# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 32
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/621 "2020-10-26T14:36:47Z")
Apparently it’s because they removed the Trafalgar polls which were very good for Trump. They seem to have decided those polls are essentially fraudulent. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/622 "2020-10-26T14:37:20Z")
I’m glad you guys are optimistic, and i think I understand the reasons this years situation is different/better than 16. But I’m freakin terrified! Hopeful, but terrified. To quote a profound thinker/speaker: Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, you don’t get fooled again! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/623 "2020-10-26T14:53:32Z")
Beto for head of the DNC! > ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/624 "2020-10-26T15:03:45Z")
Apparently grabbin’ 'em by the pussy works. Just not to achieve the outcome Trump expected. I wonder how much of the burgeoning single women vote is ladies waking up to the real possibility of the unrestrained RWs killing not only Roe v Wade, but making birth control illegal again. Or at least not something health insurance is allowed to pay for. Texas, and especially Hispanic Texas, is also fairly young demographically. I wonder how much this simply reflects that more folks turned of voting age in the last 4 years than died off. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/625 "2020-10-26T15:08:42Z")
Famed slum lord Jared Kushner helping his father-in-law by reaching out to African Americans in saying they’re not successful under Trump because they don’t work hard enough: > ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/626 "2020-10-26T15:19:04Z")
Are the Kushner’s also slumlords? They’re best known around here for using connections to use Eminent Domain to kick low and lower middle-class families, especially retirees out of their homes to put up luxury Condos near the Shore. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/627 "2020-10-26T15:24:40Z")
There’s a Netflix documentary about this: > **[The Most Shocking Discoveries About ‘Slumlord’ Jared Kushner in Netflix’s...](https://www.indiewire.com/2020/03/dirty-money-jared-kushner-slumlord-netflix-1202216998/amp/)** > > The president’s son-in-law is the subject of Alex Gibney’s docuseries, in an episode titled “Slumlord Millionaire.” ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/628 "2020-10-26T15:35:05Z")
Thank you. I always found it amazing, Chris Christie was the Prosecutor that put Jared’s Dad in prison. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/629 "2020-10-26T15:47:01Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Nate Silver with me more (see a couple of comments in the mist recent podcasts). Whatever his comments, his model has given Biden an 87% chance of victory every day for two weeks, except one day a week ago when it blurped up to 88. (Actually, it was briefly at 88 today.) Again, though, this doesn’t account for cheating, but it’s hard to guess how that will affect things. 538 has Georgia as a tossup; in fact, I’d say Trump’s odds there are something like 95-98% to win. There is simply no way the Republicans will allow Biden to win if the vote is close. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/630 "2020-10-26T15:49:58Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Apparently grabbin’ 'em by the pussy works. Just not to achieve the outcome Trump expected. > > I wonder how much of the burgeoning single women vote is ladies waking up to the real possibility of the unrestrained RWs killing not only Roe v Wade, but making birth control illegal again. Or at least not something health insurance is allowed to pay for. > > Texas, and especially Hispanic Texas, is also fairly young demographically. I wonder how much this simply reflects that more folks turned of voting age in the last 4 years than died off. Young single women are possibly Donald’s second worst sub-demographic. And even Republican strategists have acknowledged that they face a terrible future problem (maybe the future is now) with voters born after 1980 or so, who vote against them by close to 30 points and who show no signs of becoming more conservative as they age. I also think you’re right about this becoming a factor soonest in states like Texas and Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/631 "2020-10-26T15:53:17Z")
Georgia is ready to flip bluish. Both Atlanta and the Rt 95 corridor are changing things along with the general demographic changes. Georgia is absolutely purplish now which amazes me. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/632 "2020-10-26T15:56:15Z")
Georgia did (mostly) vote in a Democratic Governor last time. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/633 "2020-10-26T18:09:22Z")
Now _there_ is an interesting poll today: InsiderAdvantage (B- rating from 528) with Trump +2 in PA (48 to 46). That’s way off the average in that state. It’s also a pretty small sample (400 LV) taken over one night (Oct 25). It is about 5 days fresher than anything else we have, so it will be very telling to see if any other polls track with it. That one poll was enough to move the 538 election forecast one or two points towards Trump. Remember this is almost exactly when the bottom starting falling out on Clinton’s polling in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/634 "2020-10-26T18:17:02Z")
To be transparent, that poll was paid for by [these guys](https://amgreatness.com/) [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/W2MIgsLH41Kcm9jxmBrXfa0-1atTUtuO3rdDEuXtQ6rXyqrjbI6b53lyFKXuE1MDQC8gN5ICT-mmiVvYw-wzzqrh1Dm_PAr0vD15Vq5ba9_j7OeQAwcE6FdvvtMdEI7YkJjwHdblcw=w600-h315-p-k "New item by John Thornton") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/kmzuuxXNbwDSP7Rs8) ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/635 "2020-10-26T18:27:18Z")
Now there’s a trustworthy and unbiased source! ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/636 "2020-10-26T18:50:26Z")
One big difference from 2016 is that there are a lot fewer undecided voters: > **[Fewer Undecided Voters Is Good News For Biden In The Midwest](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/fewer-undecided-voters-is-good-news-for-biden-in-the-midwest/)** > > Will this election be a replay of 2016, with President Trump unexpectedly winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania? FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast host Ga… Brian ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/637 "2020-10-26T19:09:06Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > To be transparent, that poll was paid for by [these guys](https://amgreatness.com/) True. Most of the good polls for Trump have been paid for by Republican-leaning groups this cycle. That was largely true in 2016 as well, however… I’m sure my blood pressure will go back down when some other PA polls come out in the next day or two. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/638 "2020-10-26T19:20:47Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Whatever his comments, his model has given Biden an 87% chance of victory every day for two weeks, except one day a week ago when it blurped up to 88 Exactly! (Note it’s at 86% now). I tried to make the point that it was slowly, steadily climbing — due to inherently declining uncertainties as the days left for a true surprise dwindle — UNTIL two weeks ago. The _lack of continued increase since then_ IS a tightening — small, but real. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/639 "2020-10-26T19:26:12Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Georgia is ready to flip bluish. Both Atlanta and the Rt 95 corridor are changing things along with the general demographic changes. Georgia is absolutely purplish now which amazes me. Sounds like black Georgians are fired up and they are turning out in force: > **[Georgia’s legacy of voter suppression is driving historic Black turnout](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/26/georgia-voter-suppression-black-turnout-432405)** > > Changing demographics in the Atlanta suburbs and an explosion of civic engagement among first-time voters could turn the state blue for the first time in decades. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/640 "2020-10-26T19:32:09Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > That one poll was enough to move the 538 election forecast one or two points towards Trump. Aaand it’s moved back. Is there a place on the 538 website I’m missing where we can see what’s actually added between each change? The polls are inserted in the polls table in a non-sequential order AFAICT and I’m going a little nuts trying to see if particular pieces of data (or particular state changes) are driving the various bumps. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=31) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=33)