# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2020, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/301 "2020-09-16T22:48:22Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > Trump campaign is [pulling all TV advertising from Pennsylvania and Michigan](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09/trump-pulls-tv-ads-in-key-swing-states.html) I believe Trump’s team is just being shrewd here. They are saving up money for a kick in the last three weeks of the race. By that time they will have a better idea where to target ads most effectively. I also believe the poster who mentioned he could go on FOX News any time he wants between now and then but his internal polling will help him hyper focus advertising on the markets (or perhaps even districts) which will do him the most good As long as he is within striking distance very shortly before election day (and yes, many of us will have voted by then) he can really leverage spending by letting the numbers direct his strategy. Remember, like all con men he will use information the mark (or undecided voter) doesn’t know he has access to. Also I, as well as several family members are receiving multiple contacts a day from the Trump campaign. They are usually poised as opinion polls or issue priority calls/texts/mailings/etc., but they are all solicitations for money and offers to arrange for a mail-in ballot. They are pretty desperate if they are targeting me! (Funny how Trump is always questioning mail-in voting but making intense and repeated efforts to get those same ballots into registered R hands. I just hope my fellow Republicans can see through him as well as I can.) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2020, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/302 "2020-09-16T22:57:53Z")
And Sanders is 79. It seems age only matters when foes want it to. Biden is clearly more agile and in better health - mental and physical-than trump. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/303 "2020-09-17T00:58:53Z")
Generally speaking, yes, that’s true. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/304 "2020-09-17T13:41:38Z")
Just one more point - in 2016 Trump was running against the reviled (to many) Hillary, and Comey dropped the investigation bomb just a few weeks before the election. Neither of these are factors working in Trump’s favor this time. Yes, I’m sure Trump and Barr have some crap-nonsense cooked up re:Biden, to try to repeat the Comey bomb. But let’s hope that within the constant 24/7/365 Trump chaos tornado, it ends up being a fart in a hurricane. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/305 "2020-09-17T15:23:52Z")
As has been noted by multiple posters elsewhere, the most likely action by Trump/Barr will be a report on or indictment of Hunter Biden for dealings in Ukraine. The second most likely will be results of the investigation into the supposed spying on Trump in 2016 by the Obama Administration. It’s possible both of these will drop 2-3 weeks out from Election Day in an effort to replicate the impact of Comey’s reopening of the investigation of Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/306 "2020-09-17T17:39:42Z")
The latest from 538 and how some of the swing states are swinging. > **[Election Update: Where Biden And Trump Have Gained The Most Ground](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-biden-and-trump-have-gained-the-most-ground/)** > > From 30,000 feet, the presidential race looks much as it did when we first launched our presidential election forecast in August. Joe Biden has about a 3 in 4 c… Good news for Biden in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona. The bad news is in Florida. I’m surprised they don’t mention Pennsylvania in that article. The article states Arizona is the cornerstone for electoral college maps for Biden. I disagree with that analysis. I think PA is the keystone state 😉. If Biden wins WI, MI, MN, and AZ, but loses PA, FL, NC, and OH, things will be very tight. In that scenario the race would come down to the Nebraska and Maine congressional districts. 270-268 for Biden if he carries all of Maine and loses all of Nebraska. A tie if he loses Maine’s 2nd congressional district. Too close for comfort either way, and demonstrating that PA and it’s 20 EVis the key to this race, not AZ and it’s 11. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/307 "2020-09-17T17:53:34Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > …I disagree with that analysis. I think PA is the keystone state 😉. … ISWYDT. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2020, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/308 "2020-09-17T18:12:34Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > The bad news is in Florida But then the good news is that Bloomberg has committed to dropping $100 million Florida for Biden, in Spanish language markets I believe. So even if Biden’s looking shaky in Florida now, he can commit advertising resources to other states like PA and AZ and NC. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2020, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/309 "2020-09-18T00:57:33Z")
Since this is the thread about swing state polling and Texas is a swing state this year, I thought I’d share an anecdote. I just got off the phone with a pollster from Quinnipiac. I told them I was supporting Biden and MJ Hegar and that I would definitely be voting 😃. It’s my first time ever getting a call from a pollster, so I’m a bit excited 😂. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2020, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/310 "2020-09-18T01:25:02Z")
Joe Biden in Scranton, PA tonight making a play for that swing state. “This election is Scranton versus Park Avenue.” “All that Trump can see from Park Avenue is Wall Street. All he thinks about is the stock market.” ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2020, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/311 "2020-09-18T01:38:21Z")
You go, Joe! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/312 "2020-09-22T17:21:14Z")
This week’s polls. Six weeks to go. September swing state confidence pool thread coming later today. | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alabama | 8/17/2020 - 8/19/2020 | The Tyson Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 4% | | Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Kaiser Family Foundation | 1298 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 5% | | Arizona | 9/10/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 653 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 9% | | Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Monmouth University | 420 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% | | Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Monmouth University | 420 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% | | Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Monmouth University | 420 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even | | Arizona | 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 855 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 5% | | California | 8/22/2020 - 8/24/2020 | David Binder Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 30% | | California | 9/4/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1168 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 29% | | Florida | 8/11/2020 - 8/15/2020 | The Tyson Group | 750 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 2% | | Florida | 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Kaiser Family Foundation | 1009 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 1% | | Florida | 9/12/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1158 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 3% | | Florida | 9/15/2020 - 9/18/2020 | YouGov | 1205 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% | | Georgia | 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 1% | | Georgia | 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 | GBAO | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Georgia | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | University of Georgia | 1150 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 0% | | Iowa | 9/14/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Selzer & Co. | 658 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even | | Kentucky | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1164 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 20% | | Louisiana | 9/2/2020 - 9/5/2020 | The Tyson Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 6% | | Maine | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1183 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 21% | | Maine | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 663 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 17% | | Maine | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 12% | | Maine | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 12% | | Maine CD-1 | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 707 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 32% | | Maine CD-1 | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 267 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 22% | | Maine CD-1 | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 267 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 22% | | Maine CD-2 | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 476 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% | | Maine CD-2 | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 440 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% | | Maine CD-2 | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 233 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 1% | | Maine CD-2 | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 233 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 1% | | Michigan | 9/12/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 930 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 10% | | Michigan | 9/10/2020 - 9/15/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 8% | | Michigan | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Civiqs | 517 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 11% | | Michigan | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 5% | | Minnesota | 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 705 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 17% | | Minnesota | 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 615 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% | | Minnesota | 9/12/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 718 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% | | Mississippi | 8/28/2020 - 8/30/2020 | The Tyson Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 10% | | Missouri | 9/16/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Remington Research Group | 1046 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 8% | | Montana | 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 625 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 7% | | Nebraska CD-2 | 7/27/2020 - 7/29/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Nebraska CD-2 | 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% | | North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Kaiser Family Foundation | 1172 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 2% | | North Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 3% | | North Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 4% | | North Carolina | 9/12/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1092 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% | | North Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 653 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 1% | | North Carolina | 9/16/2020 - 9/18/2020 | Emerson College | 717 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 49% | D + 2% | | Ohio | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Civiqs | 556 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 3% | | Pennsylvania | 9/8/2020 - 9/11/2020 | Climate Nexus | 659 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 9/12/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1036 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Civiqs | 549 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Ipsos | 611 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Pennsylvania | 9/15/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1006 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% | | South Carolina | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 969 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 6% | | South Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 764 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 6% | | Texas | 8/20/2020 - 8/25/2020 | The Tyson Group | 906 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% | | Texas | 9/15/2020 - 9/18/2020 | YouGov | 1140 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 2% | | Utah | 9/7/2020 - 9/12/2020 | RMG Research | 1000 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 18% | | Vermont | 9/3/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Braun Research | 586 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 23% | | Washington | 9/8/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Strategies 360 | 501 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 22% | | Wisconsin | 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 702 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% | | Wisconsin | 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 605 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% | | Wisconsin | 9/5/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Morning Consult | 809 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% | | Wisconsin | 9/6/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Morning Consult | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% | | Wisconsin | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Civiqs | 704 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Wisconsin | 9/7/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% | | Wisconsin | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Ipsos | 609 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% | | Wisconsin | 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 636 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 6% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/313 "2020-09-22T17:34:52Z")
Thanks. Other than Ohio, lookin’ good for Joe! ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/314 "2020-09-22T22:55:57Z")
I can’t find a link, but ABC News reports that Cindy McCain will formally endorse Biden. Can’t hurt in AZ Brian ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/315 "2020-09-23T02:22:35Z")
Right you are: [Cindy McCain endorses Joe Biden | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/politics/joe-biden-cindy-mccain-endorse/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/316 "2020-09-23T15:32:05Z")
I’m not completely sure I understand those Arizona / Monmouth lines. There are two lines with the same date range, both over 420 likely voters (there’s another line with 420 registered voters, but ignoring that for now) with different results. Did Monmouth really perform two parallel polls of likely voters over the same dates in the same state? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/317 "2020-09-23T15:37:59Z")
They are two different turnout models. High turnout and low turnout. Low turnout is the one that’s better for Trump. [Full published poll results.](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_az_091720.pdf/) ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/318 "2020-09-23T15:39:52Z")
Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/319 "2020-09-23T15:46:36Z")
PA is getting a little too close for my comfort. Pretty good picture overall though. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/320 "2020-09-23T19:31:56Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > He can’t (legally) use campaign funds to fight lawsuits. OTOH, he can sure set up a gofundme and bilk the rubes for another few Bil. Apparently he can. The FEC allows The use private campaign funds pay legal bills arising from being a candidate or elected official. Which is pretty broad and sure to be interpreted in Trumps favor. Almost 60 mil to date. [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/05/us/politics/trump-campaign-funds-legal-bills.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/05/us/politics/trump-campaign-funds-legal-bills.html) This article is old, but it has some interesting information on how Trump donors paid his lawyers for the Russia probe. [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-lawyers-exclusive/trump-using-campaign-rnc-funds-to-pay-legal-bills-from-russia-probe-sources-idUSKCN1BU2OS](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-lawyers-exclusive/trump-using-campaign-rnc-funds-to-pay-legal-bills-from-russia-probe-sources-idUSKCN1BU2OS) ETA- I MEAN’T to read the whole thread before responding, really. But I typed it then got distracted and accidentally sent it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=17)