# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 34
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/661 "2020-10-27T10:45:55Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’m not sure I see “a lack of continued increase” as a tightening. It’s, well, staying the same. Let me try this a third time. 🙂 If the polls stayed exactly the same, day after day, Biden’s chances in the 538 model would gradually increase over time, because the uncertainty inherently goes down as the time left for some big, disruptive event gets shorter. So, if Biden’s chances AREN’T increasing (as they haven’t, for the past two weeks), it can only be because the polling has been, on balance, getting slightly WORSE for him. Slightly. (ETA: Thanks to others for explaining this as well. As for WHY Biden’s polling has gotten slightly worse, on balance, I agree with LSLGuy and others, that it’s partly a “reversion to the mean” after a particularly horrible couple of weeks for Trump, after that first debate. I’m not too worried. It’s not a Come letter-style scary, possibly game-changing tightening — especially since so many ballots have already been cast!). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/662 "2020-10-27T11:07:40Z")
I appreciate the cites others have given that the race is NOT tightening at all. That may be the case. One reason 538’s model has been stuck at 87-88% chances for Biden is that it weighs “high-quality polls” strongly. If you buy into their assessment of polling agencies, this could matter. Several high-quality pollsters in several important states have showed lower chances for Biden in the last week than, say, a month ago. Again, on the order of “5 rather than 8 ahead in Wisconsin” (doesn’t worry me. - still comfortably ahead); “2 rather than 5 ahead in Florida” (doesn’t worry me — as I’ve said mainly times here over the years, I never trust Florida to get it right, and never count on it for much of anything); “Trump up 2 rather than Biden up 1 in Ohio”’(doesn’t worry me - Biden almost certainly won’t ‘need’ Ohio.) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/663 "2020-10-27T11:38:20Z")
Someone quoted Geoffrey Skelley (of the 538 team) writing yesterday that “Overall, we have six national surveys and eight battleground-state polls, and on average, these 14 polls show essentially no change from before the debate.” To clarify, he means the SECOND debate. He’s confused. When we talk about “slight possible tightening one to two weeks ago,” that’s a different time scale than “in the past week.” I agree that several high-quality polls smooth out to “no change” in the last week. And, he mentioned “national surveys,” which have little bearing (as well they shouldn’t) on that 87-88% number. And finally…I have acknowledged that some battleground-ish states HAVE been polling better right through these past several weeks — notably Iowa. And, most importantly, Pennsylvania has essentially held steady — hasn’t gone up or down overall, and that’s great news for Biden. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/664 "2020-10-27T12:00:20Z")
(Sorry about the multiple posts — last one, I promise): As per this just-now-posted Nate Silver piece, I have been confusing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s Wisconsin that’s held steady over these past weeks, while in Pennsylvania Biden’s lead had eroded somewhat. (I partly blame the NY Times’ Nate Cohn for my confusion — he did a price a week ago on how great things are going in PA for Biden, but it turns out it was based on just one poll.) > **[Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/)** > > Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relativel… ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/665 "2020-10-27T14:05:38Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Sorry about the multiple posts — last one, I promise): > > As per this just-now-posted Nate Silver piece, I have been confusing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s Wisconsin that’s held steady over these past weeks, while in Pennsylvania Biden’s lead had eroded somewhat. (I partly blame the NY Times’ Nate Cohn for my confusion — he did a price a week ago on how great things are going in PA for Biden, but it turns out it was based on just one poll.) PA is definitely the key. As that piece says, Biden would have to win both Arizona and North Carolina to make up for it. The other battleground states like Florida, Georgia, and Texas would be even less likely at that point. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/666 "2020-10-27T14:08:34Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > As per this just-now-posted Nate Silver piece, I have been confusing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s Wisconsin that’s held steady over these past weeks, while in Pennsylvania Biden’s lead had eroded somewhat. Polls in PA by most recent: Civiqs: Biden +7 Ipsos: Biden +6 Insider Advantage: Trump +3 Gravis: Biden +7 PPP: Biden +5 CNN: Biden +10 Fox News: Biden +5 Quinnipiac: Biden +8 538 actually has Biden’s chances of victory in PA holding steady. The “Tightening” is basically that IA poll being newer than the CNN poll, but those two polls are clearly outliers in what has been a remarkably stable race. Actually it’s not that remarkable… most states show a really, really stable race. Only a few have seen significant changes. Georgia has gone from “Trump will probably win” to a tossup (again, though, I will say it; Biden has no chance there because the election in Georgia is rigged. He’d have a chance if it was fairly contested.) In most states, however, the projected popular vote has been really stable for a long time. Even in swing states like Ohio or Florida or if you wanna be really optimistic, Texas, the projected popular vote for each candidate has remained within a two percent window. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/667 "2020-10-27T14:25:51Z")
