# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/461 "2020-10-06T17:30:42Z")
Biden held a town hall yesterday and one Fox commenter complained that the “undecideds” in the audience were far too easy on him. (Paraphrasing) “All they asked about were his plans for the next four years!” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/462 "2020-10-06T18:10:30Z")
I appreciate your posts AND wonder if the hidden text (different than blurred spoiler) bit might be a reasonable approach so those of us, like me, who like seeing the list, can see them, without the very long list showing up for those who do not? ---
**Author:** ![JayRx1981](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/71e660/32.png) [@JayRx1981](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JayRx1981)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/463 "2020-10-06T18:10:49Z")
Lance, I’m grateful for the time you take to post those poll results, for what it’s worth. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/464 "2020-10-06T18:15:51Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Trump has said he will refuse changes to the format, Given that the debate organizers are stating they will make changes, then it is on him. His refusal to participate not Biden saying no. Trump can spin it as unfair that they won’t let him do whatever he wants but I think those who that sells with are only those who already completely sold. And yeah, he’s the one who needs to shake things up. Of course even doing well after COVID odds are he’d fade during a debate at best. He may be grateful for an excuse … ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/465 "2020-10-06T18:40:02Z")
Trump broke the debate rules that his own team had agreed to, so he has very little cause to complain if new rules are now imposed to take his Alpha male bluster into account, or for the sake of public safety. > [@JayRx1981](#): > > Lance, I’m grateful for the time you take to post those poll results, for what it’s worth. Thank you. Seconded! Easy enough to scroll down. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/466 "2020-10-06T18:44:08Z")
Given the nature of this thread I think the long posts are appropriate. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/467 "2020-10-06T19:16:28Z")
It’s convenient having the poll numbers right here in the thread to refer to. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/468 "2020-10-06T19:19:15Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Biden held a town hall yesterday and one Fox commenter complained that the “undecideds” in the audience were far too easy on him. (Paraphrasing) “All they asked about were his plans for the next four years!”. Well, Trump has answered this question very clearly. When asked by Fox News what he will do in the next 4 years of his 2nd term, Trump gave a most excellent and clear response to this obvious question: _"One of the things that will be really great – the word experience is still good, I always say talent is more important than experience, I’ve always said that – but the word experience is a very important word, a very important meaning._ _“I never did this before, never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington maybe 17 times and all of a sudden I’m the President of the United States, you know the story, riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our first lady and I say this is great but I didn’t know very many people in Washington, it wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York, and now I know everybody. And I have great people in the administration. You make some mistakes, like an idiot like Bolton, you don’t have to drop bombs on everybody.”_ ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/469 "2020-10-06T19:55:53Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Seconded! Easy enough to scroll down. Third! Please, keep them coming! ---
**Author:** ![Temporary\_Name](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Temporary\_Name](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Temporary_Name)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/470 "2020-10-06T20:20:01Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > Low-information voters still rely on the debates . . . > [@DSeid](#): > > Given that the debate organizers are stating they will make changes, then it is on him. His refusal to participate not Biden saying no. > [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Trump broke the debate rules that his own team had agreed to, so he has very little cause to complain if new rules are now imposed to take his Alpha male bluster into account, or for the sake of public safety. I don’t think this is an original idea, I might have read it in a different thread. I think if a second or third presidential debate materializes – Biden’s Secret Service detail should warn Trump’s detail that if he gets out of his chair or moves toward Biden in any way during the debate they will view such an event as a threat and act accordingly. They might suggest that menacing Hilary Clinton four years ago, and shouting at Biden while he was very likely contagious in the first debate were part of their threat assessment and they will error on the side of over protecting their assigned protectee. I am kind thinking Trump’s own detail would love to see him shit his pants as several large, determined agents descend upon him. What would make the whole thing great would be if after his own detail picks him off the stage floor and asks him if he wants to go on with the debate, he breaks down and runs away. Then with him mic still live back stage, ask his own detail: “Where were you losers and suckers? It is your job to protect me – even from threats of my own making!” ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/471 "2020-10-06T20:55:24Z")
FWIW, the [Economist’s model](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president) today shows Biden hitting 90% for the first time. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2020, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/472 "2020-10-06T21:53:59Z")
“Who could argue with that!?” ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/473 "2020-10-07T18:04:32Z")
Yes, very informative, thanks! ---
**Author:** ![YamatoTwinkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/cc9497/32.png) [@YamatoTwinkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YamatoTwinkie)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/474 "2020-10-07T19:04:13Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > 538 is currently showing Biden winning in 83 out of 100 simulations. That is the best number I’ve seen thus far. I wonder how high that will go. 538’s projection ticked upward to 84 today. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/475 "2020-10-07T19:24:30Z")
For the first time ever, using Nate Silver’s state polling averages, as of about 2:15pm EDT today, I confidently give Joe Biden more than 270 EVs. My method for awarding states: **Biden’s up by 6.9% or more: Safe Biden** Biden’s up by 5.5-6.8%: Likely Biden Biden’s up by 3.6-5.4%: Lean Biden Toss-up: Between Trump +1.9 and Biden +3.5 **2.0+% for Trump: Safe Trump** [My current EV map.](https://www.270towin.com/maps/2WG8L) I set the “safe” bar much higher for Biden than for Trump, on the off chance polls are off like they were in 2016. All this being said, a skullduggerous Trump victory still keeps me awake at night, but I think I’m going to now route all of my donation dollars to down-ballot races. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/476 "2020-10-07T20:42:28Z")
> [@YamatoTwinkie](#): > > 538’s projection ticked upward to 84 today. And for the first time, there are only _three_ little red USAs on the [election landing page](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast), instead of four. 😄 Let’s see if we can’t get it down to two! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/477 "2020-10-07T20:44:56Z")
Biden leading in Iowa by 5 - count 'em, five - percentage points. I don’t care if it’s just one outlier poll, that’s a terrifying poll if I’m on the Trump campaign. Iowa does occasionally shift to the center, but it has been solidly behind Trump most of the way. It should be a lay-up win for Trump. > **[Biden leads Trump by 5 points in Iowa poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/07/biden-theresa-greenfield-iowa-poll-427373)** > > Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic challenger in the state’s Senate contest, leads incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst by the identical margin in the Quinnipiac survey. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/478 "2020-10-07T20:48:56Z")
The Trump campaign should release their internal polling if they think all these polls coming out post-debate are FAKE NEWS! ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/479 "2020-10-07T22:35:01Z")
Slate has an [informative interview](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/early-voting-democrats-joe-biden.html) with a vote-by-mail expert today regarding Biden’s early lead. Relevant quote: > Unless the polls are absolutely wrong, I expect we’re going to have a very good idea, if not a certainty, of the winner on election night. Because if Biden wins Florida—where we should have 99 percent of ballots counted on election night—that’ll be it. The irony is that because our election officials are pretty efficient at counting mail ballots, which will be lopsided for Biden, the first results reported on election night in Florida will show a huge Biden lead. You might see an early Trump lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where they can’t process ballots early. But in Florida, we can. And if Biden wins Florida, that’s game over for Trump. And if Biden wins Florida by the margins the polls suggest he will, that gives us a good read on the overall national swing. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2020, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/480 "2020-10-08T00:31:03Z")
This is the only election thread I’m currently posting in, so y’all get to have my observation that there has been an EXPLOSION of previously Trump-supporting LinkedIn accounts now yelling about how ‘LinkedIn is a BUSINESS forum and we don’t like POLITICS here.’ This has been a Report From the Ground. Back to you, Chuck! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=25)