# Swing state polling and the electoral college map **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2020, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/161 "2020-08-29T19:48:04Z")
Sorry to double post but the 538 bit above got me thinking about something beyond the obvious bit regarding battleground states’ partisan leans and how they are and are not shifting per current poll results … The perennial bugaboo of likely voter models on forecasts. There are variations of the secret sauce but generally they rely on some formula of stated intent to vote, whether or not they voted last time, and weighting by demographic past performance. Let’s focus on Pennsylvania for an example. Pennsylvania leaned slightly D in 2012. In 2016 it leaned slightly R. 538’s poll aggregation going into the 2016 election had Clinton up by 3.7. But we all know what happened: some who voted D in 2012 and said Clinton did not show up on Election Day, even though polls counted them as “likely” to, and some more who said Trump showed up, even though their lack of voting last time had them not pegged as “likely” to. It’s probably not the only reason for individual state polls to have been off by a couple of percent, but it seems that LV models missing the mark with shifts in states relative to their previous leans was a big part of the state polling misses. Was 2016 an aberration? If so do atypical turnouts last time (and thereby being a past voter) accurately predict LV behavior this time or not? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2020, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/162 "2020-08-29T20:56:33Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Was 2016 an aberration? If so do atypical turnouts last time (and thereby being a past voter) accurately predict LV behavior this time or not? IMO … Atypical situations trigger atypical turnouts which deliver atypical = unpredictable results. Two boring establishment candidates such as Clinton vs Dole or Bush 2 v Gore probably run pretty true to historical form. The novelty of Obama in 2008 and to a lesser degree in 2012 or both Trump and Hillary in 2016 knocked the pollsters for a loop. based mostly on the people who did or didn’t turn out when the opposite was expected. Clearly 2020 will be hugely atypical. Between Trump, COVID, BLM, the RW militias, the USPS, there’s almost nothing about this election that is ordinary. Except maybe Joe Biden. Although even he sauced that up (for good or ill) with Kamala Harris. The other gotcha is that as turnout has been on a downtrend for decades, the voting power of the normally-apathetic set is amplified. It only takes something motivating a smaller and smaller percentage of that larger & larger cohort to upset the predictions. For all these reasons I personally put very large error bars on top of the pollsters’ error bars. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2020, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/163 "2020-08-29T21:28:53Z")
I’m nervously completely agreeing that the extreme atypical nature of this specific time will make LV models very very hard to do well, and as you put it superimposing extra large error bars is indicated. But I think you are mistaken about that “other gotcha”. [See here.](http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present) From 1972 to 2000 presidential election voter turnout averaged mid 50%s. In 2004 it hit over 60% for the first time since 1968 and only dropped slightly below it in 2012, staying over otherwise. 2016 was 60.1 and only 2008 at 61.6 was higher since 1972 (2004 tied) Midterm turnout also pretty flat low since 1974, 38.1 to 42 range, dropping in 2014 to a miserable 36.7. But in 2018 jumped to 50%. There is really no long term downward trend of turnout. But does huge midterm turnout in the 2018 presage big increases in 2020, or do various obstacles, from pandemic to voter suppression to just lack of traditional GOTV approaches, tamp it to lower than 2016 or even 2012 numbers? And who is actually likely to vote despite those obstacles? ---
**Author:** ![Kimera757](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimera757/32/3765_2.png) [@Kimera757](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimera757)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/164 "2020-08-29T22:04:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > True. How much of that is due to the fact that eligible Hispanic voters are young compared to all eligible voters, and will there improve as the population ages? Texas is a pretty conservative state. Any time I see references to Texas’s high Latino population, I always wonder if Texas Latinos are more conservatives than Latino Americans in general. I skimmed the report you linked to and didn’t see that info there. I was looking at Wisconsin results a couple of days ago. At the time, the best pollsters were rated B/C, and Biden was ahead by 4.3% (across six polls), with Trump leading in one (by one) and tied (in one). Biden was ahead by 10% in one poll (that has to be an outlier). ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2020, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/165 "2020-08-31T01:28:17Z")
Early post-convention polling isn’t looking good for Twitler: [Joe Biden remains ahead. Donald Trump's still in trouble in first post-convention polling | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-biden-post-convention-polling/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2020, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/166 "2020-08-31T15:25:20Z")
So no boost, that’s good. Now back to keeping an eye on the Electoral College polling. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/167 "2020-09-01T15:29:13Z")
> **[Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States](https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/)** > > Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest prompted by the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., the state of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden stands largely unchanged... 538 give MC a B/C, so not the greatest. Brian ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/168 "2020-09-01T15:48:42Z")
Biden’s up by ten in Arizona? Sweet! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/169 "2020-09-01T16:05:53Z")
Pollapalooza! Nine weeks to go. | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 947 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 2% | | Arizona | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 943 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% | | Colorado | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 601 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% | | Colorado | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 638 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% | | Florida | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 3484 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Florida | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 3790 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | Georgia | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1265 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 1% | | Georgia | 8/24/2020 - 8/25/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 782 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% | | Georgia | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1392 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Massachusetts | 8/25/2020 - 8/27/2020 | Emerson College | 763 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 69% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 39% | | Michigan | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1212 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% | | Michigan | 8/14/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1048 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 1% | | Michigan | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1424 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% | | Minnesota | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 615 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 8% | | Minnesota | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 647 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% | | Missouri | 8/26/2020 - 