# Swine flu, will it be a NON-EVENT like SARS and bird flu? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [April 30, 2009, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831 "2009-04-30T12:20:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/61 "2009-05-01T11:56:24Z")
Ben Goldacre of the excellent [Bad Science](http://www.badscience.net)blog has an interesting take on the “Oh, it’s all a big scare story” backlash [here](http://www.badscience.net/2009/04/parmageddon/#more-1127). Plus top end of the world/pig product pun, to boot. > [@](#): > > I assumed [people who asked him to go on TV and say it was all hype]were adhering, robotically, to the “balance” template, but no: he kept at it, even when I protested and explained. “Yeah, but you know, it could be like Sars and bird flu, they didn’t materialise, they were hype.” [Simon Jenkins](http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/apr/29/swine-flu-mexico-uk-media1) suggested the same thing. It’s not true, I said. They were risks, risks that didn’t materialise, but they were still risks. That’s what a risk is. I’ve never been hit by a car, but it’s not idiotic to think about it. Simon Jenkins won’t be right if nobody dies, he’ll be lucky, like the rest of us. Do people think this flappily in casinos? The terrible truth is yes. > > […] > > I’m not showing off. I know I’m a D-list public intellectual, but I just think it’s interesting: because not only have the public lost all faith in the media; not only do so many people assume, now, that they are being misled; but more than that, the media themselves have lost all confidence in their own ability to give us the facts. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/62 "2009-05-01T11:59:02Z")
> [@aruvqan](#): > > You know, by that definition, 3 people getting the flu that mrAru had back in november and immediately one flying off to canada, one to mexico and one to germany would qualify as a phase 5 pandemic. > > Again, I say a big resounding MEH. As pointed out, no that would not count as phase 5 (primarily because seasonal flu is a regular occurrence, and thus the cases would be perfectly within normal expectations). But regardless: for the third time, the absolute numbers are not what is important; it’s how it is spreading. Every single epidemic starts off with only a few cases - this has almost no bearing on how serious they turn out to be. Doesn’t this make sense to you? Why do you insist we be warned only when the horse has bolted? > [@](#): > > I have no problem with WHO keeping track of cases, but I wish they would shut down the damned panic mongering news programs and other media blitzes. Despite the fact that sensible precautions such as isolation, improved hygiene and careful employment sick leave policy have the potential to save thousands of lives? Who do you know who is actually panicking? I’ve seen far more people whinging about the media than I have running around buying face masks. Fairly basic measures can prove of great help to prevent the spread of an illness, and this requires the public to be kept up to date and informed, not issued decrees from on high when the situation turns nasty. I have literally no idea how you expect a bunch of epidemiologists to shut the media up, incidentally. Surely the best they can do is provide the facts in as clear a manner as possible, which indeed they have been doing. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/63 "2009-05-01T12:20:31Z")
“If it was Monkey Wank Fever going around, rather than swine flu, I think the national mood would be a lot more buoyant.” ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/64 "2009-05-01T13:07:59Z")
Maybe, but who would dare leave the house? ---
**Author:** ![KneadToKnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kneadtoknow/32/3999_2.png) [@KneadToKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KneadToKnow)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/65 "2009-05-01T13:31:07Z")
In case anyone hasn’t seen it already, there’s an internet diagnostic: > **[Do You Have Swine Flu?](https://doihaveswineflu.org/)** > > ZOMG! Find out if you have swine flu! ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/66 "2009-05-01T13:50:34Z")
> [@Dead\_Badger](#): > > Wow. **Marley23** really had me convinced I’d misread your post. Yeah, well, that makes two of us. **gonzomax** , would it kill you to try to be clearer? ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/67 "2009-05-01T13:50:39Z")
[“Pandemic obviously not what you thought it was”](http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/-pandemic-obviously-not-what-you-thought-it-was-200904301734/) ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/68 "2009-05-01T14:01:58Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > Well… you say potato and I say… ummm… potatoe? > > I guess you’re right about the community-level outbreaks (the level 3 to level 4 transition seems similar). I don’t know about any infected people who haven’t been in Mexico, either. > > Still, one thing is certain: **gonzomax** has no clue about what he’s talking about. Then let me help you. Level 5 means it has person to person spread and it is in 2 W.H.O. countries. That seems a long way from a dangerous situation. In Michigan we shut a whole school district for 10 days because a kid had the flu. Turns out it was the regular flu. Yet they are still shut down. I see 100 cases ,some questionable, in the whole country. That is not scaring me. The only thing that scares me is the over reaction. The health authorities are apparently afraid of something . ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/69 "2009-05-01T14:08:20Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > The health authorities are apparently afraid of something . I imagine the “health authorities” are afraid that this incarnation of influenza will turn into a crippling global plague. I thought this was sufficiently obvious, but one never knows these days. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/70 "2009-05-01T14:14:23Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > the health authorities are apparently afraid of something . Yes. The fucking _flu_, you cretin. Edit: And if some clown says, “_fucking_ flu? That doesn’t sound so bad, hur hur,” I will personally eviscerate them with a salad fork. ---
