# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/141 "2020-08-26T17:02:33Z")
Sorry, I’m a day late this week. 69 days until the election. Lots of state level polling. | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | 8/16/2020 - 8/18/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 856 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 9% | | Arizona | 8/21/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Change Research | 344 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | Delaware | 8/21/2020 - 8/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 710 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 21% | | Florida | 8/16/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1280 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 8% | | Florida | 8/21/2020 - 8/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 671 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% | | Florida | 8/21/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Change Research | 1262 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Louisiana | 8/6/2020 - 8/12/2020 | ALG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 7% | | Louisiana | 8/13/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1002 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 16% | | Michigan | 8/13/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Civiqs | 631 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Michigan | 8/16/2020 - 8/18/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 812 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 12% | | Michigan | 8/21/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Change Research | 809 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% | | Minnesota | 8/15/2020 - 8/18/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1141 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 0% | | New Hampshire | 8/15/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Saint Anselm College | 1042 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% | | New Jersey | 8/5/2020 - 8/13/2020 | DKC Analytics | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 19% | | New York | 8/21/2020 - 8/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1029 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 31% | | North Carolina | 8/16/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 967 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 2% | | North Carolina | 8/14/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Morning Consult | 1541 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | North Carolina | 8/21/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Change Research | 560 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% | | Ohio | 7/28/2020 - 8/3/2020 | TargetSmart/William & Mary | 1249 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% | | Ohio | 8/13/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Civiqs | 637 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even | | Pennsylvania | 8/11/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Muhlenberg College | 416 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% | | Pennsylvania | 8/13/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Civiqs | 617 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 8/16/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1006 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 8/21/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Change Research | 984 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Texas | 8/11/2020 - 8/13/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 700 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% | | Texas | 8/21/2020 - 8/22/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 764 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% | | Virginia | 8/9/2020 - 8/22/2020 | Roanoke College | 566 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 14% | | Wisconsin | 8/13/2020 - 8/17/2020 | Civiqs | 754 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% | | Wisconsin | 8/16/2020 - 8/19/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 672 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 10% | | Wisconsin | 8/14/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1011 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 1% | | Wisconsin | 8/21/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Change Research | 925 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/142 "2020-08-26T17:25:47Z")
Thanks, **Lance**. As in the U.S. Senate thread, I sure like seeing all those D’s! ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/143 "2020-08-26T19:11:45Z")
Florida feels like the big state to watch right now. Assuming there are no massive upheavals in the electoral map, FL will be a must-win for Trump. Without it, he needs to take PA plus one “blue wall” state (assuming OH is still safely red), and his campaign has basically ceded MI to Biden. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/144 "2020-08-26T19:40:45Z")
I expect things will change as we get closer to Election Day, but for the Democratic nominee to be leading in Texas — even narrowly — is nuts. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 26, 2020, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/145 "2020-08-26T19:50:06Z")
[538’s polling average for Texas](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/), which accounts for pollster quality and house effects, still has Trump up by a point and a half. That would still be amazing though. Trump won Texas by nine points in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/146 "2020-08-27T00:17:08Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > That would still be amazing though. It’s also a potential money sink for the GOP. It would be like the Democrats having to play defense in California or New York. Populous states with large cities are expensive to have to buy air time in, even if it just ends up being a few large markets and ignores places like Austin. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/147 "2020-08-28T00:40:31Z")
Yeah but not that impressive really. Think of it in terms of its shift relative to the nation. Call Biden +9 (give or take) nationwide right now. HRC was +3. So the nation has shift D +6. Texas went from Trump +9 to +1 by current polling? A shift of 8, only 2 more than the nation overall and well within polling errors. Not recalling what the Texas Congressional margin was compared to the nation in 2018? Nice to move that direction but for now Texas isn’t D unless lots else is first. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/148 "2020-08-28T03:21:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Yeah but not that impressive really. Texas at R+1.5 would be extraordinarily impressive. It would be part of D+200 margin in the electoral college (369-169). It would be the best D performance in Texas since Carter won the state in 1976. 2016 R+9.0 2012 R+15.8 2008 R+11.8 2004 R+22.9 2000 R+21.3 1996 R+4.9 1992 R+3.5 1988 R+12.6 1984 R+27.5 1980 R+13.9 Maybe you wouldn’t be impressed, but the political punditry would lose their shit about it, and rightly so. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/149 "2020-08-28T03:33:01Z")
An R+1.5 in Texas also probably means a good four or five suburban Congressional districts switching from R to D and the State House potentially falling to the Democrats (which would give them a voice in the next round of redistricting). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/150 "2020-08-28T04:00:22Z")
Well, I am glad to see that, because it means the GOP will have to waste millions campaigning there, it is no longer safely red. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/151 "2020-08-28T04:00:59Z")
It would be impressive as part of a Dem blow-out overall _nationally_, but would be a modest overperforming relative to recent Texas lean (looked it up and 2018 midterms had a popular vote of R +3.4) and possibly less than one might hope for given continued demographic shifts there. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/152 "2020-08-28T04:01:05Z")
