# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/701 "2020-10-30T04:00:47Z")
“Is the shit fresh?” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/702 "2020-10-30T04:03:29Z")
Is it organic shit? Farm-to-table? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/703 "2020-10-30T04:48:30Z")
Nice! 😄 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/704 "2020-10-30T06:42:20Z")
> **['We’ve got to stop the bleeding': Democrats sound alarm in Miami](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643)** > > Party officials in Florida’s most populous county are sweating weak early voting turnout among several key groups. Biden is underperforming HRC in Miami-Dade county compared to this time four years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/705 "2020-10-30T07:00:58Z")
The best shit, the yugest shit, nobody’s seen shit like this ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/706 "2020-10-30T12:51:58Z")
I’m cautiously optimistic about North Carolina. Every day I check the early voting statistics. As of yesterday 3.9 million people have already voted either in person or absentee by mail. That is 81.6% of the number of people who voted in the 2016 presidential election, so turnout is going to eclipse that for sure. Early in person voting runs through tomorrow. And a big plus is that of the 3.9 million votes cast, 1.0 million of them are from people who did not vote in the 2016 presidential election. People who turned 18 since them, people who obtained their citizenship in the last four years, people who moved the this state, people who had been disaffected by politics but are now engaged. None of these groups are people who skew pro-Donald Trump, and many of these are people who might be down weighted by “likely voter” screens. I’m also encouraged by an enthusiasm gap. I don’t doubt that my rural county is going Trump, in 2016 it was 62.5% Trump vs 34.1% Clinton, but based on my read of the signage and talk around town it will be a lot closer. You know how driving down the highways you’ll see a cluster of signs with down ballot candidates all from one party and you can tell that they were placed by some zealous party volunteer? I see a lot of those placed by Republicans with no Trump/Pence signs. Either they don’t have the money to buy them, or they don’t have the willingness to place them. Either way is OK with me. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/707 "2020-10-30T12:59:41Z")
Isn’t Roy Cooper pretty comfortably ahead? Him winning in '16, demonstrating that Dems can win in NC these days, plus the continuing demographic changes give me great hope that NC is “Virginianizing.” Right when the state is projected to pick up another EV, too. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/708 "2020-10-30T13:06:51Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > NC is “Virginianizing.” Right when the state is projected to pick up another EV, too. Those are related phenomenons (which I’m sure you know). As urban and technology centers grow, it increases the population density which is strongly correlated with Democratic support at his point in history. Texas is likely to add EVs too right as it turns purple. Arizona as well, and CO (which already flipped, but keeps moving bluer) The losers are the states that are trending redder (some of which are still blue, however) as well as the really big states - NY and CA will lose one. MI, PA, and MN will each lose one. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/709 "2020-10-30T13:21:53Z")
Fuck me if this election comes down to Florida again. . . ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/710 "2020-10-30T13:27:52Z")
Cooper should easily win again in NC , Forest is weak and has run bad campaign. Just saw a poll that Biden is getting 13% of GOP votes. If that is accurate it’s really bad for Trump. Normally party switching is less than 10%. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/711 "2020-10-30T13:37:19Z")
Charlie Cook, head of Cook Polls, says don’t expect a contested election. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/CVN-oEVKOBVIe-TD4iKMBfcIC-iJKYz9X7ACHxthuO5G5IPfuxh7Hhq-qKdLcbayF-ZfPn23a4WHOFYecjXoeASFL-WSz5QEOi7qKd98RZcG6cNcXAwZY0MqIjwsatCZo5RuMQcJBw=w600-h315-p-k "New item by John Thornton") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/JHnyeJVkMxuDj955A) > **[Don't expect a contested election](https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711037/dont-expect-a-contested-election/?unlock=SRT6SBVCJHPBFJTS)** > > The cone of uncertainty has narrowed considerably. Now, the question seems to be whether we'll see a "skinny" Biden win or a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/712 "2020-10-30T13:46:41Z")
The issue with North Carolina is that is is gerrymandered to within an inch of its life. In 2018 Republicans got 50.4% of the votes for congress as opposed to a 48.4% share for the Democrats. Republicans won 76.9% of the congressional seats as opposed to a 23.1% share for Democrats. It’s going to take an enormous blue wave to swamp that kind of baked in inequality. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/713 "2020-10-30T13:58:41Z")
