# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/381 "2020-10-01T19:51:16Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > also Lindsey Graham could lose in SC. And if that happens, that would be a crushing defeat for Republicans - the kind of defeat that could lead to some real soul searching. I would love nothing more than every son of a bitch who backed a guy they _knew_ was toxic, gets burned by that support. Graham is exhibit A for this behavior. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/382 "2020-10-01T20:02:27Z")
Yeah, me, too. It’s a long shot, but I’d love to see the GOP burn in the Southeast and in the Southwest (AZ) as well. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/383 "2020-10-01T20:51:22Z")
Our FL mail-in ballots began to go out last Fri. Per our mail carrier, most of our condo complex go theirs on Sat or at worst Mon. Mine even showed up on Fri itself. I promptly spoiled mine by mismarking a ballot initiative, so I’ll be carrying it in as a sample ballot to do live in-person early voting in mid-Oct. D’oh! Wife was more coordinated and avoided that mistake; hers is already in the USPS back to the elections department. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/384 "2020-10-01T22:08:32Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I think Biden has some momentum for now, but it could be temporary. He’s winning in most of the key battleground states, even if just by a hair. But with a record number of mail-in ballots this year, the October swings and surprises are less of a factor. If people are marking their ballots in the next couple of days, then Biden’s debate performance and Trump’s refusal to denounce white supremacists are much bigger factors than they would if people were waiting til November 3rd… like in a “normal” year. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/385 "2020-10-01T22:48:23Z")
Yes, a lot of Biden ballots are getting locked in even now (some Trump too, obviously). ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2020, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/386 "2020-10-01T22:55:26Z")
Wife and I mailed ours back today. ---
**Author:** ![Theodore-Striker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Theodore-Striker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Theodore-Striker)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/387 "2020-10-02T01:30:31Z")
I don’t think Ohio is going to end up as close to the polls are indicating, but this is just eye test living here. I live about halfway between Dayton and Cincy, edge of the northern burbs of Cincy, edge of farm country. John Boehner’s house is about 15 minutes front door to front door, and the county is consistently unquestionably red. The Trump signs still outnumber the Biden signs here, but there are Biden signs, even in the more rural areas. Many of the neighbors who were big Trump fans in ‘16 are real quiet right now. The Trump team actually had people going door to door last week, so there is some obvious concern here, there is not much reason to push in this county otherwise. There have also been a number of Trump signs vandalized, stolen, or at least in 2 cases, pushed down (probably by truck, these were the 5’x7’ signs). That kind of stuff just doesn’t happen in this area. People will disagree, and there will be the normal name calling, but nothing destructive. If that’s going on in this area, it really makes me wonder what the more traditionally even or blue leaning areas are looking like. It was fun to laugh that woman off of my porch though. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/388 "2020-10-02T01:37:58Z")
I do think that Ohio is in play, but when all is said and done I expect Trump to carry the state again - but with nowhere near as big a margin (almost 9%) as four years ago. No one would be happier than me if Joe takes it away, though. ---
**Author:** ![JayRx1981](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/71e660/32.png) [@JayRx1981](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JayRx1981)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/389 "2020-10-02T11:20:58Z")
Living in a rural town on the western border of Ohio, I drive up and down the US-127 corridor daily for work, and I have to agree to with this. I’m seeing more Biden-Harris signs than I saw Clinton-Kaine signs in 2016, but the Trump signs still heavily outnumber them. I think Ohio will be closer this time, but unless Biden manages to get Franklin County and suburbs, Cuyahoga County and suburbs, Montgomery county, and possibly even Lucas and Hamilton counties to turn out and vote overwhelmingly for him, I suspect Trump is still going to carry Ohio–just by a smaller margin than last time. One can only hope, though, and I’ll be early voting in person next week while I’m on vacation. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/390 "2020-10-02T11:38:09Z")
According to 538’s mainly-poll-driven model, the four states that are right around 50-50 chances for Biden or Trump are Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. Though I listed these in order from “slightly leaning Trump” to “slightly meaning Biden,” I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Biden WON Georgia and Ohio, but LOST North Carolina and Florida. I just sense a bit of Biden energy and momentum in Ohio and Georgia that seems to be lacking in North Carolina and Florida. Indeed, North Carolina is maybe the only state whose 538 tracker has slipped a little toward Trump in recent days. And as for Florida, it’s just a perennial quagmire of disappointment. I still think Biden needs to campaign hard in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and not entirely neglect Wisconsin, to ensure that two of these three (at least) vote in his favor, thus putting him over the top. Arizona, especially, has been rather shaky in recent weeks. (Pennsylvania is looking more solid every day, but I wouldn’t count on it quite yet). ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/391 "2020-10-02T12:58:56Z")
Has the Bloomberg money started hitting Florida yet? Didn’t he pledge $100 million to sway the state to Biden? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/392 "2020-10-02T14:52:56Z")
Of all the states you mentioned, Georgia will be the hardest due to its history and its voter suppression machine. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/393 "2020-10-02T14:59:14Z")
