# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 29
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/561 "2020-10-20T18:41:30Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > My guess is that Fox’s trumpeting of the Hunter nonsense has swayed a few votes. It’s also about the right timing for a “return towards mean” after Debate 1 and Trump’s covid. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/562 "2020-10-20T23:49:27Z")
> **[This is Biden's shortest path to the White House | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/politics/rust-belt-swing-states-2020/index.html)** > > Two weeks before Election Day, Joe Biden appears well-positioned to finish the job that Democrats above all hired him to do: Rebuild the party's blue wall in the Rust Belt. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2020, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/563 "2020-10-20T23:51:54Z")
Yeah, Trump was having an extraordinarily horrendous 2-3 week run there, beginning with his debate meltdown and continuing into his super spreader event. We knew it couldn’t last. Here’s to hoping he does something so outrageously stupid that he can’t recover in these last 2 weeks. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/564 "2020-10-21T00:20:55Z")
Does picking a fight with 60 minutes count? > How about burning through half his cash in September, leaving him with just $63 million 2 weeks from the election? > ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/565 "2020-10-21T00:38:33Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > The race appears to be tightening just a bit, Not seeing it. Overall 538 remains at about 87% probability of a Biden win, as high as they’ve ever had it, with the biggest popular vote margin for Biden they’ve ever projected. No sure thing but no change. Ohio, Georgia, and ME2 remain toss-ups whichever color they get coded day to day. North Carolina has moved to a 68% chance of a Biden win. Florida at 69%. Their Pennsylvania forecast would have to be off by over 6 points for Trump to prevail in the EC. What votes have been swayed where? A few in Iowa maybe? ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/566 "2020-10-21T04:44:41Z")
Well, for one 538 had Ohio going from 51-49 Biden to 50-50. They had a national poll that moved a point towards Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 8:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/567 "2020-10-21T08:44:26Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > Which seems odd to me. My understanding is that there are very few undecided at this point. Are people really that fickle that they change their votes weekly? It may just be that it’s close enough in some areas that asking different people gets you a different enough poll result. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/568 "2020-10-21T11:21:58Z")
Really? 51% to 50% probability change in one state that is not needed and a national poll 1 point different? Okay. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/569 "2020-10-21T11:28:11Z")
The race could slightly tighten but still have Biden maintain his percentage chance of winning because $45 needed the race to tighten _more_ to close the gap to account for 538’s “unknown” factor. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/570 "2020-10-21T15:32:57Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Really? 51% to 50% probability change in one state that is not needed and a national poll 1 point different? Okay. The bigger concerns to me, this morning, are the new Pulse poll on Pennsylvania showing Biden’s lead down to 3 (50-47). But while that causes the reptile parts of my brain to start panicking, the more mammalian parts try to remember - Don’t over-react to one poll - Biden is still up by 3 - Pulse is a C+ - rated pollster with a 1.5 point Republican lean, according to 538 But it’s still not a great result. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/571 "2020-10-21T15:35:55Z")
A [Suffolk University/USA Today poll](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/10_21_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=F421FFD9FF52E261617E7EE0A253E6943EF64314) has Biden up in PA by 6. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/572 "2020-10-21T15:38:08Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > - Don’t over-react to one poll > - Biden is still up by 3 [The aggregate of recent polls show Biden up by 6% in Pennsy](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/). ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/573 "2020-10-21T15:39:26Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > Biden is still up by 3 - even in the one poll that my reptile brain wants to overreact to. I’m aware that other polls have shown him with a more comfortable lead. ---
**Author:** ![Author\_Balk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Author\_Balk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Author_Balk)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/574 "2020-10-21T18:48:08Z")
I checked Nate Silver’s site and I didn’t see the data for a question I had. But, I didn’t dig. Trump has a 18 percent (replace with the real number) of getting at least 270 electoral votes. Biden has a 18 percent (same number) of getting at least \_\_\_ electoral votes. What is the number? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/575 "2020-10-21T18:54:33Z")
> [@Author\_Balk](#): > > Trump has a 18 percent (replace with the real number) of getting at least 270 electoral votes. > Biden has a 18 percent (same number) of getting at least \_\_\_ electoral votes. > What is the number? Based on the scatter chart at the top of [538’s main presidential forecast page](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/), they are now saying that Trump receives at least 270 electoral college votes in 13% of their model runs. It looks like Biden gets at least 420 votes in about 13% of their model runs. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/576 "2020-10-21T20:25:33Z")
I can’t even get Biden to 420 giving him Texas, Ohio and Georgia. I came up with 341 in my head while I was mowing grass today. But that included Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/577 "2020-10-21T20:29:31Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I can’t even get Biden to 420 giving him Texas, Ohio and Georgia. If one looks at the models (hover over the individual “dots” on the scatter chart at the top of the page, and a map of that model appears), those are scenarios in which Biden gets all three of those states, plus Florida and Iowa. Those scenarios aren’t likely, but @Author_Balk was trying to understand which sorts of lower-probability scenarios for a Biden win were comparable (as far as odds) to the scenarios in which Trump wins the electoral college. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2020, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/578 "2020-10-21T20:40:47Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > If one looks at the models (hover over the individual “dots” on the scatter chart at the top of the page, and a map of that model appears), those are scenarios in which Biden gets all three of those states, plus Florida and Iowa. Those scenarios aren’t likely, but @Author_Balk was trying to understand which sorts of lower-probability scenarios for a Biden win were comparable (as far as odds) to the scenarios in which Trump wins the electoral college. I guess if Sleepy Joe wins all of the battleground states, there are a couple of others that I just can’t see right now, flipping from momentum. Missouri? Montana? Kansas? South Carolina? If the chance of all that happening equals Don’s current chance of winning, I’ll take those odds. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2020, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/579 "2020-10-22T02:38:18Z")
There’s actually a fairly large spike in the probability distribution of EVs just around 420, which is about where I’m seeing the 13% line for Biden as well. This is probably because of Texas - if the actual results are that far weighted towards Biden, it’s likely he’ll be picking up Texas and less likely he’ll be picking up multiple other states that give him less points. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2020, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/580 "2020-10-22T12:36:49Z")
Right. The EVs are not smoothly distributed, and the 38 for TX will make for a big spike. OTOH, TX is listed at a little over 1 in 3 chance of going for Biden, so there must be some scenarios where Biden wins TX but loses other battleground states that keep him in the mid 300 range rather than the over 400. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=28) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=30)