# Swine flu, will it be a NON-EVENT like SARS and bird flu? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [April 30, 2009, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831 "2009-04-30T12:20:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![enigmatic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/898d66/32.png) [@enigmatic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enigmatic)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/81 "2009-05-01T15:51:36Z")
The worry is still that this thing will turn out to be excedingly infectious due to lack of normal widespread background level immunity. We don’t have the information to judge this. To be honest the reason that more people aren’t worried is that they both aren’t too hot at math and are assuming that this thing will spread like regular seasonal flu if it gets out of the box. Was reading yesterday that some of the CDC estimates suggest that a virus similar to this could potentially infect up to 66% of the population. The US popluation is approximately 300,000,000, if 200 million of them get the flu and only 1% percent of them die (approx figure for regular flu) then 2 million Americans will be dead. If it’s actually a 2% fatality rate then that is 4 million. Note that maintaining your current high survival rate will get harder to do when you are trying to treat two thirds of your population and most of your medical staff are ill. Imagine what effect that this would have on the currently struggling economy and remember the situation is likely to be even worse in most other countries. No one is saying that this will happen (and 66% seems really high to me, but I’m not an epidemiologist) but this is why people are worried. In the worst case scenario this virus will not wipe out humanity, and will almost certainly not cause the kind of mass death scenario you read about in that Steven King book, but that doesn’t mean that this isn’t potentially a very serious situation. However the initial studies of the virus do seem positive , it looks to have a fairly normal lethality rate and does not appear to have the mutations responsible for causing the cytokine storm effect that was implicated in killing younger people with the Spanish flu [this](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8028371.stm) is the best story I’ve found so far regarding analysis of the virus. Bottom line - too much still depends on factors we just don’t understand yet, until we do it’s silly to accuse anyone of over reacting. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/82 "2009-05-01T16:44:52Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Then let me help you. Level 5 means it has person to person spread and it is in 2 W.H.O. countries. > That seems a long way from a dangerous situation. In Michigan we shut a whole school district for 10 days because a kid had the flu. Turns out it was the regular flu. Yet they are still shut down. > I see 100 cases ,some questionable, in the whole country. That is not scaring me. The only thing that scares me is the over reaction. The health authorities are apparently afraid of something . Dude: I get it. The problem is you don’t get it. It’s not that important that the virus doesn’t kill many people. What worries epidemiologists is: 1. It’s spreading from human to human 2. People are getting infected because they don’t have antibodies Why is this important? Well, because in this case we’re one mutation away from a version of this virus that’s far more deadly. And that would be a big problem. Even worse: if this virus doesn’t mutate into a deadlier version of itself and/or doesn’t spread very far (because of the epidemiologists work so far), people like you are liable to shrug off a future event. And if, for instance, that event involves the bird flu (with a mortality of about 50%), there’ll be hell to pay. ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/83 "2009-05-01T17:32:30Z")
> [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](#): > > I dunno, have you _seen_ the pigs on the news lately? They look pretty pissed. Well, to be fair, they’re all under the weather with the flu. ---
**Author:** ![Sparky812](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Sparky812](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparky812)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/84 "2009-05-01T17:35:10Z")
> [@Labrador\_Deceiver](#): > > Didn’t look like you would’ve. You were the one claiming that pigs were offended and rolling your eyes at a name change implemented to eliminate confusion. If you want to get all huffy, that’s fine too. Lighten up Francis! It’s a joke. Welcome to the Pit!😃 ---
**Author:** ![Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@Swallowed\_My\_Cellphone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swallowed_My_Cellphone)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/85 "2009-05-01T18:14:40Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > Lighten up Francis! It’s a joke. Pfffft! Tell that to the slandered pigs. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/86 "2009-05-01T19:15:45Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > Lighten up Francis! It’s a joke. Welcome to the Pit!😃 Oh, I thought your copious use of smileys was an indication that you hadn’t been around long. Thanks for making me aware that the pit is primarily a humor outlet, though. It may help if you come to realize that people don’t often use the Roll Eyes smiley to denote a “joke”. (Obviously, I knew that you didn’t think pigs were offended. It was pretty clear, however, that you thought the name had been changed b/c someone was offended.) ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/87 "2009-05-01T19:21:22Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > Dude: I get it. The problem is you don’t get it. > > It’s not that important that the virus doesn’t kill many people. What worries epidemiologists is: > > 1. It’s spreading from human to human > 2. People are getting infected because they don’t have antibodies > > Why is this important? Well, because in this case we’re one mutation away from a version of this virus that’s far more deadly. And that would be a big problem. > > Even worse: if this virus doesn’t mutate into a deadlier version of itself and/or doesn’t spread very far (because of the epidemiologists work so far), people like you are liable to shrug off a future event. And if, for instance, that event involves the bird flu (with a mortality of about 50%), there’ll be hell to pay. Dudette. The numbers do not support anything like that. I can see the need for caution. I am always for that. Fox just said that the National guard is in charge of the Tamiflu and other medications at undisclosed locations. That would worry me, if true. 100 cases and no deaths does not. This whole thing may likely fizzle away. I remain a skeptic. I do not know what it portends and I will not be surprised if it just fades away. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/88 "2009-05-01T19:27:56Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Dudette. The numbers do not support anything like that. I can see the need for caution. I am always for that. > Fox just said that the National guard is in charge of the Tamiflu and other medications at undisclosed locations. That would worry me, if true. 100 cases and no deaths does not. This whole thing may likely fizzle away. I remain a skeptic. I do not know what it portends and I will not be surprised if it just fades away. “may likely”? ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/89 "2009-05-01T19:39:32Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > I do not know what it portends and I will not be surprised if it just fades away. Nobody should be surprised if it just fades away. We’ve not been told that anything is a certainty. But you shouldn’t assume, if it does “fade away”, that it’s because it was bollocks all along. Strenuous containment efforts are already ongoing, and even the mere hygiene information disseminated thus far will likely save lives. And even if the virus proves useless at spreading outside Mexico, it still will not mean the fears were unfounded; the risk is genuine, and given the lag involved in obtaining accurate pathology data, it is not sensible policy to simply “wait and see.” Plugging [Effect Measure](http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/) yet again, here is [another excellent article](http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/05/swine_flu_case_definitions_and.php) detailing precisely what is meant by a _suspect_, _probable_ and _confirmed_ case of the flu, and what the CDC does in response. Of particular relevance: > [@Effect Measure](#): > > Probable cases are popping up all over and I wouldn’t be surprised if CDC’s lab started to back up. That will mean that decisions about closing schools or businesses will be waiting for final confirmation. The decision makers are in a difficult position, because shutting schools at the end of a school year, with proms, SAT and final exams and who knows what else creates extremely difficult and painful problems. If this (so far) mild influenza peters out they will be accused of panicking and over reacting. But if this outbreak builds up a real head of steam, the consequences could be a great deal of illness, discomfort and some deaths and almost certainly medical facilities will be overwhelmed. > > There is an old adage: when public health works, nothing happens. In this case, the purpose of closing schools and canceling events is to prevent further transmission of disease. Experience indicates that the earlier social distancing and other similar interventions are applied, the more likely there will be a good effect. In this case, success will mean “nothing happens,” which is what we want. > > Unfortunately it is more than likely that the decision makers who helped bring it about will be blamed for doing what needs to be done. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/90 "2009-05-01T21:27:59Z")
Right now A:H1N1 is “news” … and when when the media fails to deliver hundreds of thousands dieing in the next few days it will quickly become a non-news story and the public will beieve it was overhyped. Meanwhile the experts know what they are afraid of and why. It will have a small first wave and by Fall it will have spread across the world in scattered cases, probably no more deadly than seasonal influenza is. No news there. Then comes Fall and the classic larger pandemic second wave, this time accentuated by schools back in session and cooler weather keeping people inside. That’s when we _begin_ to get very afraid because few have seen these markers before and it will very likely infect something like three to five times as many as seasonal influenza does - maybe 50% of the world will be infected in one season if that happens which in and of itself will result in an excess 100K or so deaths in America alone _if_ this is only as bad as seasonal flu by the time it gets to large numbers. Which in and of itself can overwhelm healthcare systems and cripple barely recovering economies. But that isn’t what really scares the experts. What scares them the most is that if half the world is infected all in one season then a significant number of people may also be co-infected with other flus - including avian - giving lots of chances for H1N1 to pick up some DNA bits from H5N1 (avian) that make it so deadly. So it soon won’t be “news” or it will be old news and a case of scientists hyping up risks in many peoples minds. But the reality is that we should be preparing now for the danger that awaits us next Fall and Winter. If the WHO and other agencies can stave that scenario off then they deserve our gratitude forevermore. (Even though their success will prevent most from realizing how amazing they are.) ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2009, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/91 "2009-05-01T23:13:48Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Dudette. The numbers do not support anything like that. I can see the need for caution. I am always for that. > Fox just said that the National guard is in charge of the Tamiflu and other medications at undisclosed locations. That would worry me, if true. 100 cases and no deaths does not. This whole thing may likely fizzle away. I remain a skeptic. I do not know what it portends and I will not be surprised if it just fades away. The numbers don’t support what, exactly? Read again: read for comprehension. The rest of your post? Well, it illustrates my point rather well. Thank you. **DSeid** makes a few good points. Read those. Just today I saw estimates of how many people will get infected by “light” versions of the influenza. 40% don’t scare you? How about if half of those were deadly? We certainly aren’t there yet. Through WHO’s efforts we never might get there. But your attitude? Simply ignorant. (I’m a dude, btw) ---