**Author:** ![Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swallowed_My_Cellphone)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/71 "2009-05-01T14:28:22Z")
[QUOTE=amrussell quoting “Bad Science”] “I’m not showing off. I know I’m a D-list public intellectual, but I just think it’s interesting: because not only have the public lost all faith in the media; not only do so many people assume, now, that they are being misled; but more than that, the media themselves have lost all confidence in their own ability to give us the facts.” [/QUOTE] This part of the quote is succinctly and more effectively stating what I was trying to say in my previous posts. Interesting concept too: Meta-news! Reporters reporting on the validity of their reporting. When people lose faith in the actual quality of information, you are more likely to have people ignoring evacuation orders when the category 5 storm is heading toward their beach house. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/72 "2009-05-01T14:35:53Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > That seems a long way from a dangerous situation. In Michigan we shut a whole school district for 10 days because a kid had the flu. Turns out it was the regular flu. Yet they are still shut down. 10 days?!? Where the hell did this happen? People do stupid things, and make stupid decisions all the time. I’m not sure why you think that is proof that this situation may not become serious. ---
**Author:** ![KneadToKnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kneadtoknow/32/3999_2.png) [@KneadToKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KneadToKnow)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/73 "2009-05-01T14:49:02Z")
If you don’t like the results from above, try this: > **[doihavepigflu.com](http://www.doihavepigflu.com)** > > This domain may be for sale! ---
**Author:** ![Sparky812](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Sparky812](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparky812)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/74 "2009-05-01T14:52:33Z")
Apparently the Swine Flu has now been renamed the Influenza A (H1N1) as it was deemed offensive to pigs and the pork industry as a whole.:rolleyes: Where were all the offended Teacher’s Aids and Nurse’S Aids?😃 [link](http://www.pattayadailynews.com/shownews.php?IDNEWS=0000009091) ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/75 "2009-05-01T15:09:43Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > Apparently the Swine Flu has now been renamed the Influenza A (H1N1) as it was deemed offensive to pigs and the pork industry as a whole.:rolleyes: > > Where were all the offended Teacher’s Aids and Nurse’S Aids?😃 > > [link](http://www.pattayadailynews.com/shownews.php?IDNEWS=0000009091) I’m pretty sure that pigs weren’t offended. They’re probably trying to avoid creating a drop in pork sales, which makes sense. ---
**Author:** ![Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swallowed_My_Cellphone)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/76 "2009-05-01T15:16:28Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > Apparently the Swine Flu has now been renamed the Influenza A (H1N1) as it was deemed offensive to pigs and the pork industry as a whole.:rolleyes: > > Where were all the offended Teacher’s Aids and Nurse’S Aids?😃 > > [link](http://www.pattayadailynews.com/shownews.php?IDNEWS=0000009091) Looks like part of the problem is that “Certain countries are apparently still laboring under the misapprehension that infected pork is a major carrier of the virus. In actuality, the virus is a much more dangerous airborne variety.” Greeeeat the article linked above says people are misinformed and then goes on to misinform. Or at least that article says it’s an “airborne virus”, while a WHO spokeswoman confirmed that the virus is not airborne. ---
**Author:** ![Sparky812](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Sparky812](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparky812)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/77 "2009-05-01T15:24:09Z")
> [@Labrador\_Deceiver](#): > > I’m pretty sure that pigs weren’t offended. They’re probably trying to avoid creating a drop in pork sales, which makes sense. Oh Thank You Obi Wan! Really? I never would have guessed:smack:! ---
**Author:** ![Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swallowed_My_Cellphone)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/78 "2009-05-01T15:27:55Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > Oh Thank You Obi Wan! Really? I never would have guessed:smack:! I dunno, have you _seen_ the pigs on the news lately? They look pretty pissed. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/79 "2009-05-01T15:35:16Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > Oh Thank You Obi Wan! Really? I never would have guessed:smack:! Didn’t look like you would’ve. You were the one claiming that pigs were offended and rolling your eyes at a name change implemented to eliminate confusion. If you want to get all huffy, that’s fine too. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/80 "2009-05-01T15:40:32Z")
> [@aruvqan](#): > > You know, by that definition, 3 people getting the flu that mrAru had back in november and immediately one flying off to canada, one to mexico and one to germany would qualify as a phase 5 pandemic. > > Again, I say a big resounding MEH. > > I have no problem with WHO keeping track of cases, but I wish they would shut down the damned panic mongering news programs and other media blitzes. Hmmm. When the level was raised to 5, media sources seemed happy to let people assume _The Stand_ was straight-up _happening_ right this very minute. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831.md?page=5)