I’ve felt that Trump had the advantage in Florida due to his connections there, but Bloomberg’s push could definitely help Biden. Not to mention, Biden tag teamed with Obama to win Florida twice in 2008 and 2012, so he could absolutely pull off the upset there. It’s possible that Bloomberg puts Biden over the top. In a lot of ways, the focus of retaking the White House for Democrats, must start in Florida - not Georgia or Texas or Arizona. It has to start in Florida and not just because of the large delegate count but because Florida is a diverse state that pits polarized regional cultures and polar opposite forces against each other, much like California does, except Florida’s conservatives are much stronger and a lot more competitive there. Trump won by bringing out a stunning amount of support in rural and suburban areas - a wave of support that caught Clinton’s campaign by surprise. Similarly, her turnout was not as strong as she would have hoped. Florida’s election night returns were really the first sign of trouble for Clinton. They could be the first sign of victory for Biden if he has a good night. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/394 "2020-10-02T15:31:48Z")
> [@Theodore-Striker](#): > > The Trump team actually had people going door to door last week, so there is some obvious concern here, there is not much reason to push in this county otherwise. > > It was fun to laugh that woman off of my porch though. I’m glad you posted this, it touches on something I’ve been wondering about for a while. The Trump Campaign has been going on and on for month about the superiority of their amazing ground game and their army of door to door campaigners…blah blah. I haven’t seen any evidence of this, and I live in an area that should be prime “ground game ground”, a suburban community in a mid-sized city in a swing state. No Republican has knocked on my door or left a door knob hanger. I really wish they would because I’m looking forward to expressing my bipartisan affinity on 2A issues, then telling them to get their treasonous asses off of my property before I count to 3. Despite the “Republicans are knocking on doors and Democrats aren’t” headlines. I’ve had two different people from Democratic Organizations knock on my door to discuss my voting plans. Even though I’m not crazy about unsolicited visitors, I was really nice to them because I wanted them to feel encouraged and knock on more doors. But I’m really curious to know if this Trump ground game is real or just another campaign fantasy. I saw this NY Magazine article that indicated it might be over-hyped. It’s a long article and the relevant section, the tales of a reporter who tried to infiltrate the ground game, begins towards the middle. > **[The Chaotic, Desperate, Last-Minute Trump 2020 Reboot](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/donald-trump-reelection-campaign-2020.html)** > > Inside the most disorganized, unscrupulous, self-sabotaging presidential campaign since the last one. (TL/dr- He went to three trainings for Trump canvassing and was the only person to show at all three. The last one was held at a public business and even the people holding the training didn’t show. He then went to the Trump office and the guy that scheduled the training forgot he sent the e-mail, or something. It was pretty funny.) The article may be paywalled, but it will open in a private window. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/395 "2020-10-02T15:34:06Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I’ve felt that Trump had the advantage in Florida due to his connections there, but Bloomberg’s push could definitely help Biden. He might have an advantage, but I doubt it is because of his connections there. Generally, the more people know Trump the less they like him. NYC, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Theodore-Striker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Theodore-Striker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Theodore-Striker)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/396 "2020-10-02T16:03:55Z")
We are practically neighbors, but instead of the 127 corridor, mine is the Rt 4 corridor between Hamilton and Dayton. I agree with you about the get out the vote effort in those counties being key, they can generate a big swell to balance farm country. The suburbs, like Butler and Warren county, will be really telling. If those are even close, Biden wins, and possibly handily. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/397 "2020-10-02T17:05:10Z")
How a rushed-through Barrett nomination could bite POTUS on the ass: > **[Poll: Trump's Supreme Court gambit could benefit Biden](https://www.aol.com/2020/10/02/poll-trumps-supreme-court-gambit-could-benefit-biden/)** > > The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Obamacare, which Trump has vowed to scrap, is backed by six of 10 registered independent and undecided voters. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/398 "2020-10-02T18:42:52Z")
A Biden administration backed by a Democratic congress with some backbone to it could come up with a plan that does the same thing that the ACA attempted to do without it being struck down by the SC. The court can’t stop progress forever with a nation demanding it. And it increasingly will. We’ve got problems that need solving. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/399 "2020-10-02T19:22:47Z")
> **[Has Elissa Slotkin Detected Early Hints of a Biden Blowout?](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/02/trump-suburbs-white-women-michigan-423870?cid=apn)** > > Signs from a key Michigan district indicate that the president’s losses among white women are boosting Democrats up and down the ticket. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/400 "2020-10-02T19:25:50Z")
In terms of healthcare a SCOTUS overturn would be a Briar patch, helping assure a president Biden with a D senate and House able to deliver a much more comprehensive package that would stand up to legal review. The arguments there would be more between the Sanders crowd and the far expanded public option one. The damages that she’d likely bring on other issues over the years though would not be worth it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=21)