# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/241 "2020-09-13T01:47:15Z")
There’s no telling what impact Trump’s actions will have on the outcome, but this week’s developments are not going to make him any more popular. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/242 "2020-09-13T01:50:16Z")
I’d like to add that for the first time in my lifetime, my home state of Texas is currently a swing state. It’s a good feeling to know that my vote will actually count this year 😃! ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/243 "2020-09-13T12:59:22Z")
The GOP certainly thinks MN is in play, as I have received 3 mailings the past ~2 weeks. Of course that may be more for down ticket races. Brian (and way too many text messages, those could be from DFL. I delete these unread. and most of them start with “Hey , I’m contacting you about…” I’m not going to read your message, and I am doubly not going to read it if you can’t get my name right) ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/244 "2020-09-13T13:46:15Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > The GOP certainly thinks MN is in play, as I have received 3 mailings the past ~2 weeks. Of course that may be more for down ticket races. It’s definitely in play. Biden shouldn’t take MN for granted. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/245 "2020-09-13T14:34:52Z")
Bloomberg is throwing cash at Florida in the hopes of securing its electoral votes for Biden: > **[Bloomberg to spend up to $100 million to beat Trump in Florida](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/13/bloomberg-florida-trump-biden-413122)** > > The money would, among other things, free up Biden’s resources for other battleground states. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/246 "2020-09-13T15:04:18Z")
Awesome! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/247 "2020-09-13T15:13:12Z")
I no longer live in PA but am getting a shitload of texts, so they obviously have PA in their sights. I don’t think Trump will take the Keystone State though. Conor Lamb’s election in SW PA - not only beating Rick Saccone but incumbent Keith Rothfus a few months later in 2018/2019 was Trump’s first warning sign. He is not going to do nearly as well in Philadelphia’s suburbs (Bucks County, Delaware County, and Montgomery County) this time. And while Biden isn’t Obama, he will probably do better in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh city proper than Clinton did. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/248 "2020-09-13T17:13:00Z")
> [@romansperson](#): > > Bloomberg is throwing cash at Florida in the hopes of securing its electoral votes for Biden: > > [https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/13/bloomberg-florida-trump-biden-413122](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/13/bloomberg-florida-trump-biden-413122) I like Mike!!! ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/249 "2020-09-13T17:21:25Z")
This is a great place for him to concentrate. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/250 "2020-09-13T17:23:05Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > But issue of campaign pocketbook size makes wonder what [Bloomberg](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/bloomberg-iced-out-of-biden-campaign-pumps-up-influence-nationally-and-locally.amp) is or is not going to do, independent of the Biden campaign, and above beyond what he’s already donated to the House races and Abrams’ Fair Vote. > > > [@](#): > > > > "Bloomberg keeps his word, he’s generally in late and his donations are generally massive,” said a person familiar with Bloomberg’s activities. > > Where, precisely, will he conclude his treasure chest is best leveraged for maximal impacts? > [@romansperson](#): > > Bloomberg is throwing cash at Florida in the hopes of securing its electoral votes for Biden I think he has more to spend. Where else will he focus on? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/251 "2020-09-13T17:47:53Z")
Florida is obviously a good place for Bloomberg to pump his millions. It’s probably a must-win state for Trump but also one where he has made some progress in recent weeks. It’s also a large, expensive media market and if a big ad push can win Biden a point or two that could be huge . PA is possibly the most important state of all. Biden is still pretty comfortable there but it’s a state he can’t really afford to lose and a big ad push there would give him some insurance against any late Trump surge. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2020, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/252 "2020-09-13T18:30:51Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > **PA is possibly the most important state of all.** Biden is still pretty comfortable there but it’s a state he can’t really afford to lose and a big ad push there would give him some insurance against any late Trump surge. Nate Silver agrees with you, and lists PA as the current tipping point state, with a 30% chance as the state that will decide the election. In second place is FL at 15%. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/253 "2020-09-15T12:46:10Z")
Interesting article, especially as to why Trump’s base sticks to him so loyally. > **[Why the stability of the 2020 race promises more volatility ahead | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/politics/2020-election-american-voter-worldviews/index.html)** > > In a presidency of unprecedented disruption and turmoil, Donald Trump's support has remained remarkably stable. That stability, paradoxically, points toward years of rising turbulence in American politics and life. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/254 "2020-09-15T14:05:50Z")
Trump campaign is [pulling all TV advertising from Pennsylvania and Michigan](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09/trump-pulls-tv-ads-in-key-swing-states.html). ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/255 "2020-09-15T14:11:42Z")
OMFG, at seven weeks out? That’s _great_ news. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/256 "2020-09-15T14:12:44Z")
“for now” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/257 "2020-09-15T14:13:49Z")
But it makes me wonder: why? It’s not like the Trump campaign hasn’t raised money. I had heard that the new head of Trump’s campaign who took over after Parscale had expressed concerned about how the campaign was spending its money, but this seems odd. Maybe they’re going to divert more to social media and just door to door campaigning. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/258 "2020-09-15T14:19:30Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > But it makes me wonder: why? It’s not like the Trump campaign hasn’t raised money. There’ve been several articles about this in the past few weeks. From what I remember: - The Trump campaign has raised a ton of money, but they spent an awful lot of it already - It appears that at least some of that spending has been made specifically so that Trump himself frequently sees his own ads - There are rumors that there’s been quite a bit of self-dealing and questionable expenditures ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/259 "2020-09-15T14:31:20Z")
I would not be surprised at all if the entire campaign is full of self-dealing con artists, now realizing that pretty much everything to do with Trump Land is a money grab. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/260 "2020-09-15T15:03:57Z")
This. It’s possible that they are quietly conceding and using the last seven weeks of the campaign to personally grab every fucking penny they can lay their grifting hands on. Donald promised us four years ago that he would probably turn a profit as president. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=14)