Speaking of the Lone Star State: > **[Why the GOP hold on Texas is loosening | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/politics/texas-2020-election-democrats/index.html)** > > The record surge of early voting in Texas' rapidly growing cities and inner suburbs, which on Friday helped power the state past its total votes cast during the entire 2016 election, likely marks the end of unchallenged Republican dominance in... ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/668 "2020-10-27T14:46:46Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Georgia has gone from “Trump will probably win” to a tossup (again, though, I will say it; Biden has no chance there because the election in Georgia is rigged. He’d have a chance if it was fairly contested.) In what way do you believe the vote in Georgia to be rigged? Do you believe the voting machines are hacked to undercount Democratic votes, or that the people counting the votes are corrupt? ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/669 "2020-10-27T14:47:35Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > (Sorry about the multiple posts — last one, I promise): > > As per this just-now-posted Nate Silver piece, I have been confusing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s Wisconsin that’s held steady over these past weeks, while in Pennsylvania Biden’s lead had eroded somewhat. (I partly blame the NY Times’ Nate Cohn for my confusion — he did a price a week ago on how great things are going in PA for Biden, but it turns out it was based on just one poll.) After the recent Supreme Court ruling, it’s gonna be critical for Wisconsin Biden voters to get to the polls early and in person. I hope the word has spread. > [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Speaking of the Lone Star State: The demographic trends in Texas may be the most important political story of the coming decade. One thing Republicans have going for them is the generally more conservative nature of Texas suburban college educated white voters and the Texas GOP has probably done the best job with the Hispanic vote than any other state (among Republicans). That may be enough for 2022-26 but by '28 I think it turns blue. Unless our conservative party has come to its senses and, as the CNN story notes, decides to compete for urban voters instead of trying to suppress their participation. Suppressing votes is going to ultimately bite the GOP in its ass. Why do they _do_ that? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/670 "2020-10-27T15:11:57Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > [Geoffrey Skelley of 538 doesn’t see a tightening of the election post-debate.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-race-hasnt-changed-much-since-the-debate-and-thats-good-for-biden/) > > On the whole, these recent polls may indicate some post-debate _widening_ in the race rather than _tightening_ , especially if you take the two quasi-partisan polls [from Rasmussen & InsiderAdvantage] with a small pinch of salt (which we’d recommend)… What’s the deal with Rasmussen? Their polls have always skewed Republican, but recently, they took a MASSIVE swing towards Trump. They were are outlier before, and now theyr’e not even in the same solar system. Is it possible that they are deliberately screwing with their own methodology and/or numbers in order to “show” that Trump is doing well? Is this part of the Republican strategy for overturning the will of the electorate (“see, see, this poll showed Trump in the lead! Therefore we can stop counting now!”) Seriously, is there something below-board going on with them? ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/671 "2020-10-27T15:29:45Z")
Wait, why does Pennsylvania stop early in-person voting a week before Election Day? I foresee long lines in urban voting places on Nov. 3. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/672 "2020-10-27T15:30:29Z")
My thought process on purple states is to go with history until the present proves us wrong. As much as I’d love to be optimistic about GA and TX, I still count them as leaning red. I wouldn’t count on any state being in the Biden column until there’s consistently separation of at least 3%. That doesn’t mean Biden will lose any state in which he has a smaller lead, but if it’s a state like Iowa, which usually votes R, I won’t consider a 1% lead much of a lead for Biden. All of that being said, right now, even if Biden has a bad night, he still probably wins the projected vote sometime on November 4th or later in the week. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/673 "2020-10-27T15:39:59Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > (again, though, I will say it; Biden has no chance there because the election in Georgia is rigged. He’d have a chance if it was fairly contested.) Abrams came awfully close in '18. If Biden just does a bit better, there may be nothing the state GOP can do. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/674 "2020-10-27T15:51:54Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > What’s the deal with Rasmussen? Their polls have always skewed Republican, but recently, they took a MASSIVE swing towards Trump. They were are outlier before, and now theyr’e not even in the same solar system. Well, for them and IA and Trafalagar (those two being literally sponsered by right-wing groups) I think there are at least three motivations/explanations. 1. Excite the base. Or at least keep them from being demoralized. As little evidence as there is for the “don’t turnout because it’s in the bag” narrative, there is at least some evidence for the “bandwagon effect” and the “don’t’ turn out because my guy can’t win” narrative. Since the GOP relies very heavily on election-day turnout it’s important that it not be seen as a lost cause. 2. What you pointed out - providing some cover for the argument that the will of the people really does require vote counting to be stopped on Nov 3 or 4, no matter how many ballots remain uncounted. 3. Some actual methodological differences. Rasmussen has historically been very agressive with partisan weighting, for example. Even when the underlying demographics have changed they will re-weight to match the previous election or their read on what the “true” party makeup of the electorate should be. Trafalgar apparently really likes to push undecideds and also re-weights to try to make up for some “shy” GOP effects. So you have two reasons why they may “massage” the numbers for partisan purposes and one reason why maybe they really are measuring something that the other pollsters are missing. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/675 "2020-10-27T17:38:19Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > 538 actually has Biden’s chances of victory in PA holding steady Nate himself, in today’s piece I linked to, writes: “ The polls have been tighter in Pennsylvania, though. Biden’s current lead is just 5.1 points ([Pennsylvania : President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/))” …whereas it averaged 7 to 8 points, one-and-a-half to three-and-a-half weeks ago. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/676 "2020-10-27T19:51:29Z")
