# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/521 "2020-10-14T18:23:14Z")
That article illustrates how much better the GOP is at messaging than the Democrats. The number of people interviewed in that article who refer to Biden as a socialist or communist is ridiculous. Seriously low information voters there. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/522 "2020-10-14T18:24:55Z")
> Spoiler alert: it’s Georgia ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/523 "2020-10-14T18:26:03Z")
I just came here to say that. Motherfucking GEORGIA is turning blue. Don’t let up, y’all. We need this to be a 1984-style blowout. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/524 "2020-10-14T18:32:04Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Spoiler alert: it’s Georgia Only Iowa to go before we get to Texas 😁. I’m crossing my fingers and toes hoping it gets there. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/525 "2020-10-14T18:40:44Z")
The Trumpers now need to beat the poll forecast, and flip the following states to win: Georgia and Ohio and North Carolina and Florida and Pennsylvania And keep their slim lead in Iowa and Texas Trump needs to win all 7 of these states to get to 370. And he’s behind in 5 of them. Republicans have already given up TV advertising in Ohio and Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/526 "2020-10-14T18:41:42Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Trump needs to win all 7 of these states to get to 370 I haven’t checked our math, but I sure hope you meant 270 ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/527 "2020-10-14T18:43:14Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I haven’t checked our math, but I sure hope you meant 270. Whoops, yes. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/528 "2020-10-14T18:51:20Z")
Technically Maine 2nd district is before Iowa in the snake chart (at least right now, sometimes these move, esp 49/51 type places) Brian ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/529 "2020-10-14T19:00:58Z")
I can’t believe Georgia went to blue. Great news. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/530 "2020-10-14T19:07:21Z")
Mind-blowing. 538 had Georgia 70/30 for Trump just a month and a half ago. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/531 "2020-10-14T19:15:36Z")
I’m pretty sure everyone understands this, but I’ll state it explicitly in the thread so there is no confusion… Georgia, in the 538 forecast, is the palest shade of blue. 538 is not now predicting that Biden is going to win Georgia. The model indicates that it is, ever so slightly, more likely that Biden wins Georgia than Trump. ---
**Author:** ![ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chockfullofheadygoodness/32/511_2.png) [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/532 "2020-10-14T19:16:58Z")
I assume the 538 forecast for Georgia is looking at polls only, and not factoring in the 100% chance of Brian Kemp and GOP Sec. of State fuckery. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/533 "2020-10-14T19:21:52Z")
This is a good point. I’m not 100% sure that Georgia is going to have a free and fair election, or has had one in the last few cycles. Florida too. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/534 "2020-10-14T20:09:43Z")
Not what you’re talking about but still not just polls. > [@](#): > > Right now, 73% of the forecast for Georgia is based on polls and 27% relies on factors like demographics and past voting patterns. Which I don’t get since the pollsters factor that in so it sort of double dips don’t it? The shift to 51% Biden was on the +7 Biden Quinnipiac poll. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/535 "2020-10-14T20:54:20Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > That article illustrates how much better the GOP is at messaging than the Democrats. The number of people interviewed in that article who refer to Biden as a socialist or communist is ridiculous. Seriously low information voters there. As to the last sentence, they’re actually high information voters. They’ve been stuffed _full_ of information. The problem is it’s all false. The core problem is the ability of both professional traditional media and amateur social media to sell BS as truth. And for professional social media to be by far the worst of the three. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Colossus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.colossus/32/9423_2.png) [@Dr.Colossus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Colossus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/536 "2020-10-14T21:07:11Z")
Does this github project factor in with relevant data, and can it be parsed in a way that can be reliably interpreted? If you scroll to the bottom it just flat out says how many of each party have cast votes already and how many requested ballots. [https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html](https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/537 "2020-10-14T23:45:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not what you’re talking about but still not just polls. > > > [@](#): > > > > Right now, 73% of the forecast for Georgia is based on polls and 27% relies on factors like demographics and past voting patterns. > > Which I don’t get since the pollsters factor that in so it sort of double dips don’t it? > > The shift to 51% Biden was on the +7 Biden Quinnipiac poll. Pollsters factor demographics to make sure that their sample matches the population (or to adjust their sample results to match the population). 538 is using demographics in a slightly different way, I think - combining the polling with the election results you would expect from a state with the demographics of Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/538 "2020-10-15T00:24:25Z")
They do more than that. See the recent 538 article on just the recent changes pollsters have made, fine tuning who is in fact a likely voter based on hosts of factors, weighting accordingly. > [@](#): > > Pollsters told us they were now [weighting their samples](https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/For-Researchers/Poll-Survey-FAQ/Weighting.aspx) by education, because one key takeaway from 2016 was just how important someone’s level of educational attainment was in predicting their vote. … > > … Some pollsters such as Ipsos and the Pew Research Center have taken weighting by education a step further by weighting for educational attainment _within_ racial groups. … ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/539 "2020-10-15T01:27:32Z")
That Georgia poll also has the Democrat running in the senate special election ahead of the pile. That particular race has some notoriety because it’s basically been treated as a Republican primary thus far between the appointed incumbent senator Kelly Loefler (who had that insider trading scandal at the start of Covid) and House Rep. Doug Collins. They’re both trying to out-MAGA each other which may have opened the door for the Democrat who is pastor Reverend Raphael Warnock of Ebenezer Baptist Church (MLK’s church). He would need 50% to avoid a run-off however so even though he’s ahead in that poll he has a lot of work to do. The split republican vote is a huge advantage now. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/540 "2020-10-15T03:32:32Z")
Let’s hope he makes good use of it! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=28)