8/28/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1015 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 11% | | Nevada | 8/20/2020 - 8/30/2020 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas | 682 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 5% | | North Carolina | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1493 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | North Carolina | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1567 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | Ohio | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1744 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 4% | | Ohio | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1811 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1777 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% | | Pennsylvania | 8/13/2020 - 8/19/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 801 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 8% | | Pennsylvania | 8/13/2020 - 8/19/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 801 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 10% | | Pennsylvania | 8/17/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Franklin & Marshall College | 681 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 7% | | Pennsylvania | 8/20/2020 - 8/24/2020 | GQR Research (GQRR) | 971 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 9% | | Pennsylvania | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 2158 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% | | Texas | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 2559 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 1% | | Texas | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 2632 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% | | Wisconsin | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 811 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 9% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/170 "2020-09-01T16:10:45Z")
If Biden wins Florida, then that’s all she wrote, right? ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/171 "2020-09-01T16:35:12Z")
Yes. If Trump loses FL (and assuming PA is safely blue), he needs to run the Midwest table by winning OH, MI, WI _and_ MN. That’s not impossible, but it’s really unlikely (he lost MN in 2016, and nobody thinks he has a chance in hell in MI). ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2020, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/172 "2020-09-01T16:44:53Z")
(Well, nobody except the Trafalgar group apparently. 😄) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/173 "2020-09-02T05:03:27Z")
So Florida is once again vital, and is once again led by a GOP governor closely aligned with the Republican candidate. What could possibly go wrong…? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/174 "2020-09-02T13:12:48Z")
> **[No bounce in support for Trump as Americans see pandemic, not crime, as top...](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/09/02/poll-no-bounce-in-support-for-trump-as-americans-see-pandemic-not-crime-as-top-issue/24608495/)** > > President Donald Trump's attempt to make civil unrest a central theme of his re-election campaign has yet to boost his political standing, as most Americans do not see crime as a major problem confronting the nation and a majority remain sympathetic... ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/175 "2020-09-02T13:50:44Z")
Vital for Trump. Biden can win without FL, Trump pretty much can’t. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/176 "2020-09-02T15:48:28Z")
This may have gotten lost in the big batch of polls I posted Tuesday, but Morning Consult did a neat little experiment here. They polled each of 11 swing states both immediately before and immediately after the convention in an effort to measure convention bounce. It’s nice to get polls from the same pollster, with the same methodology, in the same timeframe, across a bunch of states. Here are those polls again, grouped nicely for easier reading. This shows a slight shift toward Biden on average, but most of that is a huge shift in Arizona. Without Arizona it’s basically flat. | State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 947 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 2% | | Arizona | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 943 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% | | Colorado | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 601 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% | | Colorado | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 638 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% | | Florida | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 3484 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% | | Florida | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 3790 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | Georgia | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1265 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 1% | | Georgia | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1392 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | Michigan | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1212 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% | | Michigan | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1424 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% | | Minnesota | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 615 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 8% | | Minnesota | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 647 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% | | North Carolina | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1493 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% | | North Carolina | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1567 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% | | Ohio | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1744 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 4% | | Ohio | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 1811 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% | | Pennsylvania | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 1777 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% | | Pennsylvania | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 2158 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% | | Texas | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 2559 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 1% | | Texas | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 2632 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% | | Wisconsin | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 788 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% | | Wisconsin | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 811 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 9% | [Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/) ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/177 "2020-09-02T16:20:07Z")
Pennsylvania is [potentially tightening.](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/02/biden-lead-poll-pennsylvania-407682) ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/178 "2020-09-02T17:33:41Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > So Florida is once again vital, and is once again led by a GOP governor closely aligned with the Republican candidate. What could possibly go wrong…? Which is why I always argue the Ds should avoid the HRC mistake of 2016 by putting all their eggs in the Florida basket while ignoring other, less flakey states. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2020, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/179 "2020-09-02T22:32:26Z")
Newest polls in 538 show improvement for Biden in North Carolina, Minnesota, and Arizona — enough put him back at winning 70 out of 100 iterations of their model. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2020, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/180 "2020-09-03T00:59:24Z")
Yep, they’ve changed it from Biden is _slightly favored_ to win to Biden is _favored_ to win. I’m guessing those new polls have nudged things in that direction. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994.md?page=10)