# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 37
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/721 "2020-10-30T18:02:09Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > Yeah, this is worry some. WTF Florida? I said just yesterday that I was going to stop obessing about every detail. Of couse, it was at least a year ago that I said I would stop reading the clusterfuck thread. I heard a couple of people on CNN last night, can’t remember their names, who are concerned about the Democrats ground game in FL. If Biden loses because of Miami Dade I will lose my shit. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/722 "2020-10-30T18:41:31Z")
Nate Silver says to ignore early voting numbers. They’re notoriously deceptive, he says. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/723 "2020-10-30T18:54:55Z")
nvm. wrong thread. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/724 "2020-10-30T22:47:23Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > TEXAS > > (Because it didn’t render, more Texans have early-voted in 2020 than voted in 2016.)… My sister just told me she’d read somewhere that more people have already voted in Texas than voted in 46 states in 2016. That can’t be right, can it? > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Gerrymandering can backfire – if they gerrymandered districts to be +10 R, then in a +11 blue wave, suddenly the Democrats take back everything – not just a majority, but a HUGE majority. For example. Just in time for post-Census redistricting! :: steeples fingers :: Excellent. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/725 "2020-10-30T23:00:16Z")
Texas is, what, the 2nd largest state by population so I wouldn’t be surprised if a record # of Texans voting exceeded that of 46 states. Shows how much of a ‘non voting’ state Texas was that we’re still fourth by this ranking. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/726 "2020-10-31T06:55:57Z")
FiveThirtyEight now at Biden winning 90% of their dice throws. Biden is polling lower in Iowa than before, but higher in North Carolina. Quinnipiac polled Biden up 7 in Pennsylvania— that might seal the deal there, and thus basically that’s it. I’m not surprised Florida is looking a bit iffy for Biden. Florida is always iffy. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/727 "2020-10-31T07:00:28Z")
Did not know until now that Biden has lead in NC since March. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/728 "2020-10-31T07:01:49Z")
Barely, but yes. Bodes well for the Senate race, too, perhaps. Some call it the Virginiazation of NC. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/729 "2020-10-31T13:39:39Z")
Its all the people from further up the Rt 95 corridor moving south on the rt 95 corridor. First they changed Virginia and now NC is changing over. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/730 "2020-10-31T14:52:45Z")
Years ago there was concern on the part of Democrats that the increase of population in the Sun Belt states, which were generally conservative, would give them more electoral clout. What they failed to realize is that much of the increase was driven by more liberal immigrants from Northern states, which is shifting those states leftward. (My very liberal brother has been talking about moving from New York to North Carolina or Georgia.) ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/731 "2020-10-31T15:18:19Z")
There is a fairly good chance in 10-15 years we end up in NC or SC. I doubt I’ll be supporting the Republicans. Somehow as they moved to the right, I moved to the left. Backwards from conventional thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/732 "2020-10-31T16:11:19Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Its all the people from further up the Rt 95 corridor moving south on the rt 95 corridor That is what I did a couple of months ago, but 95 from Jersey back to my hometown in VA when I got laid off. I went to a Ruritan Club the other day to listen to some bluegrass (free and you can get a chili dog, chips and a coke for $3) and one of the players there commented on those people and people living in Northern Virginia. They are not real Virginians. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/733 "2020-11-01T01:59:34Z")
This kind of stuff really worries me. > **[‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619)** > > In 2016, pollsters Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly saw Trump coming. In 2020, they see polls again underestimating his support. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/734 "2020-11-01T04:06:05Z")
There’s always going to be worry around the possibility of another polling error. But the issue that never seems to come up with the subject of “shy” Trump voters is that the public has communicated their unhappiness with him in lots of ways beyond polls concerning the election. Polls have consistently shown that Trump compares worse to Biden on the issues that matter to voters, including COVID, racial justice, health care, and in some polls, even the economy. Trump is more broadly disliked and less trusted than Biden, and a majority of Americans feel the country is heading in the wrong direction. Given that overall state of affairs, Trump’s electoral polling is pretty much right where it should be. So is all of this the result of shy Trump voters — people who not only are afraid to say they’re voting for him, but are afraid to say they trust him, afraid to say they like him, afraid to say they think he’s taking the country in a positive direction? That doesn’t seem likely to me. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/735 "2020-11-01T04:09:51Z")
They just want conservative judges. That’s it. They will vote for the person who gives them that, no matter what. They will say bad things about him in the context of things being asked about, but those aren’t important to them. Only stopping the fetus murders and making the country into a theocracy matter. The only question is how many there are. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/736 "2020-11-01T04:12:25Z")
Thanks for that, I am back to being confident. I’ve read, can’t remember where, that the most importants factors that determine who wins are turnrout and how confident voters are about the future. Biden will get more turnout than Hillary, and he trounces Trump on the latter issue ---
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/737 "2020-11-01T07:43:57Z")
+7 for Trump in the Iowa Selzer poll. Iowa is not important in itself but the worry is that this poll is capturing something about Midwest voters that other polls are missing. Overall however Biden remains in a very strong position and that’s unlikely to change over the next few days. He has very solid PA leads of 5-7 points. He has improved his position in NC. He has decent leads in Arizona albeit from lower quality polls. On the negative side his position in Florida has worsened a bit with an ABC/WP poll showing Trump +2. But he doesn’t need Florida if he wins those other states. We should get more NYT polls soon which will be useful but I expect the final takeaway from all this will be: Biden is very strong but hasn’t quite put away the election yet. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/738 "2020-11-01T08:05:06Z")
Possibly the +7 is an outlier like that +14 for Biden in Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/739 "2020-11-01T08:38:37Z")
> **[Robert Ariail by Robert Ariail for October 29, 2020 | GoComics.com](https://www.gocomics.com/robert-ariail/2020/10/29)** > > October 29, 2020 ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/740 "2020-11-01T12:30:29Z")
> [@Lantern2](#): > > He has improved his position in NC. I’m very encouraged by the statistics on the 2020 voters who didn’t vote in the 2016 election in North Carolina. As of yesterday there were 1,198,161 voters who had not voted in the 2016 election. The 2020 voters who did not vote in 2016 are 27.6% of the 2020 voters so far. That’s a big cohort. These are voters who turned 18 since then, people who became citizens since then, people who moved here from other states, and people who were disaffected that have become more engaged. That last group might skew more towards Trump, but Republicans already had a very good turnout rate of 75% in the last election, so there’s less to pick up there. Democrats had a lower turnout of 68% so they have a better chance to pick up ground. The new voters and transplants are going to be more likely to be Joe Biden voters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=36) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=38)