**Author:** ![Sparky812](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Sparky812](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparky812)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/92 "2009-05-02T12:43:03Z")
:(😃 > [@Labrador\_Deceiver](#): > > Oh, I thought your copious use of smileys was an indication that you hadn’t been around long. Thanks for making me aware that the pit is primarily a humor outlet, though. It may help if you come to realize that people don’t often use the Roll Eyes smiley to denote a “joke”. > > (Obviously, I knew that you didn’t think pigs were offended. It was pretty clear, however, that you thought the name had been changed b/c someone was offended.) OK Nancy, really!? Who’s the noob? You do realize your join date is on your post right? The pit has always been a source of some excellent humour, intentional or not. Take yourself for example. Please review your comprehension of the word “copious” as well …wait I’ll help you ;)⭕p:mad:🆒😕:dubious: Is that copious enough for you?😃 It may help you to realize that the Rolleyes does not denote a “joke” but emphasizes the futility at attempting to rename the virus at this stage. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/93 "2009-05-02T18:02:11Z")
Everyone seems to sneer at the bird flu as a massive overhype, but… Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the beleagured bird flu from a few years ago still hanging around in poultry, occasionally infecting and chillingly often killing humans in Southeast Asia who come in contact with the sick poultry. Isn’t the danger still, as **DiggitCamera** and others note, very real that this bird flu will mutate such that it will transfer from human to human easily and then…well it’d be Steven Kingishly damn bad, right? And isn’t it true that this horrific event may even be said to be somewhat likely…? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/94 "2009-05-02T19:02:25Z")
> [@DiggitCamara](#): > > The numbers don’t support what, exactly? Read again: read for comprehension. > > The rest of your post? Well, it illustrates my point rather well. Thank you. **DSeid** makes a few good points. Read those. > > Just today I saw estimates of how many people will get infected by “light” versions of the influenza. 40% don’t scare you? How about if half of those were deadly? > > We certainly aren’t there yet. Through WHO’s efforts we never might get there. But your attitude? Simply ignorant. > > (I’m a dude, btw) Of course you are. But I remain a skeptic. I see my government lying all the time. I don’t jump on bandwagons. I just watch and wait until I get convinced. I am not. Can you imagine such a thing? The WHo is watching closely because this virus is new. Some others about a century ago were very bad. That was not this one. it simply bears watching. ---
**Author:** ![DaphneBlack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daphneblack/32/5389_2.png) [@DaphneBlack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaphneBlack)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/95 "2009-05-02T19:37:52Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So it soon won’t be “news” or it will be old news and a case of scientists hyping up risks in many peoples minds. But the reality is that we should be preparing now for the danger that awaits us next Fall and Winter. If the WHO and other agencies can stave that scenario off then they deserve our gratitude forevermore. (Even though their success will prevent most from realizing how amazing they are.) Is it necessarily the case that this flu strain _will_ come back in the fall if it dies over the summer? I understand it is wise to prepare for the case that it might, but I’m just wondering if it is something that always, or most of the time, happens. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/96 "2009-05-02T20:37:20Z")
> [@Sparky812](#): > > :(😃 > Please review your comprehension of the word “copious” as well …wait I’ll help you ;)⭕p:mad:🆒😕:dubious: > Is that copious enough for you?😃 The fact that you use them in every single post is enough for me, Sparky. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/97 "2009-05-02T20:46:17Z")
[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8030859.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8030859.stm) Ignorance is affecting the W.H.O. now. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Badger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/848f3c/32.png) [@Dead\_Badger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Badger)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/98 "2009-05-02T20:59:09Z")
Yeah, I mean, what’s up with them being straightforward about the disease’s spread? That shit is _bullshit_, man! Wait, what? ---
**Author:** ![DaphneBlack](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/daphneblack/32/5389_2.png) [@DaphneBlack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DaphneBlack)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/99 "2009-05-02T21:09:59Z")
It’s bizarre to see this framed in the media as ‘Did Mexico overreact?’ I’m glad it looks like the human transmission is more difficult than was initially feared, but it seems to me, if anything, Mexico ‘underreacted’ initially (especially since they were apparently closely monitoring an unusually heavy flu season already). Their current reaction seems about right to me. China’s totalitarian government, surprise surprise, is being its usual self, but considering how they behaved with regard to SARS I’d still say I prefer this kind of action than the non-action we’ve seen in the past. The ‘overreactors’ here, surprise surprise, are the fucking media. Whatever makes a good story is plastered everywhere, even if that actually causes worse problems. Fuck it, it really pisses me off. ---
**Author:** ![Freudian\_Slit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/5daacb/32.png) [@Freudian\_Slit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freudian_Slit)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2009, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831/100 "2009-05-02T21:45:38Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > [BBC NEWS | Americas | Swine flu spread 'not sustained'](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8030859.stm) Ignorance is affecting the W.H.O. now. Huh? The article is saying that while swine flu needs to be taken seriously, it’s not as bad as we thought it would be. Isn’t that what you’re basically saying? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swine-flu-will-it-be-a-non-event-like-sars-and-bird-flu/494831.md?page=6)