# Swing state polling and the electoral college map

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [June 3, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994 "2020-06-03T17:47:01Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 103

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**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [August 4, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/swing-state-polling-and-the-electoral-college-map/854994/103 "2020-08-04T16:18:38Z")

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> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#):
>
> That’s right, if you state it in probabilities, you can never be wrong.
> 
> If the result matches the probability you calculated, everybody says YOU were right, and you let them.
> 
> If the result doesn’t match the probability you calculated, you say GIGO.
> 
> Great racket.

You can compare probabilistic forecasts in a number of ways to determine which is more accurate. One such way is the [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score).

I run a (very unpopular) monthly probabilistic forecast contest right here on the SDMB that uses Brier scores… [July 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863).

The August one will be open in a couple weeks. I look forward to your entry demonstrating that you can never be wrong.

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