Yes, exactly. Huge money sink. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/153 "2020-08-28T04:03:28Z")
I doubt they spend other than to match what Ds spend (which is zero sum). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/154 "2020-08-28T04:10:59Z")
Before they didnt have to spend any, and in fact the dems shouldnt bother. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/155 "2020-08-28T04:58:18Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It would be impressive as part of a Dem blow-out overall _nationally_ , but would be a modest overperforming relative to recent Texas lean (looked it up and 2018 midterms had a popular vote of R +3.4) and possibly less than one might hope for given continued demographic shifts there. The best performance by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976 would be impressive if it does, indeed, happen. Full stop. Comparing a presidential election years to midterm election is usually a pretty bad move. Even a midterm year with unusually high turnout like Texas in 2018. And even a slight improvement on 2018 results in the state would be a huge accomplishment. Democrats lost house races across Texas by 27 points in the 2014 midterms and and 20 points in 2016 before cutting that to 3.4 in 2018. Continuing to improve on that would be amazingly impressive. It was impressive when Kobe Bryant scored 50 points on January 7, 2006. It was also impressive when he scored 51 points twelve days later on January 19, 2006 despite it only being a modest improvement compared to the previously mentioned game. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/156 "2020-08-28T12:37:56Z")
I’m “impressed” if something exceeds what should be expected. If a state leaned by X _relative to the national numbers_ in recent elections, and they more or less keep that lean, it is what I’d be expecting. Those expectations are altered by changing demographics between cycles. Call it “impressive” if you want but it is not very unexpected. In 2016 Texas was 11 points more R than the nation, in 2018 it was about 9 to 10 more R than the nation. (You are right about the caution with midterms but the bias is usually _the other way_ with less D turnout). Running roughly the same lean now is not so unexpected. [Demographics in Texas have been changing](https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/texas-election-politics-demographic-change-may-force-parties-to-adjust-strategies/). This is not the same Texas population that voted for a GOP dominated by the Texas adopted Bush clan in multiple cycles. > [@](#): > > In 1980, Hispanics made up [21 percent](https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/states-change-demographic-evolution-american-electorate-1974-2060/) of Texas’s population. By 2018, that number had nearly doubled to [39.6 percent](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2019/08/09/is-demography-destiny-in-texas/). Meanwhile, whites — and especially working-class whites — have seen their numbers shrink, going from 66 percent of the state population in 1980 to 44 percent in 2015, and are projected to be just 25 percent of the state population by 2060. According to the Brookings Institution, at [28.9 years old](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2019/08/09/is-demography-destiny-in-texas/), the average Hispanic Texan is also younger than the overall state and national averages, which further favors Democrats. > > Immigration patterns may well be driving Texas’s political shift. According to a 2015 AEI study, the state has the fastest-growing population among larger U.S. states and “continues to be a consistent migration magnet.” Between July 2018 and 2019, Texas added the second-[highest number](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-census-10-states-could-lose-congressional-district-after-census-analysis-finds/) of both international immigrants and domestic migrants. Politically, the importance of population growth in an emerging battleground state cannot be understated; Texas gained four congressional seats after the 2010 census and is projected to add more after 2020. And many of these immigrants are coming from liberal states [such as California](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/06/20/many-people-are-moving-from-california-to-texas). > > It bears noting that most of Texas’s growth is occurring in its biggest cities. The state’s main metropolitan areas — Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin — are already quite blue. But smaller cities are also growing, leaving Texas [on a precipice](https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2020/2020/05/11/369135/will-2020-be-the-year-texas-becomes-a-presidential-battleground-state/) as the combined population of the most urban counties is about to exceed that of the state’s rural counties. For years now, Republicans have [struggled to appeal to city-dwellers](https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-do-well-in-texas-except-for-dallas-houston-austin-1524866549) nationwide, including in Texas. That problem will only become more pressing as Texas’s cities continue to add residents. I hope and expect that Texas can be a purple state in the not distant future, maybe a swing one, have in the past argued that it is worth investing in, but these results show a state currently still Red enough that even a national _blow-out_ (which I won’t count on) would still have it Red. Which given those shifts is something I find slightly disappointing. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/157 "2020-08-28T14:23:18Z")
But Latino Texans have to _vote_, and so far, they haven’t nearly as much as might be expected, even when Trump’s racism and anti-immigrant fervor were glaringly apparent in the 2016 campaign. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2020, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/158 "2020-08-29T03:53:10Z")
True. How much of that is due to the fact that eligible Hispanic voters are young compared to all eligible voters, and will there improve as the population ages? > **[Latinos in the 2016 Election: Texas](https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/fact-sheet/latinos-in-the-2016-election-texas/)** > > This profile provides key demographic information on Latino eligible voters and other major groups of eligible voters in Texas. All demographic data are > [@](#): > > - **Age.** One-third (32%) of Hispanic eligible voters in Texas are ages 18 to 29, similar to the share of all Latino eligible voters nationwide (33%) in that age range. By contrast, only 24% of all Texas eligible voters and 22% of all U.S. eligible voters are ages 18 to 29. I doubt it explains the low turnout completely but it is something that should improve each cycle. (And is why I think LV vs RV is especially important to watch for in Texas polling.) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/159 "2020-08-29T15:22:57Z")
And what’s Bernie been up to…? > **[Bernie Sanders promised to go all in for Biden. Here's what that looks like |...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/29/politics/bernie-sanders-joe-biden-voting/index.html)** > > Bernie Sanders loves the campaign trail. He wants to be "running around the country" hosting rallies, organizing canvasses and leading marches to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2020, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/160 "2020-08-29T16:32:45Z")
> **[Is The Electoral Map Changing?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/)** > > With President Trump and Joe Biden on the ballot, will Iowa or Ohio move further right in 2020? Will Georgia and Texas move further left? We looked at how much more Republican or Democratic 16 swing states have been relative to the country since... Very relevant to this thread. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=9)