Seven days to go! Tons of polls. At least 68 million people have already voted. | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alaska | 10/19/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 800 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% | | Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 8/31/2020 | Basswood Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% | | Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 8/31/2020 | Basswood Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 1% | | Arizona | 10/3/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Basswood Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 0% | | Arizona | 10/14/2020 - 10/19/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% | | Arizona | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 232 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% | | Arizona | 10/18/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% | | Arizona | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1066 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% | | Arizona | 10/14/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Ipsos | 658 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Arizona | 10/14/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Ipsos | 658 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% | | Arizona | 10/19/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 0% | | Arizona | 10/22/2020 - 10/25/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 716 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | California | 10/9/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1185 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 26% | | California | 10/16/2020 - 10/21/2020 | University of California, Berkeley | 5352 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 65% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 36% | | Colorado | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 788 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 16% | | Florida | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 547 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Florida | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 4685 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% | | Florida | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 662 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% | | Florida | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 662 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% | | Florida | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | SSRS | 847 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% | | Florida | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | SSRS | 906 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% | | Florida | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Civiqs | 863 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% | | Florida | 10/20/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 4% | | Florida | 10/20/2020 - 10/22/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% | | Florida | 10/21/2020 - 10/22/2020 | St. Pete Polls | 2527 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | Florida | 10/20/2020 - 10/23/2020 | YouGov | 1228 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% | | Florida | 10/23/2020 - 10/25/2020 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 4% | | Florida | 10/24/2020 - 10/25/2020 | Florida Atlantic University | 937 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% | | Georgia | 8/30/2020 - 9/2/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 46% | Even | | Georgia | 10/11/2020 - 10/14/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Georgia | 10/12/2020 - 10/15/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% | | Georgia | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1672 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | Even | | Georgia | 10/21/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Landmark Communications | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 4% | | Georgia | 10/14/2020 - 10/23/2020 | University of Georgia | 1145 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 0% | | Georgia | 10/20/2020 - 10/23/2020 | YouGov | 1090 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | Even | | Georgia | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Civiqs | 1041 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% | | Indiana | 10/18/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Ragnar Research Partners | 629 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 8% | | Iowa | 8/30/2020 - 9/2/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 7% | | Iowa | 10/5/2020 - 10/8/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% | | Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Monmouth University | 501 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% | | Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Monmouth University | 501 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% | | Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Monmouth University | 501 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% | | Iowa | 10/18/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 0% | | Iowa | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 753 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 3% | | Iowa | 10/15/2020 - 10/21/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even | | Iowa | 10/19/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Emerson College | 435 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 0% | | Kansas | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 755 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 7% | | Kansas | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | co/efficient | 2453 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 17% | | Kansas | 10/19/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 897 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 12% | | Louisiana | 10/22/2020 - 10/22/2020 | University of New Orleans | 755 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 23% | | Maryland | 10/19/2020 - 10/24/2020 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 820 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 25% | | Massachusetts | 10/14/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 713 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 