sheer concentration of stupidity in that last post. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/34 "2009-04-30T19:18:20Z")
> [@Dead\_Badger](#): > > I’m absolutely agog at the sheer concentration of stupidity in that last post. I’m pretty sure he was saying that, while people are skeptical of the TV news and the government, the preparations the CDC and other health agencies are taking show this is serious. That’s what’s troubling: the prep work is evidence that this is a real event. ---
**Author:** ![Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swallowed_My_Cellphone)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/35 "2009-04-30T20:03:56Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > There are a number of things it can help. > > Yeah people generally carry on with life but people take more precautions. > > - Maybe they wash their hands more frequently > - Maybe they will stay home from work if they feel a little sick rather than going in (as we all too often do) > - Maybe if they (or their children) are feeling unwell they are quicker to seek medical help > - Maybe countries screen airport arrivals for fever and stop those people from entering > > And so on. Yes, but there is a huge difference between government/security response programs and over-hyped media coverage. During SARS, government-issued information pamphlets and Ministry of Health campaigns were helpful and provided practical guidance. The media frenzy, on the other hand, was frightening and confusing people people and the information was often sloppy. Rushing to spread unconfirmed rumors and such is not helpful. Coverage went from “disseminating information” to a “Big Media Event - Must See TV!” and all the media fanfare was overshadowing factual information on the risk assessments to public health and effective preventative measures prescribed by public health officials. Foe example, if on TV they show footage that implies most commuters are wearing masks, when you can look out your window and see that’s plainly not true, it undermines the credibility of the information. It just looked quasi-fictional. During SARS people needed _information_ not “infotainment” and the line was so blurred that, in our office at least, we ignored most of what the news was saying. For example, if the local paper says: “152 people have died from Swine Flu!!!” and the same day a WHO representative says “Unfortunately that [150-plus deaths] is incorrect information and it does happen, but that’s not information that’s come from the World Health Organization.” So what do I, as the average Joe, do when I hear that? Presently, I’m doing squat unless there is an official announcement from a public health official. SARS was a huge big deal for medical workers here and also really pointed out were there were serious deficiencies in emergency preparedness programs at the municipal and provincial levels. It sure as hell wasn’t a non-event and it could have been much worse. It raised the bar for pandemic preparedness programs. But I really wish the media would just fuck off and go back to disseminating _verified_ factual news and information rather than jazz it up to look more like it’s a trailer for a new blockbuster. ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/36 "2009-04-30T20:23:34Z")
> [@Dead\_Badger](#): > > I’m absolutely agog at the sheer concentration of stupidity in that last post. Congratulations on your first exposure to gonzomax. As for the larger question, I’ll be the first one to tell people to calm down and stop panicking. At the same time, I’m glad that the WHO and other organizations are taking it seriously and preparing for the worst. That’s precisely what they should be doing, and it’s a reasoned and responsible course of action. What blame there is should be placed with the media and those who consume it and make this sort of crap profitable. We should be aware of what’s going on, take reasonable precautions, and move on with our lives. ---
**Author:** ![KneadToKnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kneadtoknow/32/3999_2.png) [@KneadToKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KneadToKnow)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/37 "2009-04-30T20:44:15Z")
> [@LonesomePolecat](#): > > I’m not going to start worrying until I hear “Don’t Fear the Reaper” on the soundtrack. I don’t hear much news in real time, so this past weekend was the first I’d heard of the swine flu, and when they were describing the symptoms, I said, “Omigod, it’s Captain Trips!” ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/38 "2009-04-30T21:57:33Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I’m pretty sure he was saying that, while people are skeptical of the TV news and the government, the preparations the CDC and other health agencies are taking show this is serious. That’s what’s troubling: the prep work is evidence that this is a real event. Ack, yes, you could be right. If so, sincere apologies, **gonzomax**. Been arguing this elsewhere and have developed a bit of a hair trigger. ---
**Author:** ![ivn1188](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e480ec/32.png) [@ivn1188](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivn1188)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/39 "2009-04-30T22:03:53Z")
> [@buttonjockey308](#): > > For my money, there isn’t a way to be TOO prepared. That’s not true, though. It’s simple economics. We could divert a substantial portion of our GDP to flu vaccines and make sure everyone got a shot every 3 months. Or we could be prepared for terrorism by assigning a police officer to every citizen and following them around all day. These are, obviously, a bit extreme, but all of life works this way – we have tradeoffs between the benefit and cost of actions (i.e.: car safety vs fuel economy vs speed). Whether the current scare is an over- or under-estimation is debatable, but it’s better to base our economic decisions on science rather than fear. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2009, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/40 "2009-04-30T22:18:45Z")
> [@Dead\_Badger](#): > > Christ almighty. Do you know what “level 5” means? How do you know it’s a non-event? Why does it “trouble” you that health organisations are rushing to gather information on a potentially lethal virus, and keeping the public responsibly informed? What would you rather they did? > > I’m absolutely agog at the sheer concentration of stupidity in that last post. Really. Level 5 means a pandemic is imminent. yet the numbers belie that. It is not really growing all that rapidly ,nor is it particularly lethal. The only American death being a person who came from Mexico. There is a dispute about the numbers from Mexico too. That is not responsibly informed. That smacks of sensationalism. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831.md?page=3)