TEXAS (Because it didn’t render, more Texans have early-voted in 2020 than voted in 2016.) ~~Removed bad link, virus detected (What Exit?)~~ ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/714 "2020-10-30T14:02:08Z")
Gerrymandering can backfire – if they gerrymandered districts to be +10 R, then in a +11 blue wave, suddenly the Democrats take back everything – not just a majority, but a HUGE majority. For example. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/715 "2020-10-30T14:02:26Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > The issue with North Carolina is that is is gerrymandered to within an inch of its life. In 2018 Republicans got 50.4% of the votes for congress as opposed to a 48.4% share for the Democrats. Republicans won 76.9% of the congressional seats as opposed to a 23.1% share for Democrats. It’s going to take an enormous blue wave to swamp that kind of baked in inequality. Not sure if you mean the North Carolina congress or the US congress, but the 2016 [NC Senate elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_North_Carolina_Senate_election) were pretty crazy too. Republicans won _11_ out of 50 seats by percentages less than 60%, while every seat the Democrats won was uncontested or a win margin of more than 20%. Now, granted, a couple of the races the GOP won were competitive and not in that sweet 54-60% safe-yet-not-packed spot, but even had the dems won they would still firmly have lost the Senate by a much larger margin than their vote share would suggest. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/716 "2020-10-30T14:02:29Z")
But they were forced into court-ordered redistricting last year that gives Democrats a much better map and a strong possibility to pick up 2-3 seats. And when they redistrict next year it’ll be a Dem Governor who’ll have a veto over any maps. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/717 "2020-10-30T14:07:13Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > > [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > > > NC is “Virginianizing.” Right when the state is projected to pick up another EV, too. > > Those are related phenomenons (which I’m sure you know). As urban and technology centers grow, it increases the population density which is strongly correlated with Democratic support at his point in history. Texas is likely to add EVs too right as it turns purple. Arizona as well, and CO (which already flipped, but keeps moving bluer) > > The losers are the states that are trending redder (some of which are still blue, however) as well as the really big states - NY and CA will lose one. MI, PA, and MN will each lose one. The demographic trends during the next 3-4 cycles – which are of course subject to change – are fascinating to think about. We could see a blue southeast, VA-NC-GA-FL, and a red Rust Belt, PA-OH-MI-WI. If that happens, it’s more bad news for the GOP when 2030 reapportionment occurs. > [@Bill\_Door](#): > > The issue with North Carolina is that is is gerrymandered to within an inch of its life. In 2018 Republicans got 50.4% of the votes for congress as opposed to a 48.4% share for the Democrats. Republicans won 76.9% of the congressional seats as opposed to a 23.1% share for Democrats. It’s going to take an enormous blue wave to swamp that kind of baked in inequality. Yeah, it will take a while before Dems can overcome the unfair districting and win the state house in NC (which is not alone in this ratfuckery). Until '30, we may have to content ourselves with being competitive in the three statewide offices. This is an issue where a Dem Congress could have some serious effect should it ever address election reform in the manner in which I want it to (and has shown very little interest in doing, to my dismay). ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/718 "2020-10-30T14:07:18Z")
It was to [Bloomberg.com](http://Bloomberg.com)…? Eh, no big deal, here’s the same info in a tweet: > ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/719 "2020-10-30T16:33:55Z")
I think gerrymandering only works when turnout is average or below. When Republicans gerrymander districts so that they’d win them say 55-45, they weren’t counting on Democrats being super motivated. A lot of those districts planned to be close wins for Republicans are going to flip. Turnout is going to be massive. There has never been an incumbent so divisive in US history if not world history. Maybe 35% of the people love him, but 50% of the people hate his guts. Blue tsunami warnings have been posted. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/720 "2020-10-30T17:54:22Z")
Yeah, this is worry some. WTF Florida? Biden can win without it but this just makes it harder. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=37)