# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/341 "2020-09-25T15:12:32Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > A FoxNews poll conducted Sept 20 -23 has Biden at 50% or better in NV, OH, PA. > > The virus is killing Trump. After all he’s done for it! ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/342 "2020-09-25T15:27:24Z")
Senior voters flipping to Biden has been almost as surprising a development as the middle aged Gen Xers swinging more towards Trump. I kinda understand seniors seeing the threats to health and affordable health care (not to mention Social Security) by Donald’s dark minions but I don’t get the Gen Xers amenability to Trump even a little bit. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/343 "2020-09-25T15:36:24Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > And just like that, the Nevada polls are back showing Biden up by 6.9%. And all the Nevada Survey Monkey polls have been disappeared. Good. But the Arizona tightening seems to be real, unfortunately. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/344 "2020-09-25T18:31:09Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > but I don’t get the Gen Xers amenability to Trump even a little bit. Ref wiki **[Gen X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_X)** is now age 40 to 55. That’s an age where you’re not staring at retirement, but you’re also well into the more cynical, perhaps apathetic middle age. e.g. “The world is too messed up for me to change; the best I can do is hope for no gross disasters affecting me personally.” Being told Biden will triple your taxes, halve your stock portfolio, and crash the economy in a misguided attempt to stop this imaginary global warning thing while selling your kids’ futures to the Chinese _might_ be persuasive to somebody with 2 kids in high school or college who hopes their part of the world holds together a little longer. Never misundersestimate the power of wishful thinking. And the power of living in a propaganda bubble. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/345 "2020-09-25T18:50:40Z")
Another good sign is, ironically, Dewine’s popularity. I point this out because Dewine has, almost from the start, resisted Trump’s efforts to be a tool in Trump’s pandemic propaganda war. This doesn’t mean Biden will win, but it is a somewhat reassuring sign that Ohio, despite its rightward lurch in recent years, is still somewhat moderate and that Biden could win if he invests enough time, energy, and resources there. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2020, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/346 "2020-09-25T19:07:48Z")
Agreed, and it’s DeWine, BTW. Ohio is definitely winnable for Biden, and of course it will be in the spotlight this week with the presidential debate in Cleveland on Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2020, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/347 "2020-09-26T21:32:39Z")
My favorite Biden ad, and it’s only ten seconds long: [https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1307491919384260609](https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1307491919384260609) ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/348 "2020-09-26T22:45:41Z")
Nice, I like it. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/349 "2020-09-27T06:05:52Z")
Not swing state polls, but some new national polls from ABC News/Washington Post late tonight (FYI, 538 rates them an A+ pollster): **Biden +10** (889 RV) 53-43% **Biden +10** (1,008 A) 52-42% **Biden +10** (739 LV) 54-44% When third-party candidates are added to the mix, Biden’s lead drops by 4 points: **Biden +6** (889 RV) 47-41-5-3% **Biden +6** (739 LV) 49-43-4-3% Link: [Between the economy and coronavirus pandemic, Biden keeps his advantage nationally: POLL - ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/economy-coronavirus-pandemic-biden-advantage-nationally-poll/story?id=73252425&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_hero_hed) ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/350 "2020-09-27T10:03:26Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Watch the monkey get ghosted, monkey Monkey, monkey, monkey Don’t you know you’re going to ghost the monkey ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/351 "2020-09-27T12:15:31Z")
Thanks, but national, shmational. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/352 "2020-09-27T12:16:22Z")
Heh. Like the old grade-school retort: “Is that a promise, or a threat?” ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/353 "2020-09-27T12:21:35Z")
> [@Boycott](#): > > Texas is not flipping this cycle and I’m extremely sceptical of Biden carrying Georgia. 538 has Trump with a 70% chance of winning Texas. In contrast Biden has a 77% chance in Pennsylvania. Texas is definitely not in the bag for Trump, but I admit it will be a steep climb for Biden. But not as steep as Trump’s climb in the blue wall states, at least according Nate Silver. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/354 "2020-09-27T16:40:54Z")
National polls can say something. Once the national margin gets up to 7% or so, it is virtually impossible for Trump to win the EC. Nate Silver posted this chart a little while ago: Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 98% 6-7 points: 99% ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/355 "2020-09-27T16:53:56Z")
That’s true — good point. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/356 "2020-09-27T18:03:15Z")
> **[How Trump's base appeals have backfired | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/27/politics/trump-base-analysis/index.html)** > > Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University national poll finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a 52% to 42% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2020, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/357 "2020-09-27T18:10:42Z")
I would say the same for both TX and GA. There’s no question that Dems are gaining ground in both states, but until you have a Democrat winning statewide office in one of these states, you have to assume that Trump’s base will probably help him prevail once again. The good news is that Biden could come close enough - poll close enough - to force Trump’s campaign to defend his turf in these two states. Anything that forces Trump to divert resources, time, and energy from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to defend Georgia and Texas is a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2020, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/358 "2020-09-28T04:20:58Z")
Do we have a general campaign thread? I guess I’ll put this here… Can I vote for Kate Bedingfield? She’s deputy campaign manger and communications director for the Biden campaign. Here’s what she had to say on Trump requesting that Biden pee in a cup before the debate… > Vice President Biden intends to deliver his debate answers in words. If the president thinks his best case is made in urine he can have at it. We’d expect nothing less from Donald Trump, who pissed away the chance to protect the lives of 200K Americans when he didn’t make a plan to stop COVID-19. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2020, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/359 "2020-09-28T04:51:55Z")
oops. nm ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2020, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/360 "2020-09-28T04:56:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > …Anything that forces Trump to divert resources, time, and energy from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to defend Georgia and Texas is a good thing. Trump diverting resources, time and energy from only two of OH, PA, WI and MI to defend GA and TX would be even better. I doubt they would divert from all four. The best result from any cockiness would be if they lost OH to the Ds. If that happens it is truly over. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=19)