35% | | Michigan | 8/30/2020 - 9/2/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% | | Michigan | 10/3/2020 - 10/6/2020 | National Research Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% | | Michigan | 10/11/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Zia Poll | 2851 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 4% | | Michigan | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data for Progress | 830 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Michigan | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1034 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 2% | | Michigan | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 9% | | Michigan | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 718 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Michigan | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1717 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% | | Michigan | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 686 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Michigan | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 686 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% | | Michigan | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1032 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 12% | | Michigan | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1104 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 11% | | Michigan | 10/13/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 681 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% | | Michigan | 10/13/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 745 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% | | Michigan | 10/21/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 804 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% | | Michigan | 10/24/2020 - 10/24/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 679 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 13% | | Minnesota | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 864 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% | | Minnesota | 10/16/2020 - 10/20/2020 | SurveyUSA | 625 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 6% | | Minnesota | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Civiqs | 840 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 10% | | Minnesota | 10/24/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 657 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 14% | | Mississippi | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Civiqs | 507 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 14% | | Montana | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 4% | | Montana | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Strategies 360 | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 8% | | Montana | 10/18/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 758 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 6% | | Nevada | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Civiqs | 712 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 9% | | Nevada | 10/16/2020 - 10/23/2020 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas | 802 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 9% | | Nevada | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 809 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% | | New Jersey | 10/5/2020 - 10/13/2020 | DKC Analytics | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 22% | | New Mexico | 10/14/2020 - 10/17/2020 | GBAO | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 13% | | North Carolina | 10/15/2020 - 10/18/2020 | Data for Progress | 929 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% | | North Carolina | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 521 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% | | North Carolina | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Meredith College | 732 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% | | North Carolina | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1904 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% | | North Carolina | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 660 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | North Carolina | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Ipsos | 660 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | North Carolina | 10/20/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 1% | | North Carolina | 10/20/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1098 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 3% | | North Carolina | 10/20/2020 - 10/23/2020 | YouGov | 1022 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% | | North Carolina | 10/24/2020 - 10/26/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% | | North Carolina | 10/26/2020 - 10/27/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 937 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% | | Ohio | 8/31/2020 - 9/3/2020 | OnMessage Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 6% | | Ohio | 9/28/2020 - 10/1/2020 | OnMessage Inc. | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 0% | | Ohio | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 2271 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% | | Ohio | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1018 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 3% | | Ohio | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1102 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 2% | | Oklahoma | 8/13/2020 - 8/31/2020 | [SoonerPoll.com](http://SoonerPoll.com) | 379 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 60% | R + 25% | | Oklahoma | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | [SoonerPoll.com](http://SoonerPoll.com) | 5466 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 22% | | Pennsylvania | 10/15/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 6% | | Pennsylvania | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 574 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | Pennsylvania | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1241 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% | | Pennsylvania | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 2563 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 9% | | Pennsylvania | 10/13/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Muhlenberg College | 416 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | SSRS | 843 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 10% | | Pennsylvania | 10/15/2020 - 10/20/2020 | SSRS | 925 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1045 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1106 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 10/13/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 669 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% | | Pennsylvania | 10/13/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 736 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 10/17/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Civiqs | 1577 A | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% | | Pennsylvania | 10/21/2020 - 10/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 890 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 10/23/2020 - 10/23/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 602 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 10/25/2020 - 10/25/2020 | Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 3% | | Pennsylvania | 10/20/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Ipsos | 655 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 10/20/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Ipsos | 655 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 10/23/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Civiqs | 1145 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% | | South Carolina | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 926 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 6% | | South Carolina | 10/26/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Starboard Communications | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 7% | | South Dakota | 10/19/2020 - 10/21/2020 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 11% | | Texas | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1145 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even | | Texas | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 3347 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% | | Texas | 10/13/2020 - 10/20/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1012 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 2% | | Texas | 10/13/2020 - 10/20/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 925 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 3% | | Texas | 10/13/2020 - 10/20/2020 | YouGov | 1000 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% | | Texas | 10/20/2020 - 10/25/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 802 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 4% | | Texas | 10/22/2020 - 10/25/2020 | Data for Progress | 1018 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% | | Utah | 10/12/2020 - 10/17/2020 | RMG Research | 1000 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 12% | | Virginia | 10/13/2020 - 10/19/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 908 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 11% | | West Virginia | 10/19/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Triton Polling & Research | 544 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 20% | | Wisconsin | 10/14/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Latino Decisions | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Wisconsin | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Change Research | 447 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% | | Wisconsin | 10/16/2020 - 10/19/2020 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 45% | Even | | Wisconsin | 10/11/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1038 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 12% | | Wisconsin | 10/14/2020 - 10/20/2020 | RMG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% | | Wisconsin | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1037 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% | | Wisconsin | 10/17/2020 - 10/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 1100 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% | | Wisconsin | 10/13/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 647 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% | | Wisconsin | 10/13/2020 - 10/21/2020 | YouGov | 716 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% | | Wisconsin | 10/23/2020 - 10/23/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 677 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 11% | | Wisconsin | 10/20/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Ipsos | 664 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% | | Wisconsin | 10/20/2020 - 10/26/2020 | Ipsos | 664 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/677 "2020-10-27T21:54:19Z")
An [interesting overview of polling errors by region](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/yes-polls-could-be-wrong-could-help-biden-not-just-trump) and what they might portend for this election. > But in light of recent evidence, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Biden defies polls by winning a higher share of the vote in Arizona than Wisconsin — or breaks through in Texas more than he does in Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/678 "2020-10-28T12:28:36Z")
And on that note… > **[How Arizona complicates Trump's re-election bid | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/arizona-road-to-270-analysis/index.html)** > > Electoral analysts like myself have been pumping up the importance of the Great Lake (Rust Belt) battleground states. The math is pretty easy. Under any reasonable scenario, President Donald Trump needs to win at least Michigan, Pennsylvania or... ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/679 "2020-10-28T14:18:04Z")
[One heck of a poll out of Wisconsin this morning. It shows Biden +17. Let me repeat: +17.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/) And this ain’t coming from Marvelous Martha’s Two-Bit Democratic PR Polling Firm of San Francisco. It’s from ABC News/Washington Post (A+ pollster on 538). This has moved WI overall lead for Biden from 7.1 to 8.9, and puts the forecast at 93% for WI. [More on this doozy of a poll from Nathaniel Rakich.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/680 "2020-10-28T14:23:30Z")
91% of Texas’s 2016 total vote tally has already voted, with 3 days remaining for early voting (and election day, of course). > [